Dean, Kerry showdown looms

[Nicholas_J]

Leading Democrats vie for Granite State

By Glen Johnson, Globe Staff, 7/13/2003

ONCORD, N. H. -- Howard Dean stood on a block of New Hampshire granite last week and delivered the kind of campaign speech that made Stephen Reed happy he was supporting the Democratic presidential contender.


The candidate spoke with a passion that stirred the 45-year-old home builder, that took aim at President Bush without hesitation, and that defended positions such as his decision while Vermont governor to sign a bill legalizing civil unions among gays and lesbians. Reed spoke of his support for Dean and added, ''I'll do what I can, and when he drops out . . .''

The Concord resident thinks it is inevitable that Dean's candidacy will fizzle, at which point he will shift his support to Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.

With the nation's leadoff primary a litttle more than six months away, Kerry and Dean have emerged as the leading choices among likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, with the two New Englanders consistently outpolling the seven other candidates for the party's 2004 presidential nomination.

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/194/nation/Dean_Kerry_showdown_looms+.shtml

[burr]

1. In 1992 nobody followed Iowa because it was Harkin's home state.

It was N.H. that put Clinton on the road to being the frontrunner. In 1988 it was N.H. that sparked the campaign of Dukakis and ended the potential of the Gephardt campaign. In 1976 it was Iowa that gave Carter the needed victory to make him the frontrunner.

Because Dean and Kerry both come from neighboring states, it seems clear that the initial battle for frontrunner status will be won in Iowa. The top two contenders I believe will be the contenders for the rest of the primaries, whoever comes in third will be among the first candidates to drop out. So I do not believe you can stake the fate of Kerry and Dean solely on what happens in N.H., mainly because the media will playdown the impact that primary has on the nomination, just as they did for Iowa won by Harkin in 1992.

[polpilot]

3. Iowa will be the initial battle but it won't be decided for 60-90 days

after Iowa... in a slugfest without precedent.

Dean '04...Terminator IV

[UnapologeticLiberal]

6. Ironically, Clinton lost NH in 1992

But it was spun as a victory because he got within a few points of Tsongas, who was from Massachusetts, since it was considered Tsongas' to lose.

I think the same is the case with Kerry and Dean - Dean may have risen in stature but Kerry is still the one expected to win NH. If Dean comes within 5 points he might be okay and it might even be spun as a victory. It is not as clear cut since they are both from neighboring states, but 43% of New Hampshire's Democratic primary voters live near the Massachusetts border, as opposed to only 7% who live on the Vermont border. A sizeable chunk of New Hampshire gets its media feeds from Boston, whereas Vermont media does not filter in the same way. And Kerry is the establishment candidate, the one who was expected to win. So I still think it is his to lose.

The thing is, I think if Kerry wins NH by more than 5 points, then Dean will not be able to rebound, and Kerry will then have an advantage in that he is more likely than Dean to be able to quickly reorganize and win the following Tuesday's primaries. It is doubtful, though, that either of them would win any primaries besides Delaware and possibly New Mexico, and DailyKos says neither would need to. That analysis, which I am a bit skeptical about, envisions the primary season being a two-round elimination process, with Dean and Kerry competing in Iowa and New Hampshire for the liberal vote (Gephardt will probably win Iowa but since he is expected to, the main race is for second and third). Then, according to DailyKos, the following Tuesday, which has SC, DE, NM, OK, and AZ, will be the first round between Gephardt, Edwards, Lieberman and Graham. Then the blog envisions the winner of that day going up against Kerry or Dean in the March 2 sweepstakes, at which point the primary season stops being an expectations game and becomes a genuine contest for delegates, 1/4 of whom are up for grabs that day.

[DrFunkenstein]

8. Dean Climbed Too Early

It's now perceived as a race with no frontrunner, now that Dean made waves with his 2nd quarter. Anyone but Dean and Kerry would be an upset. I'd be upset, at least.

[Nicholas_J]

17. Thats the general buzz

AMong political consultants...

Dean is peaking right now, and will begin to fall off. Because Dean gained the majority of his support months before anyone else had decided to run.

The majority of Americans, baby boomers, generally will not vote on the fire in the belly type of candidate. They have generally lost the bafflled by bullshit type of mentality, and do not trust quick onliners like Dean offers, for the most part. They will vote for the candidate who looks like they have the best chance of beating Bush.
ANds in the polls, that just is not Dean.

[DrFunkenstein]

2. So who do you think will win?

Just kiddin' Nick...

[Nicholas_J]

4. I know who it will not be.

There is a game plan for dealing with the doctor...

[burr]

5. Is it pin the tail on the ass...

or how about Russian roulette?

A game plan can only go so far.

[Nicholas_J]

7. Heh-Heh -Heh

I already know what support Dean will NOT BE GETTING

[MercutioATC]

9. Every vote makes a difference...

...thankfully (in some cases) we all get just one...

