Is Dean getting both the SEIU and the AFSCME ?

[Egnever]

The anouncement from SEIU was held off so that the AFSCME could make thier anouncements at the same time. Is it because they are both going to endorse him?

[CMT]

1. it is looking that way

here is a link to article on MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.com/news/988836.asp?0cv=CB10

According to article Gerald McEntee, the head of AFSCME called on SEIU to delay their endorsement until next week and speculation is they will do a joint endorsement of Howard Dean. Between the two unions is 3.1 million members and they are among the most politically powerful and efficient in the AFL-CIO.

If this happens it is huge for Dean.

[LuminousX]

2. Holy Hannah

Too bad about the delay though as it would be nice to be able to factor the endorsement into the current situation, but in a few more days, it will make a bigger impact because it won't be competiting with the flag issue.

[blm]

3. Maybe....but, I doubt it.

The SEIU endorsement would only HELP Dean get the AFSCME. McEntee isn't the type to piggyback.

[slinkerwink]

5. McEntee wants to be the kingmaker

This is probably why he wants the AFSCME to make a joint endorsement with the SEIU next week....

[CMT]

6. but why would he ask SEIU to delay their endorsement then?

why not let them have their day in the sun and then if he wasn't endorsing Dean but someone else he would have the field open to himself next week. It seems to me to be adding up to a joint endorsement of Dean, though I could be wrong.

[BrewCrew]

9. here is why

Stern said they (The SEIU EXec Board)decided today to back Dean, but that another union had requested they delay the announcement. So now they'll have a joint press conference and rally next Wednesday showing the unity of 3 million workers (AFSCME and SEIU) behind Dean. That is much better than each doing it seperately. It's all strategy!

[sfecap]

18. The AFSCME and the SEIU are "rivals", so to speak...

They each represent the same type of workers, and have been in a few organizing battles.

The AFSCME is the prize endorsement w/r/t politicians running for President, as they spend more, do more, and are more "politically" active than any other union in the ALFCIO. However, the SEIU has committed to a $20 million dollar "get out the vote campaign" this election, along with lots of foot soldiers. They have thousands of members in key primary states like Iowa and NH.

The SEIU has the largest membership of any AFLCIO union, about 1.7 million members. The AFSCME has about 1.5 million.

The AFSCME was not going to announce until December, and has talked to all of the candidates. It looks like as a courtesy, the SEIU will wait until the AFSCME can convene an Executive Board session to formally move up their announcement date, and then they will jointly announce for Dean. It is a move that shows great solidarity, regardless of intra union politics.

This will be a very, very, big announcement. Perhaps the biggest with regard to labor endorsements.

It is apparent that the SEIU is behind Dean. It will be interesting to see what the AFSCME does.

[Nicholas_J]

27. Actually

AFSCME represents promarily government workers, white collar professionals, secretaries, and other government office workers, where SEIU represents blue collar workers. These are not primarily the same kinds of workers, and this is where the two unions differ. And why AFSCME had decided to wait. They moiugh support Dean if he look like he will be the nominee, but they do not want to support him too early, as government workers were ofted screwed by Dean when he was governor, most of the types of workers who Dean did not support when he was governor were police, firemen, and such. AFSCME will support Dean, but only as a last choice. I think they may also be taking the extra time to make the case for waiting, or not supporting Dean by going into the record of his activities as governor, who AFSCME frequenttly had to deal with Dean in Vermont in an adversartial position, and not in a friendly one. As the governor, who was concerned wirth balancing budgets, Dean negotiated DOWN and against AFSCME contract requests. Not for them.

[Lefty48197]

63. I thought the Pro 2nd Amendment Democrats supported Dean?

Isn't Kerry a "gun grabber" like the rest of us Democrats?

[deutsey]

72. Two Large Unions Set to Push for Dean

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031106/ap_on_el_pr/labor_dean

WASHINGTON - In a campaign coup, Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean (news - web sites) won the support of one of the nation's largest unions on Thursday and was poised to capture the endorsement of a second labor powerhouse.

More...

[BrewCrew]

4. Yep

AFSCME and SEIU will make a joint endorsement next Wednesday. And they are also waiting for more unions possibly to join. Not sure, if anyone else will join but its possible. This also effectively does the added benefit of blocking a full AFL-CIO endorsement for Gephardt. It is now mathematically impossible for any candidate to garner the full backing of the AFL-CIO pre convention. It looks like the AFL-CIO is fully split with fast growing service unions backing Dean and the trade-focused industrial unions behind Gephardt.

AFSCME is also extremely powerful in Iowa with a lot of members, so that aspect of it helps Dean also.

Dean isn't my horse, but I will say congrats to his supporters. This is a Huge day for you guys, especially after the tough week you've had! Enjoy!

[CMT]

7. thank you

for your kind words.

