Dean's Success May Hinge on Luring Blue-Collar Votes

[papau]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-upscale21oct21000421,1,1728086.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

NATION
Dean's Success May Hinge on Luring Blue-Collar Votes
Popularity with college graduates might not be enough to capture the nomination, experts say.

By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer


WASHINGTON — Can Howard Dean escape the Starbucks ghetto?

New polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the critical first two states in the Democratic presidential race, show the former Vermont governor dominating among voters with a college degree — the sort of people more likely to stop at Starbucks than a doughnut shop in the morning. But in both states he is showing much less strength among voters who did not graduate from college.<snip>

... almost all Democrats, including senior advisors in Dean's camp, agree that he will face long odds as a nominee against President Bush if he cannot make greater inroads among blue-collar and noncollege voters, especially men.<snip>

In Iowa, Dean led Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri among college-educated voters 36% to 15%, according to the survey, conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg. Among college-educated voters in New Hampshire, Dean crushed Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts 45% to 19%, the survey found.

Among voters without a college degree, the story was very different. In Iowa, among voters with a high school degree or less, Gephardt led Dean by 42% to 16%; in New Hampshire, those voters preferred Kerry over Dean 29% to 23%. Voters with some college, but not a degree, narrowly preferred Gephardt in Iowa and Dean in New Hampshire.<snip>

[Brucey]

1. I don't see blue collar lining up for Dean.

Some will like his straight talk, but most will see him as somewhat elitist. On the other hand, they have always liked someone who tells it like it is, so maybe...(big maybe!)

[papau]

2. Kerry/Edwards/Clark/Gep all have better Blue collar links - but

If Dean can start pushing crime, national defense, and lower cost of gov so as to have lower taxes, explaining that any tax paying National Health will be offset by the middle class fellow NOT having to pay for insurance, I think Dean can pick up the middle class blue collar.

But he has got to start SOON, and part of that start needs to be an explaining that repeal of all Bush tax cuts does not mean he will not "restructure" the tax code so as to lighten its burden on the middle class.

I've only met Dean in the long ago past when Gov Snelling died and he had just become gov. My impression was that he was a fellow that did not see the truth/wisdom of advice to take a path he had not previously decided to follow. Which is why I think it may be easier to get Kerry less stuffy/snobby, than it will be to get Dean on a path to more blue collar votes than his current path is generating.

[pruner]

3. are you a Vermonter?

n/t

[papau]

4. I was from 86 to 92

The kids got service acad nominations from Leahy and Jeffords, They went abroad on the usual left wing save the world through kid to kid meet-ups -- with my hosting the same from Russia, Estonia, with the backing of the lady Gov of VT at the time - and of course did campaign work in the Montpelier area.

GOP local activity was much larger than Dem at the time - and I was a watcher and occassional time and effort and a little money donator - I was not a "force" or even well known in the party. But Dean did drop by a breakfast that enabled me to hear/see/evaluate him.

It was and is God's country up there with wonderful folks and great environment and views.

[pruner]

5. cool

I've been to Vermont a few times to see Phish play, the last time about 4 years ago.

it's really beautiful up there and a nice drive from NYC (where I live). If I were a skiier I'd probably have been there more often.

[w4rma]

7. ABC News: Dean to get major Union endorsement

…
House of labor:

From ABC News' Marc Ambinder and Gayle Tzemach:

ABC News has learned that senior leaders of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT) have told Democratic campaign officials they plan to endorse former Vermont Governor Howard Dean next Monday morning in Iowa. It is the first major union endorsement for Dean.

The IUPAT claims more than 140,000 "painters, drywall finishers, wallpaper hangers, glass workers" and more among its national membership. Union Political Director and General Vice President Sean McGarvey says the "extremely difficult" decision to endorse marks the end of a nearly 12-month long process of evaluation and discussion.

Union leadership made the unanimous decision during a Monday conference call evaluating the results of a questionnaire sent to 600 IUPAT members late this summer. Third quarter FEC numbers and candidate meetings also played a part in the union's endorsement.

The IUPAT maintained throughout the process it would follow the AFL-CIO's lead in endorsing a presidential contender. When the AFL declined to endorse a candidate last month, the union decided to continue to watch the race unfold and endorse once member poll results and late-year candidate money reports became available.

McGarvey stressed the high regard the union has for all the candidates competing, adding that union leadership was "surprised, very surprised" by the questionnaire's results. "But the candidate (the rank and file) has urged us to support has apparently tapped into something none of the other candidates has been able to tap into," he said, promising the union would "jump in with both feet" to mobilize its "black and gold army" on its candidate's behalf.
…
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

CMT says:
…
This is Dean's first major Union endorsement, but there is a good chance he will get an even bigger one next month when Service employees (SEIU) make their endorsement.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=65734

[9119495]

9. Dean is doing well in Union Households in IA

Gephardt is getting many endorsements from unions but there are many union households in Iowa supporting Dean. Last poll I heard (and have no idea where to find it) said Dean was polling at 36% in Iowa union households--and union members are something like one third of all caucus goers. There is a tendancy for the rank-and-file to not always endorse the candidate their leadership tells them to. His message about bringing back the Clinton economy plays well here as does his stance on guns.

[dsc]

6. This could easily be flipped around

and would be just as silly. Different candidates are going to have different constituencies in the primary. That is hardly an earth shattering revelation. No matter whom we nominate they are going to get at least 40% of the vote (probably closer to 45% in our polarized country). No matter whom we nominate Bush will get arond the same number. The rest (10 to 20%) are up for grabs. I think any of Kerry, Gephardt, Dean, Edwards, and maybe Clark can win under the correct circumstances. Whoever wins will get support from all the constituencies.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

8. Dean blue collar support in my town -- tonight!

Tonight we were having an informal meeting to write letters to NH voters, at a local pub. We were a happy fun bunch, and I have to say we wrote a ton of letters! It was great.

We had just settled in when a guy walked up and asked if we had any stickers. He is part of the local plumbers union and said if we gave him 20 stickers he could get them on 20 cars easily.

Needless to say, he left our table with 20 stickers, 20 buttons and some flyers! We come prepared.

[polpilot]

10. I've always thought Dean would garner the blue collar vote and still do.

I believe the 'south' is gone but some think otherwise. There is a lot of dislike for Bush particularly with the older politically involved voter. I'm ALWAYS surprised at the animosity directed towards Bush by the elderly voter but doubt Dean should spend a cent trying to 'educate' southern voters in 12 months.

Activating the Nat'l Guard is the BIG question. If they're activated then the anti-Bush sentiment will rage as all sections and sectors of the country will be involved. I believe Bush & Co. are so far removed from reality that they don't understand this. IF they start deploying the guard then 'Removing Bush' may be translated to 'Bring Home My Son'. I believe this is the trail we're on. THIS WILL TURBOCHARGE THE DEAN ASCENT.

Dean '04

[AP]

11. The big union endorsement is the AFL-CIO's right? I think I read...

Gephardt and Edwards lead the pack for that one.

[9119495]

12. Actually Dean is in on that one too.

They held their endorsement as Dean was catching on fire. It was viewed by most as devastating for Gephardt. The rank and file were cheering Dean too much to just hand it to Gep.