It Was PAINFUL Watching Monday's Deal Or No Deal

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

So, they start by saying that this was the Final "Million Dollar Mission" show.

She gets 8 of the 26 Cases with $1,000,000, just under a 1/3rd chance of having the Million.

In her first round, she has to pick 6 Cases to open.

She picks FIVE of the eight $1M cases in the 1st Round!! Now she's down to a 3 in 20 chance of having a $1M case.

In the end, she did the logical thing, and took the offer of about $110,000, as she had 5 cases, and only One $1M case left. The next highest case was $400.

Of course, the end was even more tragic. She Did have a $1M case. If only she had been able to leave another $1M case in play, she would have won.

Figures that they would stop the "mission." How Lame! If it's really a "mission," they should keep going until someone actually wins it.

[Hugin]

1. She should have know her odds of picking the $1M case initially were almost...

50/50.

That's how I would've bet.

But, over time watching that show, I've come to appreciate anyone walking away with anything.

But, this was a special case. <--- Pun.

The offers were the same as a regular game even though there were a higher number of $1M cases.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

2. Not True

The offers were only the same, because she managed to knock out so many cases early in the game.

The people who kept more than 1 $1M case until towards the end, were getting much higher offers, since there were more chances they had a winning case.

If she had 2 cases with $1M, and one other case, her offer would have been over $500K most likely. With 3 cases and only 1 with $1M, it is far less probability, and she has no safety net. The offers reflect that.

That's why it's important to keep at least 2 high value cases in play, because they know you're more likely to take an offer, if you have only a 1 in 5 chance of being a big winner.

[Hugin]

3. I've decided the one job in the world I couldn't do would be to open those cases...

! :scared:

Sorry, I was talking about the offers over the entire 'MDM' and not in that one instance.

Yes, she blew through those $1M cases in a hurry and by the middle of the second round it
was pretty much a typical game. EXCEPT for the fact her odds of picking a $1M case as her
case were greatly improved. To me, it would've been worth it to play out the round. I don't
know what kind of compensation or consolation type offers are given to players for appearing.

The recent game that was PAINFUL for me to watch was the NFL offer. Well, all of the special
offers. It was the guy's DREAM and even if he'd won the $1M he couldn't buy a package like the
one they had put together for him. I'm not that into anything, but, I think I'd go for one of
those special packages. I haven't seen anyone do it yet and some of them are very good prizes.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

4. The Packages Are Usually Offered Earlier

Nobody takes them, because they're SURE that they hold the $1M, and would gladly give up the "once in a lifetime" prize, with that stupid belief.