Dean leads in new ABC/WP poll among Democrats

[Padraig18]

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 26-29, 2003. Registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?"


Howard Dean 17
Richard Gephardt 14
Wesley Clark 14
Joseph Lieberman 13
John Kerry 8
Al Sharpton 7
John Edwards 5
Carol Moseley Braun 3
Dennis Kucinich 2
None (vol.) 5
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1
No opinion 10


Seems like Rep. Gephart is busting out of the pack, and Sen. Kerry is dropping rather precipitously, now just 1 percentage-point ahead of Rev. Sharpton.

Comments?

:hi:

[LuminousX]

1. None tops Kucinich by 3%, Braun by 2%

Yikes.

I still don't understand how Lieberman is still in this race. Kerry's lackluster performance is frightening seeing he was once the Leader-of-the-pack.

All of that being said, a national poll is meaningless in primary season.

[Padraig18]

2. Yeah!

I've never understood Lieberman's appeal, frankly, since he's spent most of the time since 9/11 being *'s good buddy on most crtical issues. I was very surprised at Kerry's numbers, too; what in the world is happening, do you think?

National polls are more interesting than significant, at this point, but it's still interesting to know what the base is generally thinking. :)

[Bucky]

5. Lieberman's appeal

I don't care for Joe L. either. But if your main source of political discourse is DU & related sites, you're not going to have a very clear picture of the broader political culture. Here in this discussion board people routinely call Bush a nazi and we either shrug it off or join the chorus.

This is the same sort of self-referenced, closed-system tunnel vision that keeps Freepers crazy in their own basements. To the wider world Lieberman is not a conservative, much less a closet Republican. He's a moderate Democrat with strong support among many traditional Democratic constituencies--retirees, Jews, some unions, and the foriegn policy establishment.

We can blind ourselves to just how diverse our party's makeup is, alienate the political center, and get McGoverned up the ass next November, or we can work to broaden the Democratic coaltion and retain all our constituent groups and stand a fair chance of beating the Axis of Diebold.

Your choice.

(on a separate rant, I really loath the casual devaluation of the term "nazi." If you think George Bush is a nazi you might want to refresh your memory of exactly what it is that the real nazis did.

[Padraig18]

7. I agree about the party's diversity.

The Democratic party I see here at DU is a brother or first-cousin to the one I see and know IRL; here on the boards it is significantly more 'left' than the moderate/center-left party I was raised in in Chicago and the one in which I now work in downstate Illinois. We do tend to assume that DU is somehow a perfect reflection of the non-DU world, when it is clearly not.

Thanks for your insights. :hi:

[jmw25]

3. actually.....

I saw a similar poll the other day (National Poll) and Dean was in second, with 13%. Who was number 1????

Hillary, with 47%.

[Padraig18]

4. Yep!

Fortunately for us all, she loves our party enough to not run this year. :)

[Bucky]

6. Hillary at 47%

That must've been a pretty old poll. There were a couple of "Hillary factor" polls out over the summer. PollingReports.com is the best source for this. Since the pre-primary debates started, serious pollsters aren't asking any "what if's" about Clinton entering the race.

[mdguss]

8. Dean is a joke:

What he just said regarding the confederate flag was a tremendously stupid thing to say. Dean has some strong points, but I support Senator Kerry because I have this fear that Dean will be running a good campaign, and on the verge of defeating Bush when he has a Dukakis moment, and says or does something tremendously stupid, thereby blowing the election. Additonally, I am unconvinced that the country is ready to elect somebody from the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party."

Finally, I don't really buy that Dean is a member of the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." His record: supported NAFTA, supported Gingrich led Medicare cuts, supported the first Iraq war, supports the NRA, environmentalists don't think much of his record as Vermonts Governor, and on and on and on. He has found one issue (Iraq) where he is clearly aligned with the liberal wing of the party. I think Gov. Dean will eventually be called on his flopping, and end up dropping out. It says something about the liberals that they're getting behind this guy when he really isn't even one of them. I think there is a plausible argument for placing Dean to the right of Lieberman.

I think the question is do we as a party want to nominate a person who best expresses our anger with the present administration, or do we want to nominate a candidate that can win, and undo Bush's damage. We're mad (and rightly so) at Bush for using tradegy to justify outrageous policy actions. But anger will not win. Experience, military service, a strong envrionmental record, and an ability to say, "I can do that, and do it better," is what is going to win next year. There's a reason Kerry does better against Bush than Dean.

[Padraig18]

9. Hmmm...

Semms that *Democrats* disagree with your candidate assesment by a 2:1 margin, and since securing the nomination is antecedent to going head-to-head with Bush, that's rather problematic for your man, isn't it? :shrug:

[Demobrat]

10. Kerry's done.

The I'm A Real Soldier And Bush Isn't vote is going to Clark. And Kerry ain't got nothin' else. Bye.

[Padraig18]

11. Yep.

And the anger directed at Dean grows with each day that the Kerry campaign further implodes; that's how I knew the new numbers would be bad--- the level of hystrionic attacks has increased this past week.