[helleborient]

8. Thank you! (n/t)

[Vikingking66]

42. I'm going to celebrate by seeing the Matrix

Dean is the One, Trippi is Morpheus, Judith is Trinity, ahahahahaha!
I need to relax.

[LuminousX]

10. Devil's Advocate

This article (http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/06/mgrind.day.SEIU/index.html) points to bad relations between the two union presidents. What could this mean in the context one union asked the other to postpone?

If they do come together to endorse Dean, we will have clear proof of Dean 'uniting' not dividing. If they come together to NOT endorse Dean, I think that would be a significant blow to the campaign. Not a death blow by a longshot, but a clear setback.

Folks, this is why I like Politics better than baseball.

[BrewCrew]

12. good point

LuminousX their is definitely been some bad blood between McEntee and Stern, a few years back McEntee accussed Stern of trying to steal members, but today I think they both see Dean as the most electable and probably the best candidate for their members (remember trade isnt really the main issue for these service unions, so they feel less alligence to Gephardt).

Major service union to endorse Dean but holds off announcement
LEIGH STROPE, AP Labor Writer
Thursday, November 6, 2003
©2003 Associated Press

URL: sfgate.com/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2003/11/06/national1538EST0697.DTL

(11-06) 12:44 PST WASHINGTON (AP) --

In a major boost to his campaign, Democrat Howard Dean is getting a prized presidential endorsement from one of the nation's largest unions.

However, the Service Employees International Union, which has 1.6 million members, said it would not announce its endorsement decision until next week, at the request of Gerald McEntee, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

Dean was the only candidate to meet Thursday with members of the SEIU board, and he appeared at a union news conference wearing an SEIU jacket with the words, "Dr. Dean."

"It has been a great process and a great pleasure," Dean said, adding that "on Wednesday we're going to have a lot more to say."

SEIU President Andy Stern said the union's endorsement would be announced Wednesday.

"We have reached a decision and we are hopeful that there are other unions who share our members excitement for Dr. Dean's candidacy," Stern said.

The former Vermont governor smiled and rolled his eyes when the announcement was made.

Top union officials told at least three Democratic campaigns Wednesday night that Dean was getting the SEIU endorsement.

[Egnever]

13. Agreed

when I first heard that the SEIU was not going to anounce today I imediatly thought it was over the flag flap. My heart went to my shoes thinking this was going to be a huge blow to Dean. Now that it apears to be just the oposite and that in fact he will get both I think it reafirms my belief that people saw through the flag thing.

The feeling I had when I thought they were withdrawing thier endorsement however, leads me to agree with you that if in fact it does go the other way it will be a huge blow to his campaign.

Oh and yes politics is way more exciting than basebell. Of course this a is a partcularly important election and the high stakes make this political season more fascinating than the best cliffhanger I have ever seen.

[Upfront]

64. Na

I don't think one union would wait for the other if they were not going to back the same guy. Doubt one union ask the other to wait if they were not on the same page. Looking for a bigger impact. Looks good for Dean.

[Nicholas_J]

11. It could be just as well

That AFSCME convinced SEIU to wait until they look at what their members want to do, and also decide to wait until after the early primaries to get an idea who willbe more likely to win once the earier primaries weed out some of the other candidates.

Having been a member, shop steward and unions activist with AFSCME for 20 years, things like this generally mean cutting some sort of deal, and this deal may be to wait until February, rather than to endorse now.

The problem is that whenver the unions have been split like this, with the AFL-CIO endorsing no-one, democrats have tended to lose against the republicans, except in the case of Clinton.


Dean is not as strong with AFSCME workers, as Dean has had a history of cutting government programs, and that means government jobs.

[LuminousX]

14. They claim to be announcing next Wednesday

If they were going to wait until February, they would have indicated an indefinate time. I can't imagine them pulling back right now just to announce next week that they are pulling back again for a few months.

That is illogical.

And if they are not friendly to each other, what reason would they have to announce something together unless they are in step with each other (either for or against) and will be announcing that next week.

[sfecap]

19. It's about solidarity.

There is a "rivalry" between the unions. They have been in a couple of organizing "battles"...

The joint announcement signifies, respect for each other, and a solid unified front for the candidate they think will win the Primary and the General election.

This is a very big deal. Very big indeed. The combined membership of these two unions is over 3 million. Just think what the fundraising capability of that is. Think of how many feet they can put into key states.

Big. Very big.

[LuminousX]

20. 3 million x $75

$225 million

How much has Bush raised?

lol...

Dean better opt out!!

[Nicholas_J]

24. Union politics and decisions

Are not always what they seem to be.

The solidarity could be to decide to see who is the candidate who has the most support by the membership of BOTH unions and it is possible that they sill decide to select antoher candididate, who hjas the most support in BOTH unions, rather that individually.

Could also simply be that the AFSCME leadership wants to announce first, and lessen the steam of SEIU's announcement.

