Democratic Experts Pick Best Candidate Against Bush

[BrewCrew]

Does anyone read the National Journal? I was a little skeptical few weeks back when top Republicans were saying that Gephardt would be the toughest against, but now that top Democratic strategists are saying it. It's starting to make me think? Personally, I think both either Dean or Gephardt would both give Bush a tough fight.

Its interesting to see that most Dem insiders believe Dean will be the nominee, but that Dick is the strongest against W. It's an interesting read and I just wanted to post it for that.



Gephardt Looks Strongest Against Bush

http://nationaljournal.com/cgi-bin/ifetch4?ENG+NJMAG+7-njmagtoc+1096798-DBSCORE+256+1+1184+F+1+24+1+PD%2f11%2f08%2f2003%2d%3e11%2f08%2f2003 (You have to have a subscription)

For the third week in a row, Howard Dean is the Democrat that his party's experts consider most likely to win the party's nomination. But Dick Gephardt surges past Dean when Democratic Insiders are asked who would be their party's strongest nominee against President Bush

In Week 3 of National Journal's Democratic Insiders Poll, participants were asked not only to predict their party's eventual nominee but also to weigh in on who would be the strongest Democratic challenger. Gephardt was far and away the top choice as the strongest contender against Bush, winning 16 of 42 votes, or 38 percent. (Eight of the 50 Insiders polled are not yet ready to make a call on the "strongest nominee.") Gephardt was followed by Wesley Clark, with nine "strongest" votes, and John Kerry, with five. Although 36 of 50 Democratic Insiders rated Dean as the candidate most likely to win the nomination, the former Vermont governor received only four votes as the strongest general-election candidate. That put him in a three-way tie with John Edwards and Joe Lieberman, who also received four each. Insiders Verbatim On Gephardt: "He's been around the block in national elections and knows how to avoid the land mines." "Goes well to the middle and has good geography." "Working-class white guys do not dislike Gephardt the way they would inevitably dislike Dean, regardless of how much he talks about the NRA." "His message -- the Clinton economic policies, plus tougher trade measures -- may have finally found its day." On Dean: "The qualities that make him the front-runner in the primary -- unequivocal opposition to the war and anger at the status quo -- would be his downfall in a general election." "Dean is stronger than all too many think, but hot temperament and arrogance could take him down."

Democratic Insiders Poll, Week 3, 11/8/03
WHO WILL BE THE NOMINEE?
1. Howard Dean Points: 