Gephardt's "Electoral Strategy"-clueless?

[goobergunch]

I was browsing Gephardt's website and I came across the following:

A Winning Electoral Strategy

with an attached map. Although the basic argument that the Gephardt people make is not baseless, some of their predictions made me wonder...

Arizona: likely to vote to re-elect *
Florida: likely to vote to re-elect *
Vermont: likely to vote to re-elect *
New Hampshire: likely to vote for a Democrat
New Mexico: likely to vote for a Democrat
South Carolina: key "battleground" state

:wtf:

[TSIAS]

1. I don't know about this

Arizona looks like a possible Dem gain in 2004. I'd say Vermont is more likely to go Democratic than New Hampshire.

I really don't see us winning SC in '04. We lost it by close to 16 percent in 2000. I'd focus on Southern states where we could be competitive, such as Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

[goobergunch]

2. Exactly my thoughts

Those are the Gephardt predictions. I'm going to update my prediction on my website later today.

[goobergunch]

4. updated (n/t)

[Ediacara]

7. I like your site

Although not as optomistic as I like LOL.

One minor thing I would change is Montana. I say move it from Safe GOP to Leans GOP. The governor's race is going to bring a heavy Dem challenge and depending on the presidential nominee, Montana could move into the toss-up column.

[goobergunch]

8. Thanks

After review, I now consider Montana Leans GOP/possible Safe GOP.

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?tl=1&display=rednews/2003/05/25/build/local/35-poll1.inc gives 52% for *'s generic re-elect in May. I still think it's a long shot, but stranger things have happened...

[Ediacara]

9. Clinton won here in 1992, Dole squeeked by in 1996

and ok, Gore lost in a landslide in 2000...... BUT the 2000 governor's Senate and House race all had Republican squeeker wins with 51-49 margins.

I think that a Dean, Clark, and Graham candidacy could win Montana for the Democrats. Kerry, although I think he would win the general, would probably lose Montana.

Montana is poised to elect a Dem governor, just like Wyoming did last year.

You know how Dems are going to win in the Rocky Mountains? GUNS AND JOBS. Freudenthal knew this, Schweitzer knows this, and I think that Dean, Clark, and Graham can further play this theme and win at least some Rockies states (Montana, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico) for the dems.

The mod/conservatives are different out west, they aren't religious nut-jobs, but libertarian gun owners. If you can calm the gun-taking fears AND articulate an economic plan that will bring REAL capital into the states and REALLY create more and better jobs, then we will win.

[ISUGRADIA]

3. Was the person who did this map smoking crack?

Vermont is a liberal state and is far less likely to go Republican than NH. NH is a tossup state if anything. I wonder if they got these two switched when putting the map together.

And I wonder if putting South Carolina into the swing category is a bone to the Dem Party there and the primary voters of early 2004. Arizona is much more likely to be a battleground state than SC. If SC becomes a "battleground state" then Bush is assured of a hell of a lot less than 203 leaning electoral votes.

Thanks to goobergunch for posting this link. It was most illuminating.

[Ediacara]

6. no joke

If South Carolina is a "key battleground" state, then Bush is going to go the way of Taft and win just Utah and Vermont (well not today's Vermont :-) ).

[loyalsister]

5. Not admitting that MO is Republican leaning?

He must be hoping people who know Missouri politics don't look at this. Our House went Republican last election to give them both leg branches for the first time since like 1948, I think.
He is just totally ignoring the reality of his home state or something. He will have trouble here. Guns will be an issue for him. They *finally* got the right to carry with the help of some Democrats who know their contributors and districts. You can bet the NRA will drive home the gun regulation history that Gep is proud of.
He would have big trouble winning his home state.

[Loyal]

10. A couple of things are weird on that:

I don't think Bush is going to win Vermont, first of all. I don't understand why they put that state as Bush leaning. Secondly, I don't think that we can win South Carolina. I do think that we have a chance at Kentucky, Tennessee, and Missouri with the right candidate. So that map is not too ridiculous, imo, Goobergunch. If you look at the states Clinton won in 1992, he won a lot of those southern and midwestern states too.