Ok, math time

[weezy2736]

*I'm not supporting one candidate or the other with this post. This is just trying to make sense of the numbers and how they would seem to unfold. I don't believe any of these projections will be true, but it does give some prospective on the current situation.*

I'm going to use RealClearPolitics numbers, they're just really easy to get. If you want me to do this with other numbers, I can do that, too. Also, I'm just using a percentage vote based on probable trends because I can't find how every state votes. I DO WANT TO CORRECT THIS! If someone can help me find the information, I'll change my numbers, but after trolling around on the Wisconsin Democratic Party's website for an hour, I give up

Ok, the fun stuff:
Obama has 1,296 total delegates, 1,133 of which are pledged.
Clinton has 1,238 total delegates, 996 of which are pledged.

Because I'm not Nostradamus, I'm just going to deal with pledged delegates.

(State) (Delegates at stake) - (Obama/Clinton projected percentages {He has the lead, I'm not sexist}) - (O/C projected delegates) - (O/C projected pledged delegates) - Advantage

2/19:
Wisconsin (74) - 50/45 - 37/31 (+/-6) - 1,170/1,027 - Obama + 143
Hawaii& (20) - 55/45 - 11/9 - 1,181/1,036 - Obama + 145

3/4:
Vermont (15) - 45/55 - 7/8 - 1,188/1,044 - Obama + 144
Rhode Island (21) - 45/55 - 9/12 - 1,197/1,056 - Obama + 141
Ohio (141) - 45/55 - 63/78 - 1,260/1,134 - Obama + 126
Texas (64 - Caucus) - 55/45 - 35/29 - 1,295/1,163 - Obama + 132
Texas (129 - Primary) - 45/55 - 57/71 (+/- 1) - 1,352/1,234 - Obama + 118

3/8:
Wyoming& (12 {Closed}) - 55/45 - 7/5 - 1,359/1,239 - Obama + 120

3/10
Mississippi& (33) - 60/40 - 20/13 - 1,379/1,252 - Obama + 127

4/22
Pennsylvania (158 {Closed}) - 40/60 - 63/95 - 1,442/1,347 - Obama + 95

5/6
North Carolina (115) - 55/45 - 63/52 - 1,505/1,399 - Obama + 106
Indiana& (72) - 55/45 - 36/26 - 1,541/1,425 - Obama + 116

5/13
West Virginia& (28) - 45/55 - 12/16 - 1,553/1,441 - Obama + 112

5/20
Kentucky& (51 {Closed}) - 40/60 - 20/31 - 1,573/1,472 - Obama + 101
Oregon& (52 {Closed}) - 55/45 - 27/25 - 1,600/1,497 - Obama + 103

6/3
South Dakota& (15 {Closed}) - 55/45 - 8/7 - 1,608/1,504 - Obama +104
Montana& (16) - 60/40 - 10/6 - 1,618/1,510 - Obama + 108

6/7
Puerto Rico& (55) - 45/55 - 25/30 - 1,643/1,540 - Obama + 103

So, if these off-the-wall picks are right, Obama ends with a 103 pledged delegate lead. What about Florida?

Florida (210) - 33/50 - 70/105 - 1,713/1,645 - Obama + 68

So, unless Clinton goes crazy in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, and hold back Obama's charge through Indiana and North Carolina, it seems like she'll be going to the convention with less pledged delegates. None of the pundits are talking about how North Carolina and Indiana could completely cancel out Pennsylvania, which I see as somewhere between plausible and likely.

Oh, yeah: &-There is no recent or reliable polling for these states, so far as I know. If anyone can find more reliable sources for information, or can convince me that my numbers are wrong (they probably are,) I'll update this.

Look - This post isn't about division, these are just the numbers as I see them now. They will change, but for now, this is about what I expect.