"Peaking too soon"

[renie408]

Somebody else wrote that and I have heard it a lot lately in several different places. That thing about Dean peaking too soon. Is there an historical precedent for this opinion? I mean, have other candidates come on as strong as he is now, only to have people lose interest by primary time?

I am not a big Dean fan, but he is sure looking strong right now. I do know that several other candidates have not 'really' started their campaigning and I will be interested to see which strategy works out to be the winning one.

[cprise]

1. Kerry and Lieberman

...peaked too soon.

Dean is already going after Bush voters.

[meegbear]

2. dean peaked months ago ...

and which candidate ISN'T going after *.

[Khephra]

6. By what account do you think he's peaked?

His ever growing meetup numbers?

His ever growing volunteer sign-up numbers?

Making the one million dollar challenge?

Appearing on tv more than any other candidate?

Having rock concert sized crowds?

The ever growing rancor from those who don't like him?

Yeah, that's the ticket. Dean's peaked.

LOL!

[liberalnurse]

8. Oh, now lets not entertain one's hobby today.

This one seeks orgasmic pleasure in taunting Dean supporters.

What a waste.

[polpilot]

9. Exactly. He's headed for the wavering repubs now. Georgie Porgie

and his Pig Farm Friends can only count on 20% of the vote (hard core mostly non-readers) and the rest is up for grabs. Send the national guards troops to Iraq and he could wind up with les than 30% popular vote. He's toast and now it's just a matter of how burnt black the toast will be. He CAN'T get troops or the campaign is sunk. My...my...my.. what to do??

Dean '04

[CWebster]

3. the guy doesn't seem to rest on his laurels

He is always looking for the next hill to climb. It's gonna be damn interesting.

[roughsatori]

4. You don't know if someone has peaked until they are on the way down

A peak can only be viewed in retrospection. It looks to me like Dean is still on his way up the peak. Has not reached his zenith yet. A candidate would be foolish to slow down their momentum for fear of peaking. That approach would insure that their peak was much lower than it could have been.

[liberalnurse]

5. He is a locomotive...A Silverstreak!

No stopping him now....He is the one.....Lets show our appreciation for his astute dedication and fight the battle together. I am so grateful for his sincere commitment to reviving the American Dream.

I stand behind him. We need him!

Dean 2004

[Demobrat]

7. Dean and his campaigners are too smart for that.

They know when the election is.

[mandyky]

10. Dean won't even have peaked when he wins the nomination

Dean is not just a campaign, we're a movement. Not only will we nominate Dean, we'll do community works and help Dems get elected in the Congress. This movement won't even stop once Dean moves in at 1600 PA Ave. He and his supporters feed off of each other in ideas, creativity and fostering a sense of community.

[George_Bonanza]

11. It almost seems like that Dean supporters

Don't really support Dean because of the man. It seems what they really want is to put those who put him into prominence, into power. The MoveOn guys, the internet savvy campaigners... Dean has admitted he is pretty clueless about this.

[MercutioATC]

12. My support for the "man" is secondary to my support for his goals.

I do think Dean's charismatic, but I'm supporting him because of where he stands on the issues.

I see Dean as the most sure way to bring about change in this country. He won't be the sole source of that change, but I believe he'll be the catalyst.

I support Dean for 2 reasons:

1) Because of how he, as a candidate, stands on the issues, and

2) my belief that he'll facilitate change from many sources.

[George_Bonanza]

20. Well, see, here's the thing

I can't see how Dean is going to change this country so much, compared to, say, Kerry. Dean passed civil unions. Great for him. But Kerry has been adamantly been a gay rights proponent since the 80's. I'm sure if he was governor of a liberal state, he would've passed it too. Dean opposed the IWR. However, he changed his position from saying that Iraq could be contained, to saying Iraq needed to be disarmed in just a few months. That stance aligns with Kerry's views very well, so not much difference there. As for Kerry's vote, I think it was clear that Bush was going to war, with the Republican control of the congress and all. So Kerry's vote, to himself, was a personal symbolic one. In short, given his strong stance on disarming Saddam Hussein and forcing him to be accountable for his actions, he decided to say that America would be willing to use force IF NECESSARY. He trusted the president (just like Dean said on Meet the Press) to at least exhaust diplomacy and at least come up with a peace plan, which Bush didn't, hence the very vocal criticisms by Kerry. As for repealing all of Bush's tax cuts, it seems like tax breaks for the middle class IS a good idea, so I'm with Kerry on this one. I don't know anything about the American tax system and how it affects them, given that I don't even live there. As for the Patriot Act, Dean said that after 9/11, there may be a need to compromise certain civil liberties in the name of national security. And liberals like Wellstone also voted for it, so there's a very good chance Dean would've voted for it too, in the post 9/11 hysteria and all. As for other important issues like the environment, Dean's good, but he's no John Kerry. And Dean seems to be too pro-Israel. I want Israel to exist, but not at the cost of the Middle East, Palestinians in particular.

