The Goobergunch Political Report is OUT! Ask me anything.

[goobergunch]

The Goobergunch Political Report
Volume 3
Number 1
http://www.freewebs.com/goobergunch/gpr0301.html

(This is a slightly different link than in my sig...the sig line link stays current, but this link will be archived with today's predictions)

FEATURING...
Presidential Race: Dem Nominee 199, Bush/Cheney 253
Democratic Nomination Delegate Count
Senate: Democrats 45, Republicans 51
and my Recall Prediction!

Also, I will be hosting LIVE election-night coverage of the recall tomorrow night between 11 PM and midnight EDT at the link in my sig.

[AWD]

1. Goober who???

Well, you said to ask you ANYTHING.

[AWD]

2. I have some Ohio info for you

...it's a bit lengthy, so I'll get into it later.

But for the low-down, I can tell you that you should no longer hold the thought that Ohio is a Repub state. There's a battle plan, and it's pretty slick. More later.

[goobergunch]

3. Sounds good!

Presidentially, I've got Ohio as TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP, but a lot of that is based on the Ohio Poll which came out the other day.

If we've got a good game plan, I think Ohio is winnable.

[javadu]

4. Thanks for the Report

I tried to send you a private email, but I don't yet have enough posts. Could you add a column to the superdelegates sections for newbies like myself? I would like to know how many superdelegates are still uncommitted. I'm a newbie, so it may be a dumb question, but I think that would help me to evaluate how the candidates are doing.

[goobergunch]

5. I'd personally love to do this

Unfortunately, I don't know myself how many superdelegates there are total...:shrug:

I do know that there are a total of 4334 convention delegates, however...of which 4223 are uncommitted.

If somebody has that information, I'd be happy to add it.

[sandnsea]

6. OR a toss up?

How did you come to that conclusion?

[goobergunch]

7. The following facts:

2000
Gore 46.96%, * 46.52%
2002
Kulongoski 49.0%, Mannix 46.2%

One Dem, one Repuke Senator

Although OR is probably slightly more Democratic than Repuke, it's definitely in play for 2004.

[sandnsea]

13. Factor in ONE Rep Congressman

The rest Democrats. And the fact that the old-guard Republicans are currently becoming more vocal about these new Mannix type Republicans. Oregon definitely leans Democratic and I would say is as safe, Democratically, as almost any other state in 2004.

[Padraig18]

8. Just curious

How do you figure IL as 'leans dem'? The GOP was beaten like a red-headed stepchild here last Nov., and the state has gone DEM. in a big way in '92, '96 and '00. * couldn't get elected dogcatcher in IL, atm.

What gives?

[goobergunch]

10. /me forgot to update

I originally drew the map back in April, and have been revising them since then. At the time, CA and IL were both "Leans DEM". I've fixed IL. Thanks!

[Padraig18]

12. Hehe!

Any time! I helped smack those evil GOP b*astards around, so I noticed right off. :bounce:

On edit: IL feels America's pain, which should not cause the GOP to sleep easily. :thumbsup:

[indigo32]

9. wow Gephardt has 36?

interesting.

[goobergunch]

11. All from the House (n/t)

[dkamin]

14. i don't understand

you have bush/cheney with 253 electoral votes, but the states you have in red don't come anywhere close to 253.

[goobergunch]

15. States that are TOSS-UP/possible Leans GOP are counted in the GOP column

Although they are marked as toss-ups, I have (in my own BMP version), marked several TOSS-UPs as leaning slightly towards one party:

TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP:
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
Ohio
Tennessee

TOSS-UP/possible LEANS DEM:
Maine (at large) <--- which I just added now because I realized I was being a doofus
Michigan

[Frodo]

16. Hmmm... I'm not sure I want to trust the predictions of....

... somone who says "I realized I was being a doofus" :-)

Interesting site. I've currently got the Senate as 53-47 with the loss of ".33" (each) seats for FL (if Graham retires) and SD(if Thune runs for Senate). Could be 54-46. I see little chance at this point of regaining the Senate (an outside chance of returning to power-sharing/renewing the "one more Jeffords" stories).


Edit - I think you should modify the Gov. map to identify "currently favored to switch parties" states (perhaps with diagonal stripes?) It's too hard to remember who owns each state now.

[Frodo]

19. OK. What's your take on OK?

If it's either Largent or (worse for us) Watts, I think it's still pretty safe republican.

[goobergunch]

23. I'm not sure yet

It all depends on who runs. But this definitely makes OK at least LEANS GOP, if not a borderline TOSS-UP.

[gottaB]

17. Oregon leans Dem

There won't be much of a Green factor in 2004. Economic issues are huge. High unemployment is ruining any chance Bush might have had.

[whirlygigspin]

18. Prediction

Dean: 375
Bush: 163

I'm giving Georgia, Louisianna & Ohio to Dean.
:smoke:

[firestarter]

20. If the scandals continue to mount

and Iraq and the economy remain sour, we could be in for a repeat of the '74 elections in some ways, where the good guys picked up four Senate seats and about 50 House seats. The Republicans suffered everywhere because of the inept and corrupt Nixon administration. It's certainly not out of the question that the same could happen in '04. We're overdue for a big partisan switch anyway.

[mndemocrat_29]

21. Goobergunch-

What is your opinion of the Oklahoma race, now that Sen. Nickles is dropping out?

[Frodo]

22. Yeah!

OK. So this is a shameless bump hoping Goobergunch will see it.

:-)

[goobergunch]

24. Post #23

and thanks for the kick.