A Serious Question for Dean Supporters: Electoral Victory? How?

[DeanandBushSuck]

So many Dean supports are confident that they can win the nomination. Let us pretend he does. Can anyone in detail explain how Dean would get 270 electoral votes? Please include which states he would win, and why.

Rules:

1) You can pick any Democrat you want for Vice President
2) Bush can choose Ridge(PA) for Vice President if you Choose Graham or Richardson for Vice.
3) You have to use the 2004 electoral votes of each state, not the 2000
4) You can assume that the economy is the worst it has been in 20 years.
5) You can assume that we are still in Iraq.
6) No super tricks. Like Dean gets Texas and Utah, that isn't going to happen.
7) You must have sound reasons for each state he will win.
8) It is ok to admit you can't get to 270 electoral votes

[DemPopulist]

1. It's a very legitimate question but...

you'll get nothing but flames as long as you have that nickname. :smoke:

[DeanandBushSuck]

3. I don't doubt it, none the less, the fact that they can't answer the . .

question shows their weakness. I don't really care. I am a liberal, everyone that knows me knows that. The fact that they prejudge me shows they are no better then Bush. I have Communists that love me, lol.

[keek]

36. you have a lot of nerve

being new to this board and claiming that many of us are no better than Bush. You are obviously underestimating how horrible Bush is by making such a claim. Talk about prejudging... this is what, the third post on your thread and you already prejudged people saying that they couldn't answer your question. Going into a serious discussion about the 2004 election in mid 2003 is just a little premature. We still have a long way to go. What is important is watching the fundraising, the polls, and watching how each candidate develops his/her campaign as the primaries get closer. The candidates are now concentrating on the primary states so that they will have the opportunity to appeal to the nation as a whole in 2004.

The fact is that Dean's popularity is rapidly growing and he did a phenomenal job at fundraising this quarter. If you want to continue to deny and ignore these facts, then so be it, but do not come here to antagonize. It doesn't help our (the democrats) cause. If you want to debate the issues, and how or if Dean's views will appeal to a wide range of Americans, then pose the question properly.

Look, i know that you are working on your third degree in college. I knew people that sounded like you when I was working on my history degree. Being in a classroom, a lecture, writing papers, and being in the college environment is an awesome experience that all Americans should take advantage of, however if you spend too long in that environment, then you start to forget about being practical or pragmatic and you become idealistic and cynical. This is the impression that I have of you.

[aquart]

2. Are you prepared to present the electoral workup for your candidate?

Or are you unable to predict how the nation will feel in a year?

Go away, you silly child. Come back with a sensible question.

[DeanandBushSuck]

4. Yes, what a silly question

Asking for someone to prove why their candidate can win is such a silly question. What next, asking people to say why their candidate is better then the others. We might even get really silly and start counting votes and looking a primaries in January a full 9-10 months before the election in November. We should just stick to saying our candidate is better because "I just think so" as the true measure of how we gauge chances of winning in the November election.

DJA

[MercutioATC]

12. The question was, will you show how YOUR candidate will win?

...with exactly which states he'll win 16 months in the future...

[DeanandBushSuck]

14. Yes I will, I have plenty of times.

19 States and DC have voted Democratic for prsident in the last 3 elections, most by a huge margin. That consitutes 260 electoral votes.
Clark would bring in 6 from Arkansas, and Graham, or Richarson would bring Florida with 27. This give him 293. Even if Bush picks Ridge instead of Cheney for Veep, and wins PA, Clark still has 270 electoral votes. It is also possible with a a duel ticket of two southerns to pick up a couple of other southern states.

This is all I ask. Some level of evidence. Most states has a long history of voting for particular kinds of candidates.

DJA

[MercutioATC]

19. You're basing that on who for Prez?

I'm assuming you mean Clark as VP.

[thom1102]

21. Ok, here's how.

same math, 19 states, and DC=260.