The fact that they are waiting does not mean that AFSCME has decided to support a candidate yet. If thier is not overwhelming support for Dean among the mebership of AFSCME, the leaders are not going to support a candidate that its members are sceptical about.

My suspicion is that AFSCME has asked SEIU to go back an look at Deans record of support for union issues in Vermont while he was governor, rather than basing it on what he is sayng as candidate, as their was a good deal of resistance to Dean with a large minority in SEIU, who wanted to wait until later before giving an endorsement, and the same was true in AFSCME, wanting to wait, rather than picking someone too early and regretting it later.

It is possible that they are going to BOTH support Dean, but it is now just as likely that they could decide to support someone else, a compromise cnadidate that both unions can support, or finally agree to wait until the results of Iowa. If Gephardt wins Iowa, both unions would go to him, if Dean wins, then him. Iowa is a big state for both unions.

[LuminousX]

26. SEIU already said Dean or none; I don't think they'll back out of that

[Nicholas_J]

29. They actually didnt say Dean

If they had, they endorsemet would have been made. they are witholding it, and that means it can change.

AS governor, Dean negotiated hard with AFSCME, intent on hoding the line, minimizing icreases in government workers salaries, and reducing benfits.

Remember what AFSCME stands for:

The American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees.

Dean was very adversarial with AFSCME as governor, and was not considered a supportive governor.

A little evidence that this may be the case is that yesterday, a comment was made by a major AFSCME official that if SEIU endorsed Dean, it could lead to AFSCME deciding to support another candidate.

Holding back on a decision until next week could be a decision to wait for both to announce for Dean but could be just as much a decision to not want to divide the unions, and AFSCME cannot decide to support Dean if there does not seem to be overwheming support for Dean among its members.

[LuminousX]

37. They did

Key labor endorses Dean

The executive board of the 1.6 million-member Service Employees International Union, one of the nation's most diverse and politically active labor unions, backed the former Vermont governor over his eight Democratic rivals after a meeting in Washington.

"We have reached a decision and we are hopeful there are other unions who share our excitement for Dr. Dean's candidacy," said SEIU President Andrew Stern, who declined to formally announce the endorsement until another major AFL-CIO union makes its endorsement decision next week.

Stern, with Dean standing at his side wearing a SEIU jacket, said he had been asked by the president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees to wait to announce the decision until after it meets next Wednesday.

But several of the 63 members of SEIU executive board said there was widespread enthusiasm for Dean's candidacy as they decided to make the endorsement

[Nicholas_J]

41. Then there was absolutely NO reason

To hold back the endorsement for a week.

It is not something they would do to give AFSCME time to do the same, as a week makes no differnce, and no other unions have decided to wait until other unions announced.

as has been noted elsewhere, AFSCME and SEIU have not only a rivalry, but to be honest, most of the heads of other unions cannot stand Stern. It is possible that they will supprt Dean but there may be other reasons for waiting. The endorsement has not been made, and dean did not have the support of ALL of the 63 members of the executive board of SEIU. There are other possibleities. It is highly likely that Dean will get both endorsements, but as it stands it is certain that if Dean is the nominee, Bush will win. They first thought Dean was a threat, but now the considered analysis of the Republicans and Rove in particular, is now that they are prayng that Dean is the nominee. They are absolutely certain of A Bush win if Dean is the nominee. So am I.

[Vikingking66]

43. dude, this is silly

Why would they give AFSCME a week if AFSCME was going to endorse someone else? They'd do it now and get a strong boost for Dean until AFSCME got it's act together.

[SahaleArm]

49. My guess is to convince the AFSCME...

to support Dean. If the AFSCME already supported Dean they would have announced today. In the end the SEIU will endorse Dean with or without the AFSCME.

[LuminousX]

55. AFSCME asked SEIU to hold off until they voted next week

This is a joint announcement in support of Dean

[SahaleArm]

69. I'm not clairvoyant.

The AFSCME will vote next week and that will determine their endorsement for Dean. Unless you have some inside information you'd like to share.

[LuminousX]

73. Only the fact that SEIU essentially supported Dean

but said they would hold off on their announcement until AFSCME voted so they could make a joint announcement. You don't make a joint announcement when you are supporting two different candidates because it would dilute the announcement. You only make a joint announcement when you are speaking with one voice for one candidate.

[LuminousX]

51. Don't argue with me, argue with all the news reports

The official endorsement will be next week. Much like Jesse Jackson Jr. hasn't made his official endorsement.

[Cha]

54. 3 cheers for our campaign!

[Egnever]

38. sure sounds like they did

After meeting with leaders of the Service Employees International Union, Dr. Dean received the endorsement of the 1.6 million-member union – only the SEIU won't officially say so until Wednesday November 12.

Andrew Stern, president of the SEIU, said in a prepared statement: "Gerald McEntee, President of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, has asked us to wait to announce the decision made here today until AFSCME's board can meet. Therefore we will wait to announce."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/11/06/politics/main582358.shtml

[RevolutionStartsNow]

32. SEIU has already chosen Dean

They know who their candidate is, they are not going to go back and "re-examine his record", LOL.

