Who (of the dems pack) won't survive the winter?

[alexwcovington]

Lieberman is the walking dead.

CMB and Sharpton know they don't have a chance at this point

Kucinich is fooling himself and his supporters. :( If he had a little more cash he coulda been a contenda.

So that leaves.... Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Clark? The latter is fooling himself if he thinks skipping Iowa's a good idea...



Ok, ok, I fixed Lieberman's name.
:P Now you try spelling Hyoo-nih-key

[jiacinto]

1. Yeah

CMB, Sharpton, Kuchinich, and Lieberman will be the first to go.

[pruner]

2. Lieberman is more like a SARS patient spreading germs wherever he goes

Day of the Spoiler

by Rick Perlstein
October 22 - 28, 2003

The listbot at meetup.com, the commercial site whose clever software facilitates face-to-face gatherings between Web surfers of like interest, sent me a forlorn little e-mail the other day. "Congratulations on a successful National Lieberman in 2004 Meetup last week! See photos from every city," it read, giving a link. Click lieberman2004.meetup.com/photos yourself, and you'll see the pathos: There ain't no photos.

That's not surprising. In Chicago, where I live, there wasn't any meetup. Not enough supporters RSVP'ed to trigger the software's automated threshold. Meetup.com, in fact, has registered only 332 Joseph Lieberman fans in the entire United States of America, four in Chicago. An undercover reporter from The Village Voice—uh, me—represents one quarter of the total.

It could be considered comic, this abyss at the Lieberman grassroots. It could be, that is, if Lieberman showed any signs of going away. Instead, he's been ramping up: launching a splashy new tax plan; publishing a dowloadable campaign book, Leading With Integrity: A Fresh Start for America, and an accompanying website; kicking off a campaign tour—all just this past week. And that's not funny. Because it's not too early to predict that if the Democrats lose the presidential election next November, Lieberman will be the one to blame. That will certainly be so if he ends up becoming the nominee—in which case the Democratic Party will be left without an activist base. ("I'll vote for Joe Lieberman absentee from whatever country I move to if he wins the nomination," as one friend of mine puts it.) Perversely, it might even be worse for the Democratic Party if he fails.

It works like this. He has already conceded Iowa, but let's suppose Lieberman doesn't do too poorly in the other early states, picking up some delegates here and there, perhaps even winning a primary, say one of the five on February 3, the week after New Hampshire, when his name recognition will help him because no one will have time to campaign in all these states. Thus emboldened, he campaigns harder—by intensifying his pattern of tearing down his opponents as dangerously liberal—and remains committed to staying in for the duration. Then, as his star fades, he'll have only one viable strategy left, a manic, all-or-nothing strategy: trying to convince Democrats that the front-runner must be dumped altogether, using the dark arts of opposition research, trying to dig up something purportedly embarrassing from the front-runner's past that the jubilant Republicans might even have missed if left to their own devices.

Lieberman still loses the nomination. But the successful nominee ends up, in a self- fulfilling prophecy, becoming just what the spoiler-candidate said he was: unelectable—as a man named George Bush effortlessly exploits the opposition research that a member of his own party has dug up. It has happened exactly this way before. Just ask Joe Lieberman's old friend Al Gore.

<snip>

http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0343/perlstein.php

[Rocinante]

3. I confine myself to the Lounge

but I believe it will be between Dean and Clark. You may banish me to the Lounge now.

[pruner]

4. I believe you're right

now off you go.

please save me a seat.

[alexwcovington]

5. Banish?

Whatever for?

I tend to stick around this forum since they put up the new rules for GD, but I've been thinking about posting a few to the Lounge...

[dsc]

6. My guesses

Gephardt will be gone if he losses Iowa. Currently I rate that as a 50/50 chance. If he wins Iowa but then can't win Illinois or Ohio he will be gone then (technically that would be before winter is over).

Lieberman is done. His campaign is shockingly poorly run and he has squanderd his one asset from 00. His persona was his best asset and that is gone. It is amazing to me that he didn't do better.

Kucinich will withdraw after Ohio if not sooner. He is beginning to alienate some in his district and he will be running out of money by that point.

Sharpton I was convinced he would stay the distance but now I don't think he will. He will fall out sometime after Super Tuesday.

One of Kerry, Dean, or Gephardt will be gone. Maybe even two. If Dean wins both Iowa and NH Kerry is done barring a huge victory in an unexpected place like South Carolina. If Dean splits NH and Iowa then the third place finisher in Illinois and Ohio (or 4th if favorite children candidates do well there) will be gone. Also California is early too. My best guess is that Dean will survive, Kerry will not and Gephardt won't either. Odds. Dean surviving 75%, Kerry being gone 50%, Gephardt being gone 75%.

CMB will drop out after Illinois virtually no matter what.

Clark is a real wild card. He will either go the distance or flame out spetacularly. I see no inbetween for him. Currently his campaign hasn't been impressive which helps Kerry and Gephardt most. If he gets his act together and doesn't flame out then this is likely to be a Dean Clark race. Especially if Dean wins both NH and Iowa.

[alexwcovington]

7. ah, the Gepper

:P figures I'd miss him. His entire campaign seems to have gone under the radar.


That's bad. Especially since the AFL-CIO held off on him...

[pruner]

8. I don't think there's any chance Dean will drop out

he's got paid staff and offices in more states than anyone else… and not just the early primary states.

his campaign has already stated that they have no intention of quitting before the last primary, and they've got the money to back that up.

[dsc]

9. all campaigns say that

and I think it is quite unlikly he will drop out. But if he can't win in the big states he will drop out. Dean seems well positioned though to win in those states. He is building organization in NY, OH, IL, MI and PA as well as others.

[alexwcovington]

10. Don't forget North Dakota

:P

[pruner]

11. I know all campaigns say that…

but their actions seem to back it up.

most of the other campaigns seem to be of the attitude 'we'll see how things pan out after X and then evaluate our situation and make a decision after what to do from there'

[displacedtexan]

13. not true. visit votesmart.com

they have the addresses of the campaign offices. dean has only a few.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. Nobody's dropping out till Feb. 4 at the earliest.

[alexwcovington]

14. Maybe

Right after South Carolina...maybe...