Clark as VP=6 from Arkansas subtotal=266, and some serious campaigning in West Virginia (which only leans republican)(5)= 271. That's just my amateur take.

Here is a little more serious analysis. Read it and weep.

http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html#map

Don't get me wrong, I like Clark, and think that he negates a lot of the weaknesses of all the democratic candidates. I just don't think he is ready to enter at that level. I would love to see him as any of the candidate's running mate (especially Dean).

[clar]

5. Go away

you're boring. Just. Go. Away.

[DeanandBushSuck]

10. Good answer! Short, sweet, and dodges the question

Just admit it, you don't have a clue how the electoral college operates. Bet you don't even know how many electoral votes are in California in the 2004 election? How do the numbers change? What is the next election they will change again? Which state is closest to getting another vote? Boring,yes, just like Chess is boring to a child and checkers are boring to an adult. : )

[clar]

16. Actually,

I have a pretty fair idea of how the electoral college works, though you're right I don't know how many electoral votes CA has. I know they've got more than any other state, and that the number of votes derives from the number of representatives in the U.S. congress, which in turn is based on the census. Big deal. My objection to discussing much of anything with you derives from your overheated rhetoric, boorish behavior, and, oh yeah, you're flame bait name. In addition, speculation at this point is somewhat spurious, based as it it on incomplete information. There are far too many variables, and we don't know what they are yet.

I'd like to return to my original post. Go away. Lacking that. change your moniker and attempt a respectful discussion with folks here.

[seeker4ever]

6. Wow... that's deep...

deep shit.

Give the Dean campaign a call and tell them to stop wasting time, while you're at it better weed out everbody else but your mystery candidate too.

Oh and Ms. Cleo has been gone for a while why don't you set up a psychic hotline?

Thanks for the stimulating debate.

[liberalnurse]

7. We already know you hate Dean.....

Why should we indulge? It seems futile as you just want to rant and belittle Howard Dean. I know you desire Clark.....thats fine, but please stop your hostile attack on Howard Dean. I know you are still a child as you shared this information in a previous thread so I will be forgiving.

[Le Taz Hot]

8. Attention: The author of this thread

has already been nailed by the DeanCoffeehouse Yahoo Group for spamming the boards. Notice was sent out a couple of days ago. My suggestion: Don't feed the animals. Sooner or later, he'll hang himself.

[liberalnurse]

13. Thank you for the heads-up.....I called him on this at an earlier thread.

I was a bit harsh and its not my traditional style but he really is irritating. I pegged him a freeper right away but he may just be immature as he claims to be a college student.

[ozymandius]

9. Proof?

You are asking people here to prove that Dean can win? I do not see how that can follow a logical argument since that appeal of any candidate is a cloudy mix of personal statements and personality.

However, should someone show you the mathematical equation with unassailable rhetorical prose, would you change your nickname?

[DeanandBushSuck]

11. Yes, I would, if it was serious attempt at the matter I don't think people

understand the DLC has already done the numbers and they can't get to the 270 for most of the candidates.

[seeker4ever]

17. So which one's can they get?

[MercutioATC]

18. Well, then, let's just hang it up and try again in 2008....

Seriously, we ARE 16 months from the general. You don't think that things will change by then? Clinton was below 5% at this point in his campaign, if I'm not mistaken.

I have no idea what made you so bitter, but I think if you read through the forum for a while you'll find that we're no strangers to Dean attacks. Usually, the attackers have more coherent arguements than you, though.

Read a little. Do some research. THEN you can begin the attacks (though I've always found that people who enthusiastically SUPPORT their candidate instead of whining about somebody else's usually garner more respect).

[ozymandius]

26. Let's be honest.

The DLC has been trying to unravel Dean's campaign fro the start. This has been an exercise in futility as Dean has raised too much money in a short little while. (This is vastly different from the grass roots fundraising efforts by Jerry Brown in the 1992 election.)Also consider the source: the DLC has behaved like a Republican mole organization since last November's elections.

