So Who Really Won Texas?

[DeepModem Mom]

TIME: So Who Really Won Texas?
By MICHAEL DUFFY/WASHINGTON AND HILARY HYLTON/AUSTIN
Thursday, Mar. 13, 2008


Voters sign in during the Democratic caucus in Precinct 437 in Austin's south side Tuesday, March 4, 2008, in Austin, Texas.
(Harry Cabluck/AP)

....despite what you may have heard, it's going to be weeks, and probably months, before we know who actually won the complex March 4 Texas primary-cum-caucus. And even then both campaigns are liable to still be disputing the results when they get to Denver in August.

We do know this much about Texas: Clinton and Obama virtually split the state's 126 pledged delegates. Clinton won 65 delegates to Obama's 61, all allocated according to the results of the primary, which Clinton won 51% to 47.4%.

But as many Americans have learned over the last few months, caucuses aren't so easy to calculate — and they seem designed for never-ending fights even after the math is done. There were some 8,247 local gatherings around Texas last week, and precinct chairs are supposed to report their results to 254 county chairs quickly (except, this being Democratic politics in Texas, big city precincts report in a different fashion — but never mind them for now.) Based on the precinct results, county conventions are supposed to elect delegates to a state convention — and it is at that state convention on June 6 that everyone votes again to decide who goes to Denver pledged to Clinton or Obama. This three-step process will determine how the 67 caucus delegates in Denver are divided.

That kind of clarity is still a long way off. Because of an overwhelming turnout on caucus night, Texas Democrats are still counting the ballots, cards, and even the loose slips of paper that precinct captains handed out and then collected on the night of March 4, when roughly one million people turned out. Some precincts were so overwhelmed with attendees that some precinct chairs went to Kinko's to run off extra ballots while others, according to the AP, simply tore down the "DEMOCRATS VOTE HERE" signs and used the backs for signatures — one column for Clinton, another for Obama. About 300 people showed up at one caucus site in Austin only to discover the small building arranged for the meeting (and which might have accomodated 50 people) was locked. So they caucused outside in the chilly night using a flashlight, loaned by a photographer, to see the caucus ballots. Needless to say, some of those results are likely to be disputed.

It's anyone's guess who will come out on top in that first-stage count, but Obama appears to have an edge. For much of the last week, the state party was posting "unofficial" returns on its website — txdemocrats.org — chiefly for reporters. With 41% of the precincts reporting, Obama was leading Clinton by a margin of 56% to 44%....In any case, the last unofficial margin — if it held — would give Obama 31 delegates and Clinton 27, with nine still to be determined....The slow pace of the counting (and some other reasons too complex to mention here) led the state party to halt its progressive count and simply hold off announcing the precinct results until March 29....

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1722341,00.html?xid=site-cnn-partner

[leftofcool]

1. According to Rasmussen

it doesn't matter now. MI is now the key player in the GE, at least Ras says so. But, I never trust the polls

[Jane Austin]

2. It will be interesting to see if the Limbaugh

voters who caucused for HRC at the precinct conventions election night and were selected as delegates, actually show up for the county conventions March 29.

At our precinct, there were only enough Clinton people attending after the sign-in that all of them were made delegates, but I don't know if any of the Limbaugh Republicans actually stayed that long.

[cosmicsheep]

3. Who won Texas?

This seems germaine to the topic at hand -

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/03/clinton-delay-the-delegate-cou.html

Hillary wants to delay the delegate count.

She sure seems to have an awful lot of demands theses days.

[Cha]

4. I think Obama won..

how's that?