[burr]

10. That depends on what state you live in.

You get three or more if you live in Wyoming or Alaska, only one if you live in California. Maybe around two if you live in Texas. But that is only if you are voting with the majority in your state for President.

In 2000 my vote for Al Gore didn't count, because all of my state's electoral votes went to shrub. Primary delegates often get the winner takes all treatment as well!

[MercutioATC]

11. Awww, you understood the gist of what I was saying...

...agreed, though. Why not get rid of the electoral college and just go with popular vote?

[burr]

12. Great question...but I think you've already answered it.

Every vote makes a difference...thankfully (in some cases) we all get just one.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

27. Or we don't vote at all, sadly.

John F. Kerry-MA

Key Votes

Name of Legislation voted
Passed Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2004 07/17/2003 NV
Rejected Motion to Table Foreign Health Center Family Planning Assistance 07/09/2003 NV
Rejected Cloture Motion, Patients First Act of 2003 07/09/2003 NV
Passed Prescription Drug and Medicare Improvement Act of 2003 06/26/2003 NV
Agreed To Drug Reimportation amendment 06/20/2003 NV
Agreed To Generic Drug Availability amendment 06/19/2003 NV
Passed Flight 100--Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act 06/12/2003 NV
Rejected Striking Nuclear Power Plant Provisions; Energy Policy Act 06/10/2003 Y
Agreed To Child Tax Credit Amendment; Tax Relief, Simplification, and Equity Act of 2003 06/05/2003 Y
Rejected Base Closure Amendment; National Defense Authorization Act 06/04/2003 NV
Agreed To Jobs and Growth Reconciliation Tax Act of 2003 05/23/2003 N
Passed National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2004 05/22/2003 NV
Agreed To Jobs and Growth Reconciliation Tax Act 05/15/2003 N
Passed Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act 05/08/2003 NV
Rejected Cloture Motion; Nomination of Priscilla Owen, U.S. Circuit Judge for the Fifth Circuit 05/01/2003 N
Passed Congressional Budget for FY 2004 04/11/2003 N
Agreed To Child Abduction Prevention Act 04/10/2003 NV
Passed Wartime Supplemental Appropriations 04/03/2003 NV
Passed FY2004 Congressional Budget Resolution 03/26/2003 N
Rejected To reduce tax cut to $350 billion; FY2004 Congressional Budget Resolution 03/21/2003 Y


http://mygov.governmentguide.com/mygov/bio/keyvotes/?id=298

[DrFunkenstein]

29. How About Public Citizen On Kerry's Votes

Except for Fast Track, Kerry's record is spotless.

http://action.citizen.org/pc/officials/congress/?lvl=C&only_votes=1&azip=02101

Including the Kerry amendment to NAFTA:

This vote was to table (kill) the amendment (Amdt. 3430) sponsored by Sen. John Kerry to repair the flawed investor protection model of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The amendment was a modest reform that guaranteed much-needed changes in the NAFTA Chapter 11 investment model in future trade agreements.

Under the model, foreign investors may file a claim in secret NAFTA tribunals to seek compensation when government public interest regulations in any way diminish the value of their investment. In doing so, the amendment would have instructed U.S. trade negotiators to ensure that future investor provisions do not grant foreign investors rights beyond what the U.S. Constitution provides.

http://action.citizen.org/pc/issues/votes/?votenum=121&chamber=S&congress=1072

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. Still see 3 NV's there.

When tough votes are avoided, keeping your record spotless is easy.

[Nicholas_J]

13. Dean will not get one nod of support from those candidates who may

drop out. All support will go to back other DLC candidates. Or no one will drop out to prevent Dean from getting the 37 percent needed to get the nomination. There are not enough undecided voters left for Dean to get that level of support even if he gets the support of EVERY undecided voter. At that point the DLC decides on the candidate.
I do not think it will be Dean.

[DrFunkenstein]

16. I Have A Feeling He Will Be Around For Awhile

If he loses big time in N.H. then he may drop out, but I think he would run even a low-key campaign if the big funds aren't there. Which is not to say verbally low-key, naturally.

I just can't see him giving up, even in the face of an inevitability. I see him more as a Nader-type, hoping to "energize" the young folk.

[SoulLight]

18. it may not have occured to you...

But candidates don't CHOOSE where there support goes. Liebermans people may not go for Dean, but can you honestly say none of Gpehardts supporters will? where do you think sharptons supporters will go? It may work your way, but for the most part, people don't just listen to their candidates after they drop out, they choose a new one on their own.