I hope you will consider changng your screen name. A serious debate with someone "called DeanandBushSuck" (especially on ths issue) has all the gravity of debating someone who is wearing a body stocking and antlers.

[goobergunch]

28. link? (n/t)

[UrbScotty]

15. Dean/Clark

Nationally - his energy and enthusiasm will intrigue many people - including younger people and those who normally don't vote. "We're gonna give people a reason to vote," he says. Plus, in the debates, he will likely crush Bush on the economy and on Iraq, both seen as the most important issues of the election. Besides, as a running mate, Wesley Clark would bring to the table something Bush, Cheney, and Dean all lack: Military experience. These factors could help them in all 50 states.

I think they will win:

Arizona – Bush won that state by about 100,000 votes. However, I think there will be a better Latino outreach. Plus, the state Party is more organized.

Arkansas – Bush didn’t win this by much either. I think native son Wesley Clark will be on the ballot as VP.

California – Despite Davis’s lack of popularity, I think Democrats will win it easily.

Connecticut, Delaware, DC – We usually win them anyway.

Florida – Again, Latinos will be reached out to more. Besides, Gore won Florida!

Hawaii – Again, this is a Dem stronghold.

Illinois – Gore won this in a landslide, while the State GOP is in as mess.

Iowa – Iowa is a peace-loving state, and Vilsack’s endorsement would help.

Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts – do I need to say anything here?

Michigan (my home state) – Labor unions essentially gave Michigan to Gore.. Besides, Dean is more pro-gun than Gore, so that should neutralize the gun issue. The gun issue was of great importance in Michigan in 2000.

Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire: – there are a number of pro-gun voters in these astatyes as well. Plus, NH only went to Bush by about 8,000 votes.

New Jersey – A Dem-leaning state in most elections.

New Mexico – Dem Governor should help there. Also, there are many gun owners in New Mexico, too.

New York – No, I doubt Bush has much of a chance in NY.

Ohio, Oregon – Same as MN, MO, and NH, above.

Pennsylvania – Same as Michigan, above.)

Rhode Island – It’s obvious.

Tennessee – Gore lost here because of his stance on Guns. I think Dean will win here because of that.

Vermont – I won’t even say anything.

Washington – Gore won it rather easily, compared to what they expected.

West Virginia – Bush promised them the moon, and that’s how he won. Have they been getting the moon? And again the gun issue is important

Wisconsin – Dean, Clark, and Feingold all sound better than Bush, Cheney, and (I think) Newmann.

Dean/Clark 354
Bush/Cheney 184

[goobergunch]

23. I disagree with OH and AZ...

those will be tough to win. However, even without those two states Dean/Clark gets 324 EV-well enough to win.

[thom1102]

24. Do we need to reconsider NY

due to 9/11?

[UrbScotty]

25. We should, but I think we will still win NY.

I think New York is worth watching. However, Bush has basically screwed the city by not doing much in the wake of 9/11.

[CMT]

30. NY will be won

Gore won by two milion votes last time--It would take a lot to change the minds of all of those voters. Plus Bush's poll ratings in NY are lower than nation at large (which are also steadily declining) and in trial heats at this point most of our candidates are neck and neck with Bush where most every place else Bush is ahead. As a campaign is in full thrust we will gain the advantage esp with a crappy economy like NYC and NY state have.

[MrJones]

29. Nope.

The only Republican holding significant statewide office is Pataki, and his approval ratings are lower than Bush's. Schumer and Hillary are popular US Senators, and Eliot Spitzer is popular as the Attorney General. Democrats hold a 5:3 registration advantage in the state. I wouldn't take NY for granted and just ignore it, but with just a little bit of work it should be a sure thing.

[On the Road]

20. OK, Dean Wins Gore's States, Inlcuding Florida

This is base on the fact that without the one-time effect of the butterfly ballot, Gore had an additional 19,000 votes. Without the purge of erroneous felons, the margin would have been several times that.

