Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards alliance

[paulk]

Apparently these three campaigns are already working together to deny Dean the SEIU endorsement.

Dean's rhetoric has gone a long way toward alienating the other candidates. If I were a Dean supporter I would see Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards working together against my candidate as a very bad sign.

It wouldn't surprize me if votes weren't already being lined up for the Iowa caucuses here. I don't have the most recent polls, but I'm sure that Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards combined are polling well ahead of Dean. If these three work together they can easily defeat Dean in Iowa, perhaps even denying him a second place finish.


This alliance, if it truly exists, is bad news for the Dean campaign.

[w13rd0]

1. Bad news for the alliance...

...if they have to team up to defeat Dean, because each of them alone can't do it, then how are we to expect any one of them, on their own, to defeat Bush? Desperation on the part of the Washington establishment.

[AWD]

2. Amen to that...

....but apparently, Edwards thinks his rivals have gone too far in attacking fellow Dems. I wonder if his "Axis Of Feeble" agrees, or do they not stop to think while they're attacking Dean????

[dajabr]

8. "Axis Of Feeble"

snicker... :D

[helleborient]

3. It does seem like a sign...

That the "anyone but Dean" campaign has begun, which traditionally has been a last ditch effort.

We've had "anyone but Carter," "anyone but Mondale," "anyone but Clinton" movements in past primary seasons. I can't recall an "anyone but..." campaign that has succeeded.

I, for one, was part of the "anyone but Clinton" campaigning in Michigan in 1992 supporting Jerry Brown in a woefully disorganized, inept campaign structure.

[LuminousX]

Good god, let's hope Anyone But Bush succeeds

[cjbuchanan]

11. Nice prospective

Thank you for bringing it up. No matter which one of these nine takes the race, we all have to do everything to make sure Bush & Co. do not get four more years.

[helleborient]

15. Yep, and when we get to anyone but Bush...

We'll have a single candidate as the standard bearer...and I'm looking forward to being pro whomever it is, not just anti Bush. That's where the real passion for working will come.

[9119495]

27. Thanks X

I noticed your "X"ed out faces and its nice to see someone who prefers a candidate other than Dean remind us to keep our eyes on the prize. I support Dean but will support the nominee--and quite vigorously. However, I'd been so put off by the tremendously angry anti-Dean (usually pro-Kerry) supporters, I was beginning to wonder if anyone outside the Dean camp shared my view. I suspect we could be more successful next year if everyone displayed more of this attitude on DU.

A common attitude here should be "your guy sucks...and I can't wait until he beats bush."

[LuminousX]

33. Well, I'm not anti-Dean

I'm very much pro-Dean, but I am having difficulties with certain negative attributes of his campaign so I decided to allow this forum to guide my education of the other candidates as sort of a thought experiment. I decided I would attempt to defend every candidate and, well, I still spend my of my time defending Dean.

[xultar]

4. An alliance like that is SAD

Which makes me think that Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards need to get out of the race. I don't like it one bit. I was thinking that Edwards would make a great VP. Now I'm not so sure. The fact that he would go for an alliance like that concerns me.

[LuminousX]

5. Oookay...

The Dean campaign has faced bad news before. Are you saying the Dean campaign should just cave or preemptively strike at these three before Iowa. I'm not understanding your position.

[paulk]

19. I'm not taking a position

When I first heard of this "alliance", I just tried to make an objective guess about what it could mean, especially in regard to Dean in Iowa.

There are certainly powerful factions within the Democratic party who don't want Dean as our nominee. Now that Dean has shown himself to be a legitimate candidate, we can expect the knives to come out.

[LuminousX]

26. Since your brought it up though

provide us with some analysis. What does it mean if the succeed? What does it mean if they don't?

[paulk]

28. I think they will succeed in at least denying Dean a win in Iowa

I think Gephardt will win in Iowa. He has a good chance anyway, being from right next door. The real test will be if they can gather enough support to put either Kerry or Edwards in 2nd place. Probably Kerry, since he's polling ahead of Edwards. Edwards will get his shot in S.C.

If Dean takes 2nd, he'll still be in good shape going into N.H., however, if Kerry beats him out in Iowa for 2nd, it would be devastating for his campaign. It would certainly tighten things up in N.H., and with the lead he has now, even a close win for Dean in N.H. might be seen as a defeat. Look at Clinton/Tsongas '92.

If Dean bombs in S.C., he will have a hard time being seen as a front runner come super Tuesday.

I think this scenario is plausible. Dean has made enemies of the DLC, and like it or not, those people have a lot of power.

