US Senate '06 Thoughts

[displacedyankeedem]

1. Could two term governor O'Bannon knock off Lugar in Indiana? I haven't herad anything bad about the guy, and Lugar isn't getting any younger.
2. I think the best guy to run against Talent will be Gephardt, who is increasing looking pretty lackluster as a Presidential candidate(too much flip-flopping on issues)
3. I have been continually impressed by Martin Frost's willingness to stand up to Tom DeLay(it's amazing how much that guy reminds me of Dale Gribble from King of the Hill). I would love to see him take on Hutchinson in '06.
4. Unless the Democrats run Ron Klink again, Santorum will soon have MUCH MUCH more time to be writing editorials, as he will no longer have to fulfill the arduous duties of being a US Senate.

[cherryperry]

1. re: #4

no more Rick Santorum; start spreading this on Republic Press and everywhere else you can think of: Santorum practices Satanism!

[jiacinto]

2. I can answer some of these

1. O'Bannon is unpopular per IN DUers. I think that maybe Baron Hill (D) might be a good candidate, but that depends on what IN DUers say--and I defer to them on this one.

2. I would rather have Claire McKaskill run for this position but she is running for Gov. I can't think of a candidate to run here.

3. Santorum is going to be hard to beat. But it can't be done.

[NewJerseyDem]

3. Some thoughts

I think that we have at least some chance to pick up seats in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Texas, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada and Montana.

RI- It will be very tough to knock off Lincoln Chafee because he is a liberal republican and because his last name is Chafee. However, if he doesn't vote liberal enough or if we have a good enough candidate like Patrick Kennedy than we might just have a chance. Also, it is possible the republicans will be stupid enough to kick him out in the primary but they probably aren't that idiotic.

PA- Rick Santorum is clearly too conservative for Pennsylvania but he did win in 2000. Our biggest problem will be that he may be the republican leader by then. Frist is clearly unpopular and it is possible that Santorum will challenge. It will be hard even if Santorum isn't the republican leader because Santorum is still such a major player in the senate.

VA- George Allen will be hard to beat but we will have a good chance if Governor Mark Warner runs. Warner is extremely popular and almost knocked off John Warner back in 1996 and that was before Mark Warner was governor. However, if Warner doesn't run then this seat should be very difficult to pick up. God there are a lot of Warners in Virginia. It would be very confusing if they were to have two Senator Warners.

TN- Bill Frist probably won't run for reelection and will instead run for president in 2008. I'm not entirely sure that he will keep his promise, but if he does this seat could be ours. Harold Ford, Jr is expected to run and he will be a great candidate.

IN- Lugar might retire and if he does Frank O'bannon would be a good candidate. This state leans republican but isn't so red that democrats can't win here. Bayh is very popular and O'bannon got 56% of the vote in 2000 so Indiana does like some democrats. If Lugar stays I reallly doubt that he can be beaten.

MO- Talent won in a very narrow election and Missouri is certainly a swing state. There are many potential candidates including McCaskill, Nancy Farmer (assuming she loses to Bond in 2004), Gephardt, and Joe Maxwell. This race will probably be very close.

TX- Hutchison will probably win if she runs. However, she is often mentioned as a possible candidate for Governor in 2006. Gov. Perry might run for senate to replace her. I doubt Frost will run considering he is in line to become Rules Committee Chairman if the Democrats take back the House. However, there are a lot of other Congressmen that could run. I think this seat will be extremely tough for any Democrat to win especially if Bush is still in the White House.

OH- DeWine got 60% in 2000 in what was otherwise a pretty good year for democrats. Clearly he will be the favorite and considering our lack of good candidates for 2004 it will be tough to find someone for 2006. Still, there is some hope here considering that Ohio is still somewhat of a swing state, but DeWine will probably win.

AZ- Jon Kyl didn't even have an opponent in 2000. I don't know why the democrats couldn't find anyone to challenge him. It will be very tough to knock off Kyl but this state is becoming increasingly a swing state. Again, like Ohio, I seriously doubt that we can win here but there is at least a small chance.

NV- John Ensign seems really popular here and won easily to win his first term in 2000. The republicans will really have an advantage, but if there is a democratic sweep than maybe we could win here.

MT- Conrad Burns nearly lost in 2000. I don't know if it was that Schweitzer was just a great candidate or if Montanans don't like the ineffective, racist senator Conrad Burns. Max Baucus has won here many times so this state can elect democrats. Schweitzer is running for governor so we may have to find another candidate. AG Mike McGrath or Auditor John Morrison have both won statewide offices but I don't know if they are considering a run for Senate.

[Composed Thinker]

5. Chafee

He defeated one of my mom's friends (well, he's the wife of one of her childhood best friends, and we live in New York, so...) in the Senate in 2000. As you said, he's a liberal Republican, and there have to be some Republicans in congress--or so the theory goes--so hopefully, he's not the one knocked out.

[Ediacara]

6. Montana

I think Schweitzer will become governor in 2005, so I doubt he'd jump into another campaign. Burns will not last past the 2006 election, and may not even run, he's not really very young, and he's only getting older. I think Mark McGrath is the best choice to run for Senate in 2006, and I think he has a good chance. Montana is gradually trending blue :-)

[mndemocrat_29]

7. Some Thoughts

RI-Totally agree. I think that Patrick Kennedy could knock out Lincoln Chafee. Rhode Island is so Democratic that Chafee will always be pretty vulnerable and I doubt Repukes will spend a lot nationally to keep him in the Senate. If we can take this seat, it will be fairly easy to keep (ala Jack Reed).

PA-Bob Casey, Jr. can beat Rick Santorum

VA-George Allen is popular, but Gov. Mark Warner can do this. However, if it looks like Sen. John Warner is going to step down in 2008, Mark Warner would probably wait and run there, where he most assuredly would win.