That's over 290 electoral votes.

Dean could pick up a few other close states, too. Definitely New Hampshire. Possibly a few competitive Western states like Colorado where Dean's gun position helps rather than hurts.

Seriously, with the Democrats having a lock on NY, CA, and MA, I think the Republicans have to do some math to figure out how Bush can win again. Without Florida, all the swing states can go to the GOP and they still won't win.

[Orangepeel]

22. I think any Democrat can win Ohio

Bush won 50% of the vote in 2000, Clinton won in 1992 and 1996, and approval ratings for the republican governor are at an all time low. Winning the Gore states plus Ohio would put any candidate over the top.

I also think that Dean, with Graham as a VP has a decent chance at Florida. If he also wins West Virginia and New Hampshire (Gore losing WV was a fluke, I think, and Dean will be able to carry New Hampshire without a strong Green threat, his ability to attract independent voters, and a strong canvassing effort imported from Vermont), then he'll have 275 even without Pennsylvania. Anyway, I don't think that bush would pick Ridge for a VP. He hasn't done a great job with homeland security and he has a reputation among the fundie base for being soft on abortion.

Dean with Clark as a VP would have a strong chance at WV, NH and OH.

[dsc]

27. Ok here goes

first I dispute rule 2 Ridge is pro choice and thus has no shot at the VP slot on a Republican ticket.

There is no doubt in my mind that Dean can with what Gore won and got credit for. I think that is 262. Assuming either no Green candidate or a much weaker one than Nader and you can add in New Hamphire which Gore lost by far less than Nader's total. That give 266. Add in West Virginia which has enough anti war sentiment to have not only Byrd but two Democratic Congressmen opposed to the war and which Gore lost on guns and we have 271. In addition I think Nevada is winable that makes 276 (Yucca Mountain). Give him Graham and he has a great shot at Florida, give him Clark and he has a great shot at Arkansas, give him Edwards and a decent shot at NC, give him Richardson or Nepalitano and Arizona is in play.

[Ediacara]

31. A serious answer

not that you'll listen.....

States that I believe have a 90% chance of going to Dean (or any Democrat). Note, I don't believe he'll get 90% of the vote, just that we're virtually assured of winning them:

Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Michigan, Illinois, Maine, Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania, Massachussetts, Rhode Island, Connectict, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and DC.

That's 228 electoral votes.

The following states, I believe have a 70% chance of going to Dean:

New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconson.

This is Gore's base, and puts us at 262 electoral votes.

The following states, I believe Dean has a 51% chance of winning. In other words, a good campaign could grant us these states:

Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Tennessee, Florida, and New Hampshire.

IF we win all of those states, we would have a total of 369 electoral college votes. We actually only need just one or two to be in the clear.

That's how

[GOPBasher]

32. Dean's not my favorite, but he can win

If the economy doesn't rebound in the next year and a half, Dean can win all of Gore's states, which would give him 260 with the 2004 eV allocation. He would need ten more, which he can get with Florida (even state), Missouri (stance on guns will help), or both of W. Virginia (again, guns) and Nevada (Yucca Mountain).

Dean has about the same chance any other Dem has. Right now, against Bush, Dean polls about the same as Kerry, Gephardt or Edwards, and he's much less known than they are.

[CMT]

33. the Dean electoral stategy would be the same as every other dem

basically and it is this--carry the Gore states and two or three others as a cushion. You give me the choice of running mate and mine is Bill Richardson of NM--great ability and experience: congressman, energy secretary, UN ambassador, foreign policy troubleshooter--even Bush sent him to North Korea, and now Governor of NM. Also the first Hispanic on a national ticket--sure to rev up this critical voting bloc. I also think that Dean will attract many of the 2.8 million Nader supporters from '00--if this board is any indication there is a possibility that even if Nader runs again Dean could possibly attract half his vote.