[LuminousX]

36. I would disagree with the 'devastating'

And there isn't any way to logically get Kerry to 2nd place if Gephardt takes 1st. Dean's core vote would secure him second place even if the other three game the votes.

[Demobrat]

6. Bad news for Dean? Yeah, right.

Until he gets it anyway. How embarassing will that be for the axis of feeble?

[LuminousX]

9. Axis of the Feeble!

I'm definately keeping that one. If they fail to block the union endorsement after getting this kind of press, they will make Dean look like a steamroller.

They've chosen a dangerous tactic at a dangerous time. Normally I would acknowledge and appreciate risks like this, but this was done because individually they are afraid of risk. They need to act in concert to minimize personal responsibility.

[Demobrat]

34. Just for the record

I didn't make it up, some other DUer did.

[cjbuchanan]

7. I have to disagree

First, it is true these three are working together.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&e=1&u=/ap/20031104/ap_on_el_pr/dean_labor

I disagree that this is a bad thing because it forces these three camps to talk about Dean instead of their own ideas. This gets Dean's name in even more press. Since all three of these guys are in Congress, it also cements his image as an outsider.

As far as them easily defeating Dean in Iowa, these three are some of the people responsible for the Dems showing in 2002, so I think that Dean's death is not assured.

Finally, by this action, these three have helped push the idea that it is indeed Dean's race to lose.

Just my thoughts on the subject.

[Hawkeye-X]

10. The Axis of Feebles

won't even get Iowa, NH, or SC combined.

That's Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards in that order. Once the Dems get a drift of that alliance, their votes will go elsewhere.

Hawkeye-X

[paulk]

23. I found some poll numbers

Gephardt and Dean tied at 26%
Kerry at 15%
Edwards - not sure, probably at least 6% (from Sept. poll)

Because of the way the Iowa caucus works, with the losers of each round having to throw their support to another candidate, these three could easily deny Dean the top spot if they work together.

And don't forget, Gephardt is the favorite son. His people have lots of experience with the caucus process. Gephardt himself has lots of experience in the kind of backroom dealing that will go on here.

[LuminousX]

32. That always is a possibility, but Dean doesn't have to carry Iowa

but if he does lose it, he will need to carry New Hampshire. Really, I hope Gephardt does carry Iowa just to take some negativity off of Dean for awhile and get people talking about Gep.

[MichDem10]

12. Smart move...

It is about time that they try to save the Union from itself! The SEIU should wait for the field to thin out before endorsing any candidate. If Dean loses, their endorsement means squat!

Dean's campaign poll numbers have been driven by name RECOGNITION generated by the press. The general public (when asked by polling agencies)will pick a name they recognize!

The SEIU is desperate to get behind the current "front runner". It reminds me of sheep lining up for slaughter!! BAAAHHHH!!

[AWD]

14. Completely untrue.....

Dean's campaign poll numbers have been driven by name RECOGNITION generated by the press.

When Dean was at 2%, we were supporting him...WE went and generated support through the internet and grass-roots campaigning. NO MEDIA picked up on him until he surged to the lead.

So don't for one minute try to spread the bullshit that he's media-driven to his numbers. Because you and I both know it's not true.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AWD]

17. It's not a question of opinion...

...it's of you spinning the facts and rewriting history.

Back when Dean was at 2% (you know 2% right...your guy is still there), we fought AGAINST the media, who were too busy pumping up Bush as the savior. It wasn't until he hit 14% before ANY major news outlet gave him any attention.

Print the facts right and you don't have to worry about people getting testy.

[MichDem10]

18. Fact...

PRESS = RECOGNITION = INCREASED Polling numbers!!
It's called the transitive property.

P.S. I'm not worried about you or anyone getting testy. Thank for your concern. :toast:

[AWD]

21. Sigh

FACT - Dean got no media recognition until he was ALREADY LEADING. You claimed he only has the numbers because of the media, but he had the numbers BEFORE the media gave him attention.

Your spinning yourself right into a corner.

[MichDem10]

24. Actually...

Dean's numbers did not climb until he was anoited by the press as the "front runner". People like jumping on the band wagon to give themselves a feeling of comfort. As the wagon starts going towards the cliff they will jump off just as quick as they jumped on.

This campaign has just started and I'm not worried about Howard. As history has shown... the gloves will come off and the attacks will get worse.

By the way... that corner you were talking about... Ali used to call it rope a dope...

Does your character represent
1) The latest Star Wars Sith - Darth Dean
2) Jimmy "Super Fly" Dean
3) The Angry Howard Dean Hiding behind a false mask

I sense fear ... Fear leads to Anger , Anger leads to Pain, Pain leads to Suffering.

Lighten up! Bush is the one you need to :kick: in the balls!