[Nicholas_J]

20. Statistically

candidates throw their suport to the candidate their candidate has decided to throw their support towards, especially if they start actively campaigning for that candidate, especially with the thought that if their cnadidate will not win, they may be offered a place in the cabinet or even the VP slot. Being from Florida, and knowing Bob Graham fairly well. His ambition is not the presidency, but the Vice Presidency. Florida is in Grahams pocket from the Democratic side,and if he thows his weight to another candidate, 95 percent of the states dems WILL support that candidate. I have seen this happen in Every presidential campiagn since 1975. Whoever Graham decided to support for the Dem run, the Dems backed almost exclusively. In North Carolina, Edwards is picking up speed again, and if he does drop out, at lease half of the Democrats will support whoever Edwards nods at. Just the way it is. If they do not get all of their supporters to support their choice, They always get most of their supporters to back the new choice.

[newsguyatl]

21. wow nicholas

sounds like you're scared shitless of dean... that, or either you're obsessed with him...

i admit, he DOES have that effect, eh?

[Nicholas_J]

22. Not at all even Dean supporter who have analyzed the situation

Admit that the DLC plan will be either to aske EVERY candidate to stay in the race in order to kep Dean from even having a chance at gaining a majority. Or they have decided that NO candidate running will support Dean if they drop out. That is a fact. After the McGovern Campaign, they have decided that they will simply never support a candidate who tries to get the nomination of the Democratic Party by attacking its leadership. RHis is what has caused the weakening of the Democratic Party that Dean supporters decry. And Dean is doing it again. Such actions as Dean has taken harm the party, rather than aid it against conservatives:


First, If Dean is able to capture the undecided voters, he's going to start reaching a critical mass by the end of the 3rd Q, will win Iowa (knocking out Gephardt) and New Hampshire (knocking out Kerry) going away, and will win 2-3 states on Feb 3rd, then the caucuses shortly thereafter. The media annoints Dean, abandons everyone else but one of the moderates that's hanging around. Dean continues to win, and the contest is over by March 2nd. This is the slingshot.

Second, some of the other candidates win more of the early primaries. Though Dean is ahead, the DLC backs the other candidates to stay in the race to oppose Dean. Bean-counters on the internet bypass the media's annointment process, and turn to the very close delegate count as the measure of the candidates success. Given that the primaries show multiple winners throughout the season, with 4-6 candidates and plurality wins, we've got a long primary season, and a brokered convention. This is the buckshot.


http://www.mydd.com/archives/000675.html

Regardless of primaries, its delegates who do the nominating, and already 37 percent of the delgates are comitted to keeping Dean from the nomination.

The indications in the linl above means that by September Dean must pass Kerry in New Hampshire, and Gephardt in Iowa in order to win the either of those primaries. Kerry is FAR ahead in New Hampshire, and it does not look likely that he can take Gephardt in Iowa, except in the one planned parenthood poll and even there he is not ahead of Gephardt. This Means Dean has less than 2 months to become the frontrunner, To become the frontrunner beyond the statistical mean for the polls. It is not going to hapen and the party machine itself is dedicated to keeping it from happening.

No I am not afraid of Dean, just active in preventing his brand of conservatism from infecting the Democratic party.

Dean had little or no support from Democtaric politicians in Vermont. He was considerred to be "Republican-Lite" by a large portion of the DEmocratic Party. Under Deans leadership, the Democratic Party lost large numbers of its membership to the progressive party.

I may be wrong. Perhaps America is destined to become a fortress of conservatism, under either Bush or Dean.

Deans policies of cutting programs to the poor, disabled, and elderely in order to avoid taxing the rich, differs very little from the neo-conservative model for America.
So of course, I will do all I can to prevent such a political opportunist from becoming president from the Democratic Party.

[DrFunkenstein]

23. That Thought Had Occured To Me

Nicholas_J, I mean this as the friendliest of advice, but sometimes I think you would be spend your energy building up Kerry instead of tearing down Dean. Especially when you say that Dean is the most conservative of the candidates - perhaps under a certain lens this may be true, it is unlikely that anyone will ever believe you. You are obviously very talented and industrious, but I do sometimes wish you applied yourself in a more positive fashion.

Dean may not be the best choice, but he is hardly the anti-Christ. And Kerry has so much going for him that few people here know about, it would be a shame for you to misplace your talents. I'm trying my best not to sound like I'm lecturing, but the more I write the more it sounds that way, so I'll just let you think about it.

[blm]

24. Classic defense mechanism, is all, Doc.

N J started out just as anyone else, posting positive statements. He was attacked mercilessly by some former DU posters who have since been booted for their consistent rudeness. He really did try to remain civil...sometimes the constant claims that Kerry is just like Bush do get to you. I know they did with me.

Heh...even I started out with Dean on my short list. But, I see his namecalling off the other candidates as "Bushlite" as assinine a statement as Nader's saying there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between Gore and Bush. It was such an incredibly self-serving lie that I have yet to forgive him. If he became the nominee I will, for the good of the party, but, that's something Dean should have considered as well when he made that bullshit comment and encouraged his supporters to parrot that lie.