1. New England--I think Dean will go all out to win every state of his home region. It can be done. Gore won five out of six--losing only NH. Dean should carry his homestate of Vermont over Bush and certainly even Dean haters such as yourself would acknowledge he can win Massachusetts (why even George McGovern did that!!). Also, Rhode Island is dependably Democratic. Those three are the most solid. On the second leir as leaning Democratic I would put Connecticut and Maine--they may require a couple of visits to firm up in September--but I expect they will also vote Dean over Bush. Finally the toss up state--NH. With some work and an economy which has declined since Bush became president and I think Dean will pick up votes of people who voted for Nader in 2000--I think Dean wins this states four electoral votes.

Total from New England: 35 electoral votes.

2. North Atlantic States-- Dean will win New York. He has a lot of enthusisam there and besides Bush lost NY to Gore by nearly 2 Million votes--I don't think with the economy and even 9/11 that Bush can turn it around to carry NY (doesn't matter who the candidate is). NJ has been moving Democratic since the 90's and Gore won it by almost 600,000. I think it will be more competitive but that the Democrats will win it. DC is solidly Dem. Maryland has a strong African-American population which has been continually disappointed in Bush and the DC suburbs have been getting more Democratic. For rural areas Dean's stand on guns will be a boost. Barbara Mikulski is up for re-election and she will bring out a strong vote to help the entire ticket. Maryland is in the bag. Delaware may be more competitive but it should still go Democratic based on the trends since the 90's. Finally, Pennsylvania. This one is always going to be competitive. You put Ridge on the ticket with Bush (not going to happen it will be Cheney again--but I'll play along)--ok, that brings up the issue of homeland security and how states including Pa have not gotten the money from this administration to implement it. Also, Rendell is now Governor and controls the party machinery--he is going to work very hard to gotv for two high profile races the senate race where Arlen Specter will face Hoeffel and the presidential race. Key voting blocs include African-Americans, seniors, women--it will be tight but I expect Dean will prevail even with Ridge on the ticket.

Total electoral votes from North Atlantic States: 83.

3. The South. This will be a tough region for all the democrats even for southern dems. If I were Dean I would concentrate on a handful of states. Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Six states and we would need to carry three of them. These six states have 73 electoral votes. The one most likely to switch is West Virginia with 5 electoral votes. Why? The state has seen unemployment rise under Bush, it is usually dependably Democratic, and Dean's stand on guns will neutralize that issue. Georgia--I put this state on the list in case Thurbert Baker or Shirley Franklin-two strong African-American candidates are on the ballot for the Senate. If so, this will bring out a strong African-American turnout and benefit the ticket statewide--including president. Florida, yes Gore won it, but it will still be tough--and the opportunities to steal it with Jeb in charge are still there. Louisiana, has a strong African-American vote which if turns out strongly will make this a competitive state. The AA vote did turn out strongly for Landrieu and she won in a race which Rove was working hard against her and we also had the unexpected bonus of picking up a house seat. Arkansas and Tennessee--again mobilize the base (AA) and use the gun issue to neutralize Bush. My prediction: We win West Virgina, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Total electoral votes from South: 20.

The Midwest. Illinois has been trending Democratic since 1988. In 2002, they bucked the trend and elected a straight Democratic statewide ticket. Dean has a strong organization in the state. Illinois will be for Dean. It is our anchor state in the region. Three of the states in the region gave Nader above average percentages in 2000: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. I have already said that after four years of Bush and Dean's appeal to some Naderites that he has the potential to pick up many votes there. Wisconsin and Iowa have voted Democratic in every presidential election since '88 and Minnesota in every one since '76. Of the three I would say Iowa is going to be the toughest--but doable. The economies of these three states have also declined under Bush and this is ultimately what decides an election. Also, these three states have large anti-war tendencies which will aid Dean. In Wisconsin, is a top Senate race with Feingold on the ticket. In places like Madison the turnout will be very high and this will benefit the Dean ticket as well. I think we will win Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Next Michigan, this is a toss up state like Pennsylvania and the campaign will have to give it lots of attention. Still if people vote their pocketbooks and Dean can make a convincing case for them to discard of Bush then we win this state. Also, Dean has made clear that he intends to compete in Ohio which Gore dropped out of three weeks before the election and lost by only four-points. Now Ohio won't be easy but it will force the Bush camp to also defend it. Missouri will also be competed in.