No we don't know who AFSCME will endorse, but I can make a pretty good guess... :)

[Upfront]

65. My Suspicion

is your hopping around in dream land as usual.

[Cha]

52. I'm so excited about this...

I've been scanning DU for just such information!

That's all I thought about at work today to cheer myself up .."was Dean going to get the SEIU endorsement or not?"

[CMT]

15. SEIU

has polled its members and they indicate Dean has widespread support within the union. But we will know for sure next Wednesday what happens.

[Nicholas_J]

45. Widespread doesnt mean all.

Dena had good support but there are many things that could be going on here.

Those members of SEIU who did not support Dean are ripe for AFSCME to get to leave SEIU and join AFSCME, which could be what was going on today. Or it could be simply what Dean supporters suggest, that they are simplyy waiting to announce together, bit having been involved in Union politics, I would say that that is not the only, or even most likely scenario. I have seen worse done in order to get one union to get the members of another union to vote to select them. Ihave seen it happen dozens of times in the past.

[LuminousX]

53. Major Denial, but I will let you have it

Because it will make next week all that sweeter.

So, my unofficial opinion... "Dean may not get the endorsement. Oh my god, Dean's campaign is near disaster. But if he does get the double endorsement, that can only mean that he is steamrolling. It's a nailbiter alighty."

[KaraokeKarlton]

17. Denial...

The AFSCME asked the SEIU to wait to announce in 6 days, when the AFSCME will also make an announcement. If the AFSCME were going to endorse someone else or choose NOT to endorse anyone yet, they would NOT have asked the SEIU to hold off for 6 days to make their announcement.

Not only will these endorsements essentially sink Gephardt's campaign, it will have the same effect on Kerry's campaign. I wouldn't be surprised if Gephardt drops out shortly after the announcement. This will be a huge blow to his campaign.

[Closer]

16. The two unions ARE endorsing next week

According to insiders, it's a done deal.

[helleborient]

25. Such a great great thing!!!!

Grinning from ear to ear :-) :-) :-)

[Nicholas_J]

31. Definitely not a done deal accoring to insiders

I and VERY VERY, VERY, personally close to a number of AFSCME insiders.

It could happen, but AFSCME needs to see what its members want, which was why they did not choose to endorse early to begin with.

[LuminousX]

71. "Insiders" are often wrong

[eissa]

21. Oh yes, oh yes, oh yes!!!!

:smoke:

[ajacobson]

22. SEIU and AFSCME

According to an article from The New Republic printed on www.cbsnews.com, SEIU and AFSCME have had a long running rivalry. So the fact that Stern would delay the announcement so that McEntee can get all his ducks in a row is surprising and almost definitely means that AFSCME will endorse Dean.

Why else wait?

[LuminousX]

30. I have to agree with that assessment

In fact SEIU's statement sort of implies that no matter what, they will be endorsing Dean and they wouldn't wait for AFSCME if AFSCME was going to endorse someone else as that would dilute their announcement. They wait so the announcement will carry that much more weight.

[quinnox]

23. It might be

It is interesting, this development.

I agree that if Dean got both it would be some nice news for him, but it is foolish to think it will determine the winner of the nomination battle or even the campaign of Gephardt, for example. I mean, when Gep got 20 major unions made up of over 50,000 probable Iowa caucus members I didn't hear talk that Dean was lost or should withdraw from the race, lol.

Anyway, if it is a repudiation of Dean and they both decline to endorse him it would be a serious blow.

I am wondering maybe if the ASFME will endorse Kerry or Clark, while SEIU goes with Dean. And the ASFME is just wanting to have their time in the sun so their endorsement is as significant as the other rival union.

[helleborient]

28. Dean has never based his candidacy on union support...

Gephardt has based his candidacies on union support for many many years.

[CMT]

34. it would make more sence then to let SEIU endorse now

and then have the limelight for themselves next week.

[sfecap]

35. One word: Solidarity.

The rethugs are about to get a very big message from the two largest unions in the AFLCIO.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed. The SEIU is obviously a done deal, let's see what the AFSCME does.

[Nicholas_J]

70. thats amusing

As Dean was largely responsible for creating a union nfriendly environment in Vermont. First he actively advocated for allowing companies like Wal-Mart and other who are strong union busiting corporation, and a number of similar local smaller businesses that actually paid a little better and did provide benefits went out of business in Vermont, and were replaced by larger, low wage, non benefit companies.