So in short, I don't see all this hoopla about Dean taking back the nation. He'll "take back the nation" if that means putting in Democratic mode, but what's so special about that? So will Kerry if he wins, so will Clark, so will Gephardt. Dean's has run a very fun campaign, but those campaign people will lose their influence once Dean has to surround himself with real, experienced politicians. The MoveOn guys won't be in the White House. They'll move on. If you want a candidate who's proven he will relentless pursue change in the name of justice, why not John Kerry? This man exposed Iran-Contra, BCCI, made Richard Nixon's hated enemy list, stood up to Vietnam (where was Dean?), stood up for the environment since the 70's (when there was no Green party to suck up to), has vowed to filibuster any anti-Roe vs. Wade supreme court justice appointee, and opposed Bush since 2000, everything from the environment to Afghanistan.

John Kerry and Dean are pretty similar. Both are NE liberal types, both are in their fifties, and both were born into prominent families. But Kerry is more liberal, more experienced, more battle-hardened, and is more fit to counter any Republican smear campaign.

[helleborient]

26. Then fire up the campaign!!

A lot of us are watching and listening....and according to Kerry supporters, waiting...just wait!

[molly]

30. BRAVO!!! it's all here in a nutshell

[MercutioATC]

32. I see Dean as a much bigger change than Kerry.

Look, I know it's old hat and Kerry supporters don't feel the same way but I DO see a "yea" vote for the Patriot Act and a "yea" vote for the IWR as status quo politics. I'm not denying that Kerry would be better than Bush and I'll happily support him if he's the nominee, but I do feel that Dean falls into a different category. I think Dean has the fortitude to make substantive changes.

[JeniB]

24. And will you do the same if Dean doesn't get the nomination?

It would be nice if all of the stirred up people would help whatever Dem gets the nomination, but I fear you guys won't bother. I agree that this is a movement. I don't think it needs Dean. He needs it. It's nice that there are more new people who were not involved before, but it will be for naught you guys don't stick around if he doesn't get the nod.

[molly]

31. Will you keeping working even if he doesn't win the

nomination?

[polpilot]

34. Now that's commitment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dean '04

[PROGRESSIVE1]

13. Dean has the momentum behind him!!!!

I do not believe that he "peaked" to soon!

[LuminousX]

14. Too Liberal, Too Conservative, Can't Raise Money,

Peaking Too Soon


People are eager to attribute any possible negative to the Dean campaign. How about just letting it be what it is. If support dies, it will die, if it increases, it will increase.

[renie408]

23. Exactly...

what I was wondering when I asked. If the 'peaking too soon' is more to discredit his campaign or if it is a 'real' thing.

[Thomas Jefferson]

15. Mark Shields wrote an article about how dark horses usually win

He noted that frontrunners the year before the election have only won the nomination twice in 44 years. When I speak with people, the results are the opposite of the polls. Dean seems more popular with the kind of people that the pollsters like to pick but not with the average person on the street. This upcoming election will be anything but ordinary.

[LuminousX]

16. "pollsters like to pick "

qualified polls require a true random sample, no 'picking' of who is being polled.

I'm not saying that this doesn't happen on occassion, but all the top level polls are pretty rigorous regarding their methodology. It is a social science that in general does work.

[Thomas Jefferson]

17. That's why Bush won the popular vote. Wait the polls were wrong

I guess the pollsters should have picked a different random sample.

[w4rma]

35. Bush *lost* the popular vote

Zogby was the one pollster that was correct on this, but to be fair, nearly all the polls had the race as being within the margin of error.

[killbotfactory]

18. Dean's all peak and no valley

You can't win unless you're declining in the polls right now! So sayeth the CW which has been totally wrong up until now.