[mitchum]

16. and the histrionic defenses really kicked into overdrive...

this weekend

[mitchum]

13. Kerry has nothing else but a decades-long history of liberal votes...

(unlike the Mayor of Vermont)

[Demobrat]

14. Vermont is a state.

States don't have mayors. The Governor of Vermont, on the other hand, is quite well know for signing the first gay civil union bill into law. Some people consider that to be moderately liberal.

[mitchum]

15. Uh...it's a damning joke (you will probably hear alot)

"...moderately liberal" Hell, I have nothing to add to that.
Thanks

[Padraig18]

17. Unfortunately for Sen. Kerry...

... our party does not believe in the divine right of kings, so he has to get out there and run with any and everyone else who wants to do the same. John Kerry is in no way 'entitled' to the nod--- that is something the voters (remember them?) alone are entitled to bstow.

Deal with it.

[mitchum]

18. But apparently you do believe in the divine rights of queens...

since that's the only "liberal" arrow in Howie's quiver

[Padraig18]

19. Bravo!

Speaking as one of those 'queens', I am *thrilled* with what Gov. dean did in VT.

It's hard to watch someone you believe in's campaign implode, isn't it?

[mitchum]

20. Speaking as another one...

it would take more than Howie's half loaf to ignore the man's many faults. Bill Clinton was the last Republican I will ever vote for.

[Padraig18]

21. As you wish!

That's the great thing about America. I see all of Dean's faults--- I just don't see the made-up, 'bogeyman' ones. Kerry has many, and many just as bad.

[mitchum]

22. That's cool. We can be civil

[Padraig18]

23. Yes, we can.

I've never asked for anything more from any supporter of a different candidate. :hi:

On edit: Being a fellow queen, though, I'm sure you understand that I am quite capable of dishing it out in response to an uncivil 'diss. Hehehe. :P

[Demobrat]

25. Universal health care is liberal enough

for me.

[blm]

24. Check again. Kerry has the best matchup with Bush. Dean the worst.

November  03,  2003

A newly released Washington Post-ABC news poll conducted October 26-29 confirms that Kerry polls best among the leading Democrats and is in the strongest position to take on George W. Bush, far outpolling Howard Dean and Wesley Clark. 

Matchups:
Percentage
Margin
George Bush 
50%
-6
John Kerry
44%

____________


George Bush 
54%
- 15
Howard Dean
39%

____________


George Bush 
51%
- 11
Wesley Clark
40%

____________


George Bush 
51%
- 9
Dick Gephardt 
42%

[a_lil_wall_fly]

26. True...

This it is but polls are not the real thing it is a gauge with a margin of error plus on any given day it could change like the weather.

Yes, Kerry right now has ONLY a -6 vs. Bush....next week it could be far worse or a positive. But that could the same for any candidate that is vying for the party nod.

Kerry is a good guy; he is getting more bitter on the attacks than Liberman or Gephardt..and too me that is not good for the party.

[Padraig18]

30. Too bad that...

... he has to run in those pesky primaries 1st, huh? :eyes:

[Padraig18]

12. Kick

[FluxRostrum]

27. I thought nobody believed polls

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=75725

Dean KO'd in the 1st round
http://www.demochoice.org/dcresults.php?poll=0310#Round1

CNBC
http://kucinichwatch.com/support/CNBC-9-29.htm

Hispanics have a preference
http://www.univision.com/content/content.jhtml?cid=256899#x

[a_lil_wall_fly]

28. Interesting

DemoChoice = Gore 1st :P

and Kerry 2nd

that could be a good ticket

:wow:

[blm]

35. heheh...dream ticket for policy wonks.

.

[FluxRostrum]

29. Polls Show Support

for Dennis Kucinich's Positions
If the media would let people know about Dennis he'd have their support too. but, That's what they're afraid of.


OPPOSING IRAQ WAR -- Chicago Tribune poll in Illinois published on Oct. 27, 2003. "Fully 57 percent of Democratic voters said they would favor a candidate who opposed the congressional resolution that authorized the war against Iraq, compared with 22 percent who said they would support candidates who backed the resolution. Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman and Gephardt voted for it; Kucinich voted against it."

REPEALING BUSH TAX CUTS FOR WEALTHY -- Chicago Tribune poll in Illinois published on Oct. 27, 2003. "By a narrow plurality, 40 percent of Democratic voters said they would favor a candidate who supports repealing only the portions of the Bush tax cut that benefited the wealthy. Another 33 percent said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who favors repealing the entire income-tax and capital-gains cut package. Only 12 percent said they were likely to back a candidate who would leave the Bush tax-cut package intact."