Second Dean actively advocated, supported the Republicans in the Vermont Legislture and passed a bill that allowed the Government to get rid of department that had government workers doing the work, and bid the jobs out to private corporations to cut government programs and reduce government spending. Largel these jobs were the very types of jobs that SEIU collectively bargains for, but since AFSCME was the Union for these workers SEIU has not been actively informing its members of Howard Deans union busting activities in this area. I beleive that there is some little deal gfoing on between Stern and Dean, as I have spoken to a number of Florida SEIU members and they dont get it at all, because in the three SEIU unions that I have a number of freinds in, the support for Dean is not overwhelming, not even substantial.

I spent 10 years trying to get my own division in a county government unionized, and had to deal with aq number of state level officers for AFSCME, SEIU, and OPEIU while trying to get my own government division unionized ( I became disabled a year before they finally unionized, but I did much of the legal research for the attorney that the workers hired to get around the state, who for years had been playing with the local governments and saying that all of the people who eventually were allowed to unionize were FLSA exempt position and in Florida, anytine you try to unionize, a state board made up of C.E.O.'s of corporations has to decide whether your the jobs are FLSA EXEMPT of NOT, and of course almost no one who was not a blue collar worker a teacher or a nurse ever got approved. I was able to provide the attorney with federal government descriptions of my own divisions staff that said that it was they type of job that was employerstried to say were professional or managerial, but because of the low pay, the bad working conditions, and the fact that the staff are frequently made to spend much of their time doing non professional or clerical work, it should really be treated as an hourly NON-FLSA exempt job(accordin to the descriptions in the CFR)

Anyway, by the time we had finished virtually all of the county's employees ended up being allowed to have collective bargaining, not the 450 we were originally trying to get unionized, but over 4,000. Before that only 3000 of the county's 7500 employees were unionized. It took forever for me and one or two other people to get our ow co-workers riled up enough to do something as they were all afraid of retaliation, and after I became disabled, I was able to get a lot more of them to want to unionize, getting a group of ten at first toagree to kick in fifty busks a piece to see an attorney, Who was the attorney for the union that represented the 3,000 people, and then meeting with the officers of the local and state offices to decide how to procede to get enough people to sign union forms stating that they wanted collectivbe bargaining, and then getting the attorney to get the state agency to agree to that thes positions were not exempt ( I dont know why ths attorney didnt know this about my job, but after I brought copies of the stff I had researched, he went right at it, with the stuff I had found and nothing else and the state couldnt get around it. I have also been involved with assisting other professionals in my ex job to get rid of their existing union, and repace it with others, as the one they had was very much in the pocket of the employers (again local government)

Anyway, the actual picture with dealing with OPEIU, SEIU, and AFSCME, is that they all really cant stand each other, there is little solidarity, and they all cut each other down when competing for union members so viciously that it makes presidential campaigning look like a tea party. They would all tell long stories and provide evidence of the officers of their rivals of screwing the union members to get some deal for themselves personally. It was rather amusing.
And blew away any idea of the solidarity of the INternational Brotherhood of Workers.

Another rather clever thing I just discovered about Dean and Vermont Health care is that one of the reasons that the numbers of people without insurance rising in Vermont for many of the years hewas governor can be directly attributed to legialtion that Dean supported and passed as well. Simply by raising the minimum wage a little bit, he was able to get as many as fifty percent of single people off medical programs by raising their wages to just a tad above what they would need to qualify for coverage. In one year, this caused the rate of unisnsured to go from 8.6 percent to 13 percent, due to this raising of the minimum wage, and advocating for large low wage no benefit jobs, a lot of people who had benefiotsthrough their jobs lost them as the businesses that provided them were wiped out by the mega stores, and the raising of the minimum wage kncked out others by disqualifying them.

I wonder which candidate is going to start discussing these events during Deans time as governor. I wont much matter if it is before or after an endorsement, because even with such an endorsement, anything of this nature can cause problems for the executives of the unions adn result in a lot of people deciding to not vote along with the union endorsement. I have spoken to several dozen SEIU members locally and in the area of Florida I lived in ,who have said that if Dean is the nominee they will not vote for him anyway (at least in Florida here, Dean is not the overwhelming choice of its SEIU members). I know for a fact that one of the reasons that AFSCME was hesitating on endorsing anyone,is directly related to the legislation that Dean supprted and passed that allowed the state to contract out jobs if the private sector could do it cheaper (not necessarily better) than the government. It first started as a legislation related to one time jobs needed to be done by the state, but if they later decided that a large national cleaning company could do the job for as little as ten percent less than the governments maintanance department, it was , cut back the maintenance division to bare bones, and contract out the bulk of the work to a company that pays its janitors minimum wage and gves no benefits, which is a lot cheaper than having a person work for you, get rauses every year, provide a pension, buy the equipment. Fine for fical conservatism, but not so hot for the workers. Which is why while Dean was governor, and ever since, if a Vermont Progressive was running for any office, that person got the AFSCME endorsement, not the democrat. WHich is also why out of 8000 state legislators from all state in the country only eight are third party candidates and four of them are in Vermont and members of the progressive party.