[DrFunkenstein]

25. I Understand The Psychology, Not The Strategy

I can totally understand wanting to strike back at cheap attacks, but I have to wonder what will be accomplished by pursuing Dean so relentlessly. I can't imagine any Dean fans changing their minds over the content of N_J's posts when the method seems, at times, somewhat unreasonable.

Paraphrasing Rosie Perez in White Men Can't Jump, "Sometimes you can win and still lose." A military victory means little if it turns the hearts and minds away from you. Just ask Shrub.

I would rather have Dean's people think of Kerry's people as a decent bunch, so that their enthusiasm is not squandered once Dean inevitably drops out (oops, I mean IF he drops out). I think that Dean fans are getting a reputation, perhaps unfairly, as a fairly rabid lot. Which is a shame. I would rather build bridges than burn them.

<>

[RevolutionStartsNow]

26. Love that photo

Dr. Funk, I read a lot of things on this board and I don't think of Kerry's fans as rabid or unreasonable, any more than I think people should categorize Dean fans as rabid or unreasonable because there are a few misguided people (if there are more Dean fans like this, and there may be, it's only because the Dean fans represent an overall larger percentage of posters here).

As for N_J, I don't think of him as a Kerry fan, despite the avatar. He is anti-Dean all the time, outrageously and irrationally so, and therefore I don't lump him in with the other Kerry supporters on here.

I've read a lot of things on here about Kerry that have caused me to peg him as my #2 choice. I also realize that we are all in this together.

Dean drop out? Heh. :)

[polpilot]

31. GREAT PHOTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dean '04

[Nicholas_J]

34. Thanks BLM

I have stated this frequently.

Yesterday was my birthday, and I suggested a general amnesty for the day, between two of those who attack everyone who posts things that are not worshipful of Dean and of course, they did not have the dignity to behave as suggested. Most of Deans supporters here do not have the civility or even courtesy to behave themselves under such suggestions, so why should I?

[Nicholas_J]

32. I do not need to build up Kerry

His own record will do that.

But Deans attack of other candidates, and Deans supporters attack of other candidate requires response. Dean has lied, misrepresented, and attacked other candidates without any justification. His type of political campaigning is slimy and represents EVERYTHING about politics that it took and investigation to get Dick Nixon to resign over.

HE is really a sleeze bag, and deserves as much attack as he foist upon other candidates.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

33. ohmigosh

talk about proving Dr. Funk's point...

Dean is a sleeze bag (sic)...

[MercutioATC]

35. Amen, Amerikav60. Some people just can NOT step back

and look at things. Nick does have admirable researching skills, but I feel that the value is tainted by his unrelenting attacks on Dean. Let him post in suport of Kerry...THAT will gain respect. THAT will make a positive difference. As long as he continues on his present course, he's lost all credibility with me.

[He loved Big Brother]

14. Yawn.

Blah blah blah.

[w4rma]

15. another quote from the same article...

Continuing a trend in his campaign, Dean not only denounced Bush, but also some of his fellow Democrats for their votes in support of the administration over war with Iraq, tax cuts, and the ''No Child Left Behind'' education law.

''This bill was put together by people who knew nothing about education,'' Dean said. ''We can do better than that, and yet all of our guys voted for it.''

Liz MacBride, a 44-year-old teacher from Contoocook, said she arrived at the party interested in Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman, but left leaning toward Dean -- especially because of the grass-roots support he has generated over the Internet.

''I feel like he's got a grass-roots thing going on that I'm pretty impressed with,'' she said. ''I think that's a quality that might make him electable.''

[ModerateMiddle]

19. another of Dean's "misstatements"

''This bill was put together by people who knew nothing about education,'' Dean said. ''We can do better than that, and yet all of our guys voted for it.''

Just like Dean's accusations that all of our guys voted in favor of Bush's tax cuts. Dean is running on the anger that lots of folks have about how hard it is to get anything done in government when there is a huge ideological split. But is he making things better? Are his words intended to heal this nation of that split?

It's not easy to put through your very own plan when you need support from both parties and from very diverse areas of the country. Compromise is absolutely essential.

Dr. Dean seemed to understand that when he spoke with Mr. Russert on MTP last month and was waffling himself on whether he'd support the prescription drug legislation. I am not sure the man ever actually answered the question.

He accuses folks of waffling when they have something to say that's bigger than yes or no. And yet he can't answer questions with only those words either.

I am not pleased with the good Doctor.

[Duder]

28. Dean's right...

...about the education bill. He said some of his fellow Democrats voted for the Bush tax cuts. Since the prescription drug bill wasn't complete when Russert asked about it, it's kind of difficult to say whether something is good or bad when you haven't seen the final product.

I'm pleased with the doctor. :)