Academy Award speculation thread

[TheMightyFavog]

OK, Nominations don't come out for two months, So, judging by what you have seen so far who do you think is going to be nominated?

[TheMightyFavog]

1. Best Animated Feature...

IMHO, Cars is going to run away with it.

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. I didn't like Cars.

And I love Pixar. I thought that Cars looked beautiful, but that the story was a weak compilation of all other Pixar movies. Happy Feet may have a shot at this one.

[philosophie_en_rose]

10. I hope Happy Feet wins.

It's so far beyond Cars.

[FredScuttle]

2. My $.02 (from the films I've seen this year)

mind you, some of these aren't my personal picks, but rather what I think the voters will go for

Best Picture: The Departed, Flags of our Fathers, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, United 93

Best Actor: Jack Nicholson (The Departed), Matt Damon (Departed), Edward Norton (Illusionist)

Best Actress: Helen Mirren (The Queen), Meryl Streep (Devil Wears Prada), Annette Benning (Running With Scissors)

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine), Steve Carrell (Little Miss Sunshine), Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland), Mark Wahlberg (The Departed), Martin Sheen (The Departed)

Best Supporting Actress: about the only worthy performances I've seen in this category this year came from Little Miss Sunshine - Abigail Breslin & Toni Collette

Best Director: Martin Scorcese (Departed), Clint Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers), Stephen Frears (The Queen), Paul Greengrass (United 93)

plus...Borat has to get some love from the Academy this year. In what has been a dismal year in film, that movie was a shot across the bow.

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. That's a pretty good list.

Little Miss Sunshine and United 93 are my favorites so far this year. I think Alan Arkin is a shoo-in and it would be great to see Abigail Breslin get a nomination.

The only one I disagree with you on is Flags of Our Fathers; not because of its quality (I haven't seen it), but because it bombed at the box office. In fact, Warner Bros. has moved up the release date of Eastwood's companion film, Letters From Iwo Jima, to December to qualify it for an Oscar run partly because of this. I think that one will be more likely to get the nomination.

[FredScuttle]

5. Good point

I was impressed by Flags of our Fathers, but its failure at the box office does weaken its chances. I was figuring that Clint is God to the Academy voters and that even tepid box office returns can't take the luster off his reputation in Hollywood. I'm looking forward to seeing Letters from Iwo Jima.

There is a whole slew of movies coming out in the next 1.5 months, so there may be some nominees in there. I know Dreamgirls is getting a lot of Oscar buzz.

[CBHagman]

6. Based on buzz and what I've seen...

This could be the year that Martin Scorsese loses his perpetual bridesmaid status and wins a Best Director Oscar (for The Departed), though with the Academy you never know.

If they give another Best Actor Oscar to Jack Nicholson, though, I am personally kicking in the screen of my TV. One of my bitterest complaints about the Academy is how they will nominate past winners (Dustin Hoffman, Jack Nicholson, et al) without acknowledging worthy candidates who aren't household names. For example, Nicholson won for As Good as it Gets, and Ian Holm was never even nominated for his critically acclaimed turn in The Sweet Hereafter. The Academy strikes me insular and lacking in imagination. They neglect worthy directors in PRECISELY the same way, or so it appears.

Okay. End of rant. Also possible:

Toni Collette (truly a deserving nominee for her entire body of work) for Best Supporting Actress (Little Miss Sunshine).
Frances de la Tour, same category, for The History Boys.
Richard Griffiths, Best Supporting Actor, The History Boys.
Michael Sheen for Best Supporting Actor (as Tony Blair in The Queen).

Perhaps the only shoo-ins I can think of are the various Departed-related nominations (Scorsese, Nicholson), plus Meryl Streep (either actress category) for The Devil Wears Prada, Helen Mirren for The Queen, and possibly Annette Bening for Running with Scissors. I'll be astonished if any one of those people fails to snag a nomination.

But we aren't done yet with the rollout of films for the holiday season, when they do save a number of serious dramas for consideration.

By the way, perhaps we should make friendly wagers as to which departed talents will be left out of the "In Memoriam" segment this year. They always omit someone, either due to time constraints or just plain failure to acknowledge. The left out the director Krzysztof Kieslowski once (and made up for it the next year) and completely forgot Oscar-nominated actress Dorothy McGuire another time.

We know they'll remember Robert Altman, Glenn Ford, Don Knotts, Maureen Stapleton, and probably Jack Warden, but will they pick up on Valli, Barnard Hughes, Marian Marsh, and various others?

I also predict massive exploitation of Daniel Craig in his new role as James Bond.

[otohara]

7. Blood Diamond

I hear DiCaprio is very good - I'm looking forward to seeing it.

[Montauk6]

8. I heard positive buzz about Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland"

[philosophie_en_rose]

9. I think Dreamgirls will be on the lists.

I've only seen parts of it, but the woman playing Effie and Jamie Fox deserve nominations.

(Beyonce Knowles had best not beat Helen Mirren, though. We would not be amused.)

[LostinVA]

11. Helen Mirren -- Best Actress