Total electoral votes from Midwest: 65--we win every Gore state by picking up Nader voters from '00 and stressing the economy and healthcare.

The West: This is the region where Richardson's selection will have the most positive impact (though nationally the latino population is also growing). Bush won 35% of the latino vote in '00 and is pushing for 40% in 2004. With Richardson on the ticket as a historic first it will not happen. In fact, pride in their favorite son will probably mean a higher turnout and percentage for the Democratic ticket--up to 70% and Bush down to 30%. A Dean/Richardson ticket will easily win on the coast: California (like Gore I doubt Dean would even have to campaign in this state), Oregon, and Washington. Oregon gave a high percentage to Nader but as stated before I believe the Nader vote will not be as high as in '00 and they won't be defecting to Bush. Next, Richardson will deliver New Mexico (Gore won it by only a few hundred votes in '00). The increase in the Latino vote will also make Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada competitive. We need to carry at least one of those three states and I think we can do it in Arizona.

Total electoral votes from the West: 88.

Total electoral votes for a Dean/Richardson ticket: 291 (21 more than necessary) and done without carrying Florida, Ohio, Texas, or Missouri.

Why Dean/Richardson wins (a Summary)
1. The progressive wing of the party hates Bush and will turn out strongly.
2. Dean is showing strength among former Nader voters. Even if Nader is on the ballot in '04 I think he will pick up half of the Nader vote from '00.
3. The Richardson selection will rev up a powerful voting bloc that Bush has been targeting--Latinos. Latino strength has been growing nationwide but it will be most potent in the west. Bush wants 40% of the Latino vote in '00 but if Dean choose Richardson not only would turnout among Latinos grow (a historic first and great enthusiasm) but I think instead of 40% of the Latino vote Bush would get between 25-30% which is worse than the 35% he got against Gore. Also, Texas has lots of Latinos which will be just as euphoric. While we won't win Texas it might force Bush to spend some time and $$ there that he otherwise wouldn't have to.
4. African-Americans who were showing great improvements under the Clinton administration is another potent voting bloc and they will not support Bush. Typically they give 85-90 percent of their votes to Dems and I expect this to be the case in 2004 since under Bush African Americans have seen their unemployment rate jump from historic lows to much higher than national average. But Dean will have to reach out to them and campaign agressively to generate enthusiasm and turnout.
5. The anti-war vote. Iraq is still an issue with the country still in chaos and our soldiers still over there with sniper deaths occuring. More people are disatisfied with the administration on the war and the $$ ($1 billion per week!!) and Dean had the forsight to be against the war from the beginning and a growing amount of people are coming to realize that we made a mistake going into Iraq.
6. Healthcare and the Economy. Typical Democratic issues and with Bush they are winnable ones. Even if the economy does begin some kind of uptick it will not be strong and the unemployment rate will not be anywhere near as low as when Bush came in. Dean, as a doctor will have great credibility on healthcare and over 3 million people have lost health insurance as president. Dean has a plan and he will campaign hard on these issues.

[mcd1982]

37. good information...

....I haven't really paid close attention to Richardson; I'll have to do that now. Picking a Latino VP is an excellent idea. I live in Texas and know it would help -- but, of course, not enough. Tony Sanchez only got about 30% of the vote for governor, but even Democrats didn't really like him.

[dsc]

34. To the original poster

You have gotten several serious replies to your post. I notice you wasted no time engaging in flame wars with people who flamed you but haven't seen one response to a substantive discussion of your issue. Why is that?

[thom1102]

35. hmmm... I wonder

nt