While it is very possible that Dean will get the endorsements of both unions, the other candidates. articularly Gephardt, may be pulling some Dean info regarding what happened to State Local and Municipal workers while Dean was governor. While it is a small state, and the numbers of people involved are small, other things may be being discussed now at AFSCME. And if not, there may be serious problems if AFSCME decides to endorse Dean when there is not as large a support base among its members for Dean.

[DrFunkenstein]

33. From The Perspective Of A Kerry Supporter

This will blow if it happens.

[Fabio]

58. its going to.

email me to discuss.

[Vikingking66]

36. could well be

"We have reached a decision and we are hopeful that there are other unions who share our members excitement for Dr. Dean's candidacy," Stern said.

The former Vermont governor smiled and rolled his eyes when the announcement was made.

Top union officials told at least three Democratic campaigns Wednesday night that Dean was getting the SEIU endorsement.

AFSCME's executive board has been summoned to a newly scheduled meeting for Wednesday to consider an endorsement, a union official told The Associated Press.

Dean is a major contender for AFSCME's endorsement. John Kerry and Wesley Clark also are being considered. "
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA3ZZ0APMD.html

-It looks like AFSCME is seeing a Dean wave and doesn't want to miss it's chance and look like it's follow the SEIU's lead. It would be better for McEntee to endorse Dean at the same time. AFSCME could go for Clark or Kerry, but I think they're going to go with SEIU with the idea that supporting Dean gives them considerably more influence within the campaign or the future administration, given the establishment's prior support for Clark and Kerry and the placement of key members of the political establishement in their campaigns, people who would not be willing to cede power to suspiciously lefty unions.

This could have an enormous impact on the race, needless to say. If Dean gets this, it combines his incredibly well-run outsider grassroots campaign with a major pillar of the Democratic Party.
This will help to soften any oncoming blows from Gephardt or the DLC much as JJJ's endorsement helped to shield the blow from Sharpton (pre-Flag that it, although we've yet to see any major fallout).
It will, I think, diminish the Dean as harmful outsider meme and start to act as a gravitational center for elements hostile or wary of Dean previously, namely the DLC, DNC, other unions and working class groups, and the African-American community (esp. in the SEIU's case).
In any case, it once again shows how events are helping to shield the Dean campaign - this happened before on Israel and on Gephardt.
Teflon nothing, all HAIL THE ROADRUNNER!

[Nicholas_J]

39. Problem is that the DLC now strongly supports Kerry

as their internal polling show a lot of what those who compared him to McGovern indicated. Internal polls are showing that large percentages of the supporters of other candidates WILL not vote in 2004 if Dean is the nominee. It has consitantly grown over the last few months.

[Vikingking66]

40. you know what, swallow your sour grapes

The only reason the DLC's polls are showing that is because they and Kerry and Gephardt and Lieberman have been doing their level best to tar Dean. Let me ask you this, if this turns out to be the same thing that tarred Dukasis in 88 when he was smeared by Gore, will the Democratic Party leave these spoilers in charge?

Counter-factual: if Kerry voted against the War and assumed the position of the leader of the liberal faction, and Gephardt and Lieberman savaged him as a Dukasis New England liberal who would lead the party to defeat, wouldn't you be pissed?

[Nicholas_J]

44. There are a great deal of super delegate votes

that can keep Dena from receiving the nomination.

AS a matter of fact, the super delegate can make the nomination if Dean cannot get more that 37 percent of the delgates. It has never been done this way, but the Dean must win EVERY state in order for the super delegates to no be able to simply push him aside, which they can do if they do not think Dean can beat Bush and as it stands, in most polls Dean does not do well against Bush. Dena has consistantly in most polls do be the candidate who is leat likey to be able to beat bbush out of all of the top tier candidate, and this is what I think may be holding up the AFSCME selection as well as the holding back of the SEIUs final endorsement.

With Gepahrdt having so many individual unions backing him, the divided union situation plays directly into Bush's hands.

Getting both endorsements will help Dean, but on the whole, not having the national AFL-CIO endorsement is a VERY bad sign for the possibility of a win in 2004.

And that is what is worrying AFSCME. That they will be forced into a situation of endorsing a candidate who cannot beat Bush.

[KaraokeKarlton]

48. Know what will happen if the superdelegates don't go with what voters want

Bush will be guaranteed a victory because there will be a lot of people voting 3rd party or staying home. I will be one of them. The candidate the people choose is the candidate that needs to be nominated. If that doesn't happen, voters will feel an even worse betrayal than they felt over the 2000 election, pardon me...I mean SELECTION.

[CMT]

46. here is an interesting poll from New Hampshire

where the candidates are fairly well known.
Of the 66% of likely Democratic voters saying they have a favorable opinion of Kerry, 79% have a favorable opinion of Dean. Also, among that 66%, 33% say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Dean, giving Dean a lead in ballot preference among those likely Democratic primary voters saying thay have a favorable opinion of Kerry.