[tsipple]

13. Taking His Bow... :-)

A new phrase has officially entered the political lexicon. :evilgrin:

In lieu of royalties, click on the link in my signature, then click on Contribute. :-)

[Thomas Jefferson]

20. Good

I heard that the SEIU endorsement was a pre-arranged deal. I'm glad some of the candidates are fighting back.

[deutsey]

22. It is a bad sign...

The old school Democratic Party is even more pathetic than I thought.

[unfrigginreal]

25. It's a bad sign for Democratic voters

Shows you the lengths that establishment candidates will go to refuse giving up power. To hell with what the voters think, we know whats best for them.

[nocreativename]

29. I have already said this

But, I thought the idea was to join forces to attack Bush not Dean. I HATE THE DLC.

[helleborient]

30. It will be rather interesting to see how they really plan to do this...

Because it would seem they would have to unite behind one candidate across the state...or do very sophisticated horse-trading in indivdual precincts and such.

Usually, in the caucuses, any candidate with over 15% of the voters present is not encouraged to throw their support to another candidate...only those under 15%.

If the current polls are accurate...it's likely that Dean, Gephardt and Kerry would all be over 15% in most of the state...leaving Edwards, Kucinich, Sharpton and Braun supporters to find someone else. Edwards would be enough to give Gephardt a victory, but not Kerry.

Would Kerry really accept 3rd place or worse in Iowa going into New Hampshire?

It will be very interesting.

[paulk]

35. The 15% applies if a caucus is going to send 4 or more delegates

to the county convention. If they send 2, the cut-off could be as high as 25%. I've been trying to figure out how they choose the number of delegates, but I admit to be very confused about this...

this has the formula, but math was never my strong suite:

http://www.iowademocrats.org/article.php?story=20030602150919768

[helleborient]

38. It is very very complex...

And I wouldn't be surprised if 2 or 3 candidates are able to claim a "win" out of the process. Probably the one left out of Dean, Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards who can't claim a win of some type will be the actual loser.

Then the whole thing moves to New Hampshire...

[Padraig18]

31. They're scared shitless!

Everyone except Gephart is floundering, sinking in the polls...

[quinnox]

37. I am very pleased about this

These three are my favorite candidates, and an alliance is something I didn't imagine would happen.

I list them in order, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, I hope they keep being friendly, I have a feeling the ticket could end up with a combination of two of these three.

[Egnever]

40. More than pleased!

I am extatic about this!

This goes a long way to pointing out why we must get new people in washington. The idea that three congress critters would align to try to defeat a fellow dem is exactly what is wrong with our party in washington.

The scrambling by these insiders all of which were on the wrong side of this lousy war,points to the desperation to maintain the status quo in washington full of the connected and monied making the decisions and disregarding the wishes of the people.

This action from them highlights thier unwilingness to represent the people and a desire to hold onto the power they have in spite of the peoples wishes.

Yet again these three shoot themselves in the foot thanks to thier willingness to listen to political advisors woefully out of touch with thier constituents.

Bring the axis of the feeble on! This will only ruin any hope they had of gaining the nod, and perhaps ruin any chances they have of retaining thier seats.

The only thing I see as bad about this is the fact that these three are weakening thier images as leaders in and of themselves and promoting the image that they are weak and out of touch with the american public. Fortunately for them the american public has a short memory.

It leaves me wondering though. In thier alliance who is the leader. Its great to say they will band together to stop dean but who are they banding together to prop up? Two of them will lose even in thier own cenario. which of the two are stepoing down?

If they are so willing to band together why not flip a copin and get behind the winner completely. Or is it just a mutuasl destruction scheme?

[quinnox]

42. I don't think it is a matter of

two stepping down and letting one win. That isn't what this is about, in my opinion.

What this is about is uniting (for the moment) against the perceived front-runner for strategic reasons.

They are all still in competition with each other, if the strategy proves successful, I am confident the alliances will no longer apply.

I think of it like a game of Risk, where players shift alliances depending on the current leader, and where allies and enemies can interchange.

[polpilot]

39. Good news to see them line up opposite Dean. Drawing a clear

distinction will fuel the Dean campaign AND help in cementing the cross over Repub votes that Dean has always gotten in his races. This race is about CLEAR DIFFERENCES: If you like where the
U.S. is today then congratulate and vote for the Gep/Kerry/Edwards team. If you don't like what has happened to our country then vote Dean.

Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of The NEW Democratic Party.

[CMT]

41. of course this isn't new

in 1976 Frank Church, Jerry Brown, Mo Udall, Scoop Jackson and others went out of there way to try and stop Jimmy Carter, another outsider. They were called ABC's--Anybody but Carter.