Results of the California Poll--breakdowns by gender/age/education

[CMT]

The Field Poll of California which indicated that Howard Dean has moved from fourth place in April to a first place tie of the state with John Kerry and Joe Lieberman has some interesting results when you break it down by sub-categories.

Overall Dean has 16% of the Democratic vote (up from 7% in April). Kerry has 15% down slightly from 16% in April. Lieberman has 14% which is down substantially from April when he had 22% of the statewide support. Dick Gephardt has 7% down from 12%. Dennis Kucinich has 3% up from 1% in April. Bob Graham has 3% which is up from 2%. Al Sharpton has 3% which is down from 4% and Carol Mosley Braun has 2% down from 4% in April. One-third of California democrats are undecided up from 29% in April.

Here are some sub-categories:

Liberals
Dean 26%
Kerry 17%
Lieberman 9%
Others 24%
Undecided 24%

Moderate/Conservative:
Dean 10%
Kerry 13%
Lieberman 16%
Others 21%
Undecided 40%


LA County:
Dean 19%
Kerry 11%
Lieberman 15%
Others 24%
Undecided 31%

SF/Bay Area:
Dean 16%
Kerry 21%
Lieberman 11%
Others 17%
Undecided 35%

Men:
Dean 21%
Kerry: 17%
Lieberman 12%
Others 22%
Undecided 28%
**In April Dean received only 8% of the male vote so his support among this group has nearly tripled. Kerry had 18% male support in April. Lieberman had 15% male support in April.

Female:
Dean 13%
Kerry 13%
Lieberman 15%
Others 21%
Undecided 38%
**In April Dean had 6% support among females. His support thus has more than doubled in this category. Kerry had 15% in April. Lieberman has seen a strong erosion of support among females going from 26% in April to 15% now.

18-49 years old:
Dean 14%
Kerry 9%
Lieberman 14%
Others 29%
Undecided 34%

50-older:
Dean 19%
Kerry 20%
Lieberman 13%
Others 14%
Undecided 34%

Race:
White/non-hispanic
Dean 18%
Kerry 19%
Lieberman 15%
Others 18%
Undecided 30%

All other:
Dean 9%
Kerry 8%
Lieberman 12%
Others 27%
Undecided 44%

Education:
Not a College Grad
Dean 9%
Kerry 10%
Lieberman 12%
Others 25%
Undecided 44%

College Graduate
Dean 23%
Kerry 21%
Lieberman 15%
Others 20%
Undecided 21%

Dean does best among men, liberals, those with a college education, people living in Los Angeles County.

Kerry does best among those in the Bay area and older voters and is virtually tied with Dean among College graduates.

Lieberman does best among female (!!) voters, moderate/conservative leaning voters, and among non-whites.

The groups most undecided: moderate/conservative voters (40%), women (38%), non-whites (44%) and those without a college education (44%)

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2077.pdf

[bahrbearian]

1. Deans holding strong

my vote is for Dennis though!

[CMT]

2. Dennis moved from 1% to 3% from April to July

which isn't bad. If he keeps gaining at that rate he could be one of the top candidates in the state.

[dsc]

3. Thanks for the stats

I am very suprised that Dean is not leading more in the Bay area. I had figured that would have been a very strong area for him. Other wise this looks pretty good for Dean. He is basically tied in minorities with Kerry which is very good.

[CMT]

6. yes I was struck by that too

I thought Dean would be leading in the Bay area given the "conventional wisdom" about him, but outside of the bay area in the rest of Northern California (according to Field) Dean is leading Kerry 14-8 and 8% for Lieberman.

I too was surprised that for all the talk about his lack of appeal among minorities that he is doing no worse than Kerry among minorities in a state where minorities are the majority.

[DoctorBombay]

4. Funny

...the original post contains this sentence:

Dean does best among men, liberals, those with a college education, people living in Los Angeles County.

I fit all four of those descriptions, and I'm a Dean supporter.

[Nicholas_J]

5. Interesting

Kerry does best with the baby boomers, the largest population group in the nation...

35 percent of democratic part voters (50 -64) The age group 65- 74 comprises another 25 percent.


Odd since Kerry is FAR more liberal than Dean...
When the media starts sorting out the facts and examining Deans record more closely, after Kerry begins hard campaigning after the summer recess of Congress, these numbers may start reversing themselves.

[CMT]

7. yes

I was hoping for more of a breakdown of age groups than Field provided. It is one thing to know that Kerry is ahead 20-19 against Dean among 50 + age group but I was hoping to see it more like 18-29, 30-49, 50-64 and 65-over rather than it just bunched into two categories.

[Nicholas_J]

8. Yes

This would provide more of an accurate breakdown, as most of Deans supporters fo fall in the 18- 29 range.

It will be interesting to see how Dean fairs when his decisions as governor are examined by the media. They scrutinized the hell out of Clinton in 1991-1992 and paid less attention to the other candidates, who were more well known, at least to the media.

[CMT]

10. well I disagree with you there

that most of his support is in the 18-29 year range. Among 50-over
he is in a deadheat with Kerry 20-19. And among 18-49 year olds Lieberman and Dean are tied 14-14 with Kerry at 9. It appears to me that while Dean has a following among voters under 50--he actually is doing better among voters 50 and over.

[dsc]

9. I find it interesting

that in a different thread on this poll you took great pains to point out that this was in reality a three way tie between Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman due to the MOE. A completely accurate point. But here you use and entirely different construction:

"Kerry does best with baby boomers, the largest population group in the nation."

He is leading 20 to 19 in that group. Just curious but isn't that inside the MOE too? Of course we both know it is.