UNIVERSAL HEALTH COVERAGE -- ABC News/Washington Post conducted a poll between Oct. 9 and 13, 2003. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample). Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch. "Which would you prefer: the current health insurance system in the United States, in which most people get their health insurance from private employers, but some people have no insurance, OR, a universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that's run by the government and financed by taxpayers?"
All respondents: Current system: 32%, Universal program: 62%, No opinion: 5%

PROTECTING SOCIAL SECURITY FROM PRIVATIZATION -- The Los Angeles Times Poll. Dec. 12-15, 2002. N=1,305 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample). "There has been some talk about allowing younger workers to divert payroll tax money from Social Security into private investment accounts which they can then manage themselves. Some people say this is a good thing because it is possible to earn a higher rate of return in the stock market. Others say the stock market is too unpredictable to trust it with Social Security funds. What do you think? Do you approve or disapprove of allowing younger workers to divert their payroll tax money from Social Security into private investment accounts?"
Democratic respondents: Approve: 32%, Disapprove: 66%, Don't know: 9%

REDUCING CORPORATE INFLUENCE IN GOVERNMENT -- The Harris Poll. Feb. 12-16, 2003. N=1,010 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. "And now a question about the power of different groups in influencing government policy, politicians, and policymakers in Washington. Do you think big companies have too much or too little power and influence on Washington?"
All respondents:
Too much: 80%
Too little: 10%
About right: 4%
Don't know: 5%

FOREIGN AID -- The Harris Poll. Feb. 12-16, 2003. N=1,010 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. "Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement. As one of the world's rich nations, the United States has a moral responsibility toward poor nations to help them develop economically and improve their people's lives."
All respondents:
Agree: 68%
Disagree: 30%
Don't know: 2%

[Tom Rinaldo]

31. Which candidate is positioned to pick up support?

If you've read my other posts you probably know my answer. Wesley Clark. I am amazed when I read a thread like this how quickly his name is glossed over. Big mistake. Some observations: Note that his support is starting to shore up now after the artificial "flavor of the month" highs that came when he announced? Actually it is starting to bounce up. His low coincided with a) the first round of attacks against him which dinged his "prefect candidate" image b) the reality that a brand new campaign organization could not hit high gear within 10 days of being formed c) his getting laryngitis for 6 key days while the first blows were being landed against him and d) his failure to deliver knock 'em dead" performances in the first debates.

And with all of that he is still solidly in the top tier and leading in a number of state polls. Regarding all of the above factors, things are currently looking up for Clark. I've said this before, Clark is a remarkably fast learner. The other candidates have done sound bite debating for years, they won't improve at it. Clark already has improved and will continue to. His campaign staff is gaining its footing, same as all the others did, except his started later. The point is, the worse is behind him, it only gets better now.

Clark has very solid fund raising abilities. He is considering opting out of Federal matching funds, something he wouldn't consider if fund raising were an issue. That means his campaign will have the resources it needs to implement a post NH Primary campaign strategy. Unless he comes in a weak fourth in NH (I expect him to be a strong 3rd) the results of Iowa and NH will not hurt him, but they will inevitably hurt many of his competitors. Everyone other than Clark, and the Iowa and New Hampshire winners, will lose momentum coming out of the first two weeks (unless Edwards or Lieberman beats Clark in NH, which I don't see happening).

Where do you think the supporters of the fading candidates will go? Go down the list. Clark has appeal for moderates, populists, and radicals. The only group that is slow to warm to him are "political insiders" who think inside the box and naturally relate most easily to elected politicians. And other than those backing Dean they can all turn on a dime if Clark starts emerging as a credible alternative to Dean. If Lieberman and Edwards start fading, where will those votes go? There's a lot of bad blood between Kerry and Gephardt supporters on the one hand and Dean supporters on the other. Clark even more than Kerry has the strong military record card to play, he should pull most of Kerry's votes if Kerry stumbles. If Edwards fails to break through Clark is the only Southerner etc. etc. Clark will be the unifying candidate. Even the Dean backers don't have much against him other than he's running agaisnt their man.

I know I can be wrong on this, but I just don't see Gephardt catching on fire post Iowa, even if he wins there. If you look for fire in the belly supporters, three Democratic Party candidates have the bulk of them. Dennis Kucinich has some, but not many voters beyond his active base. Dean sure has them, and while everyone now takes for granted that Dean is a formidable candidate that wasn't the case 9 months ago. His hard core devoted base, and resulting fund raising capacity etc. is a big part of that shift from also ran to front runner. Clark is the third of that trio. Strong second in meetup registrants, second most visited Democratic candidate web site, fervent draft movement lined up behind him etc. That base is starting to move out and recruit. Pay attention and don't be fooled by old line talking heads. Their is a strong Wesley Clark movement picking up speed. He has the personal integrity and appeal that pushed Jimmy Carter to the top from "out of nowhere", except of course he's also a retired 4 Star General which brings a lot to the table. If you haven't seen Clark speak in person, you may be missing the fervor and loyalty this man inspires.

[Padraig18]

32. Your observations are astute.

Clark has, in fact, solidified and is 'picking up steam'; a look at the numbers would (I think) support the notion that Clark's entry into the race is partially/largely the reason why Kerry's numbers have dropped so dramatically.

I see and interesting month, starting with Iowa. :hi:

[Tom Rinaldo]

33. P.S. RE: "fire in belly supporters"

I apologize for leaving Al Sharpton out of the category of Candidates with passionate supporters, obviously he fits that description also. Though no one believes he will win the nomination, his constituency is fired up and critical to the Democratic Party. It certainly doesn't look like Sharpton will be steering his support to Dean anytime soon.

[Padraig18]

34. Kick