TN-Frist will most likely retire, leading the way for Harold Ford, Jr. to take the seat.

IN-O'Bannon's probably too old to take this seat, but Rep. Baron Hill would be a force to be reckoned with.

MO-Joe Maxwell will beat Jim Talent (who lost to Bob Holden, a less-than-first-rate campaigner, and nearly lost to Jean Carnahan, who most also a poor campaigner).

TX-Though it will be difficult, Texas could be on the map if this is Perry running.

OH-We can beat DeWine. Lee Fisher, Sherrod Brown, or Ted Strickland are all appealing candidates who could take this.

AZ and NV-Though we may have some decent candidates (Ed Pastor and Shelley Berkley come to mind), I doubt that we can win these seats, unless a sweep is occuring.

MT-Schweitzer came out of nowhere and nearly beat Burns. This seat (along with Missouri and Pennsylvania) will be our best shot at a win. Mike McGrath will be the candidate.

Overall, I think that 2006 will be a race that could give Democrats as many pickups as we received in the 2000 Senate races.

[ButterflyBlood]

13. in VA

Warner is term limited to only one term, so in 2005 he'll be out of a job. For that reason alone he'll probably take on Allen, he did very well against the far more popular John Warner. And even if he does loses I can see him trying again for John Warner's seat in 2008, which should pretty easy considering the state is trending more and more Democratic.

[ButterflyBlood]

12. I heard beating Kyl could be a piece of cake

he's not too popular, just seen as an empty suit who doesn't do anything and very much pales in comparison to McCain. The Democrats have a very good shot if they can get a good candidate.

[jiacinto]

15. Terry Goddard?

He is the AG? Could he run?

[mndemocrat_29]

4. 2006 Senate Races

1. Frank O'Bannon will be 76 in 2006 and I doubt he'll want to begin a Senate career. I think that Rep. Baron Hill would be our best bet, especially if Lugar retires. Hill's district is moderate and he's constantly in the shadow of his predecessor, Lee Hamilton. In the Senate, he'd only have to run tough elections every six years, not every two.

2. Gephardt won't run. This election will be Talent vs. Lt. gov. Joe Maxwell. Maxwell didn't join this year because he's running for reelection. In 2006, his seat will be safe and he'll try and take down Talent. Maxwell is positioning himself for bigger things, but is trying to keep all of his bases covered.

3. While Frost wouldn't necessarily beat Hutchison, if Kay Bailey and Gov. Perry switch races (as is being rumored), Frost could be the victor in a Perry vs. Frost matchup. This race could turn especially nasty, since Perry tried to eliminate Frost during the special session by making his district more Repuke.

4. Rick Santorum will be gone in 2006. Pennsylvanians don't typically keep their senators for a long time. If Joe Hoeffel can beat Arlen Specter in 2004, Santorum's going to be toast. My guess is that Bob Casey, Jr. will decide not to wait until 2010 to run for governor and instead take on Santorum in a Senate battle. Casey's very popular and would win.

[NewJerseyDem]

8. Casey couldn't beat Rendell

Casey lost the primary so I guess he isn't that popular with Democrats.

Wasn't Klink pro-life and isn't Casey pro-life as well? Or, am I completely wrong about that. I was under the impression that people here felt that Klink couldn't win because he was just like Santorum when it came to abortion which is Santorum's biggest problem in elctions. So, couldn't Casey have the same problem.

[mndemocrat_29]

10. Casey

I don't know about his stances on abortion, but Casey will be a force one of these elections. Ed Rendell did beat him, yes, but Rendell is one of the most talented politicians around (I'd put him in the same column as Jennifer Granholm as being basically unbeatable). I suspect that Casey could be the second-most-popular politician in the state, after Rendell (though I have no proof for that claim). We'll need someone of his stature to take down Santorum, who is adored by the hard right and will raise a lot of money. However, Pennsylvania is moving swiftly to the left and there won't be room for an archconservative like Santorum much longer.

[valphoosier]

9. Indiana

If Lugar stays, no one is beating him. (Lugar really is a stand-up guy. He's conservative, but I have a lot of respect for him.)

If he retires, O'Bannon is not the man to take the seat. 1) he is very UNPOPULAR 2) he's old... quite old.

Our best bet to win this seat (again, ONLY if lugar retires) is for Indianapolis mayor Bart Peterson to win it. This guy is going somewhere... I just don't know when or where. :-) In the 50/50 city of Indianapolis, his approval ratings are in the 70s. He is a principled version of Evan Bayh. Baron Hill.... maybe... I don't like Baron, but conservative southern Indiana seems to. Peterson, though, is the future of Indiana democrats.

[jiacinto]

14. Would Baron Hill run

nt

[valphoosier]

17. He already has...

... and he lost. I don't have any inside information, but I doubt Baron would run. He is one candidate (plus Peterson and Lt. Gov. Kernan) who MIGHT be able to take the seat. I really think that Mayor Peterson or Lt. Gov. Kernan would have the best shots, but this is all based on the HUGE assumption that Lugar would retire.

But, to answer your question, I tend to doubt Hill would run, but, as a Senator, he wouldn't have to worry about getting re-elected by small margins in his very marginal southern Indiana district.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. replies

1. O'Bannon is too old (and now I hear he's unpopular). There is no way to beat Lugar, but if retires there are people who can take the seat.
2. Gephardt could beat Talent, and also could possibly Nancy Farmer or Ronnie White
3. I can't see this seat being picked up, there have been some rumors Hutchinson and Perry will try to switch spots, but I can't see anyone beating either of them.
4. Run a pro-choice candidate or Bob Casey Jr., and Santorum is toast.

[UrbScotty]

16. I think Rendell might run against Santorum...

...and Casey could get his chance to be Governor.