[tedoll78]

19. Here's something that many are not considering.

Dean announced his candidacy when not many other candidates were doing so in that time frame. He thus got a ton of media attention for it, and a nice bump.

Kerry, Edwards, Graham, Lieberman, maybe Clark, etc will all be announcing soon, and thus will all be competing for media exposure of their respective announcements.. all under the shadow of the California recall.

My theory? Because of the increased competativeness for media attention, the bumps that other candidates will receive will be less pronounced as Dean's own.

And I'm not even going to touch the fundraising aspect..

[Kanola]

21. According to the media

Dean's fifteen minutes should have been up. He is unprecendented and therefore unpredicatable about how his grassroots campaign is kicking butt big time. Dean all the way to the top!

[Rose Siding]

22. My favorite case of the "peaking" pronouncement-

Margaret Carlson on Inside Politics, June 9, 2003:

"I'm not sure Howard Dean, at this point, is someone we want in our living rooms every night. I think his star is fading."

http://www5.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/06/09/judy.page.carlson/

Then a couple of weeks later:

"Then Dean's forces burst from their blogs (weblogs are the jungle drums of the Internet age) and made themselves heard in the old-fashioned language the political establishment understands: money. They deluged his campaign with $7.6 million in the second quarter (ended June 30), which was $1.7 million more than presumed front runner John Kerry, $2.5 million more than poll-topping Joe Lieberman, $3.1 million more than glamorous newcomer John Edwards, $3.8 million more than seasoned Dick Gephardt....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A17731-2003Aug4¬Found=true

[helleborient]

25. Iowa camps for out of state workers and pro-labor push for September

The Dean campaign looks to be pushing all out through September with goals to pass Clinton's record for fundraising in the 3rd quarter before an election year and to have out of state workers reaching Iowa voters.

Doesn't sound like a campaign on the decline.

Also...addressing the "where will we be" if Dean loses the nomination...most of the people at the meetups I've been to and campaign appearances are most adamant in their desire to get rid of Bush. Dean is seen as the most pragmatic option.

I'm a lifer for the Democrats...so I won't go away if he loses the nomination.

I do think a number of his supporters aren't so much tied directly to him as a person...as they are to the movement...the idea of grassroots power.

[Oreegone]

27. DEAN SUPPORTER

I wouldn't listen to this BS about how all his "followers" are a bunch of confused geeks who just like the internet idea....What Crap....

Out of large groups of supporters showing up for meetings they are a balanced cross section of society from 18-90 rich to poor, liberal to conservative. These people have not even STARTED to raise money, wait till they do. Everybody and their brother wants to volunteer and they are doing it.

"You ain't seen nothin' yet, oh baby....you ain't seen nothin' yet".

GO DEAN.....THE DOCTOR WILL BE IN....:bounce:

[kwolf68]

28. Yes...he is peaking too soon

There is a major debate about just what Dean believes in...Since no one really knows what this guy would do as President so many will just project whatever image of the "perfect candidate" they have ONTO Dean.

In the end, its a shell game. Dean is just some guy who no one knows about, he hasn't had his mug all over Senate hearings in the past and the perception (this is all it is) is he is fresh, new andinnovative when in reality he is a centrist Democrat who will do very little to showcase what makes Democrats different than Republicans.

It's one thing to critique the House Monkey but to actually have to make the decisions is an entirely different story. Dean's silly stand on guns and death penalty should show anyone genuinely seeking the truth that Dean is 100% politician from the word go.

Dean actually goverened as a MODERATE in a very Liberal state...Would he have been fascist in Georgia or Mississippi? Who the hell knows, but a Dean candidacy would be a major disapointment for me.

I hope he is exposed as the fraud he is, his fan club withers away and finds other people to get behind and we nominate a solid progressive -- at least on some issues.

I trust this will happen. Only Lierberman is worse than Dean in my view.

[ProfessorPlum]

29. Um, your ignorance is showing

I think the only person "projecting" here is you. Many of the rest of us know a great deal about his positions and his record.

[Rose Siding]

33. Your....er....logic escapes me

"Dean actually goverened as a MODERATE in a very Liberal state...Would he have been fascist in Georgia or Mississippi?"

Brilliant :eyes:

And someone better hurry and explain to state governors that they don't "actually have to make decisions"

[w4rma]

36. Massive information dump on Gov. Howard Dean

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=43435&mesg_id=43435&page=