Questions for Political Scientist Types

[javadu]

Evertime I watch a debate, I am encouraged by how strong all 9 of our candidates are. I think this is a great group. (There are actually a couple I don't like, but I am trying very hard to not bash any of OUR candidates.)

On the other hand, I am concerned about having 9 candidates. Nationally, not one of our candidates gets above 17 points in polls. I am ready for a candidate (or only a few candidates) to begin to emerge. Because I am a newbie, I am asking the political scientist types on these message boards to alleviate some of my concerns. Here are some specific questions.

1. Will candidates fail to emerge until the caucuses and primaries begin? This seems like a simple question, but it also seems like it leads to a situation where you have a candidate winning a small plurality of the vote and make it difficult to build a united front in the general election.

2. Is anyone likely to drop out before the primaries begin? Who? and how will affect the field?

3. Is it possible to choose a nominee that no one really wants because the majority of the rest of the votes are divided over the alternatives?

[LuminousX]

1. A few answers

1. With a lot of candidates as strong as we have, yes, it will take a few primaries to sort out the strongest few. National polls are meaningless because of course the electorate will be fragmented among all the contenders.

2. The only candidate who may drop out early are those who are not polling well and who may want to avoid potential debt due to future election plans. Kucinich is the only one who falls into this category at this point in time, Graham is the other.

3. By the middle of the primaries, more and more candidates will be weeded out so the remaining candidates will get an increasingly large portion of the votes.

The system does work, even though it is a bit messy.

[Nazgul35]

2. An actual PhD poli-sci person here will try...

This is what we call the money primary....the three to four quarters before the first primary is called the money primary as those who are unable to raise enough cash will cause others to drop out....hence Sen. Graham...

This does not apply, however to ideologiacl candidates....look for them to hold on until after both Iowa and NH...

1) After Iowa, the focus will be on the top three candidates, who will get two weeks free advertisment as the media will focus completely on this three and who will finish in the top two....in NH, the top two finishers will be the focus and the media will begin to talk about a horse race.....look for many of the undecideds in the Feb. primary states to quickly coalese around one of these two candidates......more money will be drawn towards these two and pressure will begin for those candidates who have no chance to drop out....depending on who these candidates are, that will determine who will be alive going into Feb. Right now, Dean looks good to survive both primaries so the fight is around who will be the alternative to Dean....that's why so many were concerned when Clark decided to give Iowa a pass, because many thought he could get a third there, giving him the opportunity to finish second in NH and blank Dean in the South....

Another thing to consider is that the Primaries are coming much quicker than they have in the past, so the concern is that is anyone should get momentum going into Feb. the election could be over before those candidates who have decided to wait have a chance to get going....

2) I don't see anyone dropping out from the field, but after NH, some will and look to see who they choose to endorse, don't look for any of the candidates to endorse Dean, as they are likely to go with the #2 candidate coming out of NH....setting up a bloddy fight come Feb.

3) Every election, when we don't have an incumbent, there is talk of a brokered conevtion, but it never happens....look for the Party to rally round the eventual winner...with the DNC, DLC and Congressional Dems all rallying around our party's nominee as soon as it is clear who that will be....

The fact that there are nine means nothing right now, as soon as we narrow it down, the public will begin to focus and that generic Dem will become the eventual nominee, at least at first, than it depends on the nominee not screwing up....most likely by runnning a "me too" campaign....which would be disasterous...sorry Joe! As soon as that front runner emerges, look for Bush to come out guns a blazing....which is why everyone should look at my sig line below!!!!