Of the 67% of likely Democratic voters saying they have a favorable opinion of Dean, 74% have a favorable opinion of Kerry. Among that 67%, 54% would vote for Dean and 19% would vote for Kerry (these are democrats in NH who are undecided but still have favorable opinions of both Dean and Kerry--predominately).

http:/americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

It seems to me that Dean can and will unite the party against Bush.

[LuminousX]

59. This is shocking

and flies in the face of what we are told here day in and day out. How can his positives be so high among people who know him so well if he is as polarizing as I thought he was? I will have to look into this more.

[Andromeda]

67. Dean can't beat Bush, don't ya know...

yeah, sure.

[unfrigginreal]

47. Hmmm...So the DLC poll shows that the ABD supporters won't back Dean?

Isn't that the charge ABD supporters make about Dean supporters? Interesting.

It's also nice to see the DLC still trying to do their part to keep the party unified. This is from an email that they put out today:

So far there's not a lot about the Dean campaign that shows any understanding of the need for values centrism as a way to make sure
people are willing to listen to Democrats' arguments about everything else. That's unfortunate, because no candidate for president is likely to win the nomination, much less beat George W. Bush, if his support is limited to a golden ghetto of white, upscale, culturally
liberal, antiwar voters.

There's a right way to "go South" and build the kind of biracial coalitions that have long been the key to Democratic success in the region, while broadening the base of the Democratic Party in other parts of the country as well. We urge all Democrats to remember that lesson if they hope for better luck next year.

[Nicholas_J]

50. Actually there are more problems that that:

What the DLC is finding is that there are small percentages of voters who will not vote if their candidate is not the nominee. Not large, but when you multiply it by the number of candidates who are running, you end up with something like 10-18 percent of democratic voters who will end up not voting. There are a number of Dean supporters who will not vote if Dean is not the nominee, There are a number of Kerry supporters who will not vote if Kerry is not the nominee, same for Clark, Kucinich and all of the others. The figures are small, anywhere from one to two percent depending on the candidate, but when you add them all together, it amounts to a sizable percentage. Then in every poll to date, you see for ALL of the candidates there is always one to two percent who will not vote if ANY of them are the nominee, and also a group that amounts to anywhere from five to seven percent who will vote for someone OTHER than one of the current nominees. The multiplier factor becasue of the number of candidates who are running makes the number of voters unlikely to vote much larger than it was in 2000 when there were far fewer candidates.


Even Kerry can't beat Bush according to the polls, and the same figures apply him as to Dean. There are simply people who will not vote if Dean or Kerry or Gephardt are nominated. But the DLC stands on trying to select the person who polls show have the best chances, and no matter how well Dean does in polls of people who state they will vote for him, most polls still show him least likely to beat Bush. Kerry still stands as the best chance to beat Bush statistically.

THen there are others like myself, who will vote for anyone but ONE particular candidate. I smply do not like many of the decisions and untyielding positions Denacmade as Governor of Vermont, and no matter what he says whole he is running, will reverse if hecwins. I am disabled. Cannot work, and Dean is remaingin silent on whether Social Securirt Disability will be one of the things that Dean will or will not put on the table for cuts in order to balance the budget.

There are several million people like myself who are VERY aware of Deans silence on this point, and will take no chances of letting him say nothing now, and hope he will not cut. In Vermont as governor, he repeated tried to cut. Lots of organizations that advocate for the disabled and lots of disabled people have not missed this silence on Deans part.

And the sanme goes for other candidates, there are some people who will not vote for ONE particualr candidate if he is the nominee.

When you add all of these NOT VOTES together, the democratic chances of winning in 2004 are exremely slim, if not complewtely non-existant.



An example in Florida, last year in the fall, the Democratic Party in Florida had almost a hundred and fifty thousand more democrats than republicans. And you are not going to buy it no matter what I say, but when Kerry and Lieberman were higher than Dean in the polls, and Graham was still running, this dropped slightly but not significantly, as Dean started rising in the polls, Registered Democrats have started changing their registered status to Republican.

Today, the differential between republicans and democrats has fallen to under 68,000 registered voters, and the rate of people leaving the Democratic Party and becoming Republican is rising every month. By this time next year Florida and a number of other states mostly in the south, will have far larger numbers of Republican Voters than Democrats. Zell Miller was not TOO bad a guy until the figures in Georgia started moving in the republican Direction and it is also happening in South Carolina.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

56. Now wouldn't that be interesting?

I hear the train a comin'
It's rollin' 'round the bend,
And I ain't seen the sunshine,
Since, I don't know when,
I'm stuck in Bushco Prison,
And time keeps draggin' on,
But that train keeps a-rollin',
On down to Wa-shing-ton.

[Fabio]

57. I have it on very good authority

That he will get the endorsement from AFSCME. It's supposedly a done deal. I give a lot of credit to Trippi's aggressive strategy to raise money and profile early. But I still dont understand what Howard Dean has done to earn union endorsements (especially versus some of the other candidates).

Oh well. Good for the dean camp. Congratulations.


It will be a bigger hill to climb for the rest of us.

[KaraokeKarlton]

60. Dean went to bat for Vermont nurses to form a union here in Vermont

He's always been very supportive of unions. And as Clinton said at Harkin's Steak Fry, no one is better on health care than Dean is. I think the biggest thing in Dean's favor is that he's really great at framing issues in a way that people can relate to. He makes it simple for those who hear him talk to understand how the things Bush does affects our day to day lives. He's busted his balls working for this, and he has earned it. He started at dead last and has run a brilliant campaign. I think the fact that he doesn't use speech writers or allow himself to be "handled" is part of the appeal, too. Everything that comes out of Dean's mouth in this campaign is not him repeating someone else's views...it's ALL Dean. That gives him a real authenticity that candidates like Kerry lack. Kerry has people write his speeches and tell him what to say. Everything Dean says comes from his heart...and it's also why sometimes he chooses some of the words and terminology he does. Personally, I prefer knowing that what comes from Dean is really Dean, and not someone behind the scenes. I think this helps him a lot, and the others really struggle when they are not speaking their own words and thoughts. Dean always looks more passionate and comes across as more sincere as a result. That WILL play just as well in the general election.

[Nicholas_J]

61. Only Union related thing he did directly

Only other thing was to set a a weak set of rules that allowed Vermont to begin to outsource jobs to get rid of government workers if the contract would be ten percent cheaper to do by privatizing it (Dean was big on privatizing government jobs, which is oddly enough, something that AFSCME does not approve of). Again, wjhile it may be likely that AFSCME will support Dean, there are a number of oter scenarios that fit in as well, and AFSCME may want the week to make the case that Dean did a great deal to cut Government Workers benefits while governor.

But for some more news:

When asked how much they knew about these five misnamed "front-runners," only one-third of the Democrats polled claimed to know a great deal or a good amount about Lieberman, the best-known of the pack. And his numbers were twice as high as those for General Clark. You think Howard Dean, who leads in New Hampshire polls and is challenging Gephardt in Iowa, has impressed the Democrats around the country? More than half of them said they know nothing or hardly anything about his personal qualities or his positions on issues.

Of course, voters will learn a lot more about these men in the next four months, as the nomination fight moves from cable, print and the Internet and becomes a television story. That's the good news for the Democrats. The bad news is that much of what the voters learn will be negative, as largely unknown candidates try to tear down their opponents in order to gain a narrow plurality victory in the tidal wave of contests that will take place between mid-January and the second Tuesday in March.

You can see the teardown cycle beginning already for Dean. Even in his seemingly advantageous position, he has so little political capital in the bank it will be difficult for him to defend himself. McAuliffe's scheme to shorten the contest may not reduce the bloodletting. It may simply intensify it.

This schedule may be the best possible break for a vulnerable-looking president.

http://www.startribune.com/stories/1519/4193508.html

The DLC ibnternal polls have been VERY consistant since January, the cansistantly show several things. First, that Either Gephardt or Kerry have the most likely chance of beating Bush, as the candidate with the highest level of people who will choose not to vote if a particular candidate is elected is Clark, then Dean.

The lowest levels are for Kerry or Gephardt as well.

The situation of having 9 candidates for democratic nominee is another situation favoring Bush, as the article above notes, weeks between now and march are going to reveal the most negative information about the candidates. Dena with the most unexposed to the public has the most to be exposed. I have seen over 2000 pages of the non clsed record on Dean and there are significant negatives there, mostly on cutting benfits to the disabled and the elderly poor, because in Vermont they were a small voting group. Vermont itself has a relatively low rate of people over 65 compared to Iowa, and the difference in polls in these stated regarding Dean make it a bit obvious that he does not have as much support among the elderly as the young. Iowa has twice the percentage of elderly than Vermont and New Hampshire(Vermont has about 10-12 percent of its population over the age of 65, N.H. about the same). Iowa its 25 percent.

I cant wait until the transcripts of Dean memos start circulating in the next moth or two. It will be most interesting.

If the unions endorse him, the may start having second thoughts when they see some of this stuff. Im keeping my collection private until then.

In Florida, Deans statements about Bob Graham being too old to run for the presidency as he would be in his 70's for a second term is still going over like a lead balloon with Democratic Party groups, as they are composed of a good deal of people over retirement age. They were bitching about it when Dean came here two days ago.

Now K.K. show me something from Deans terms as Governor thatr show he was very supportive of unions.

[Lefty48197]

62. Sweeney runs both

They're really only one big endorsement.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

66. "Only" 3,000,000 people represented.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

[DrFunkenstein]

68. Isn't That What Dean Said About The Flag?

Oops. I think we were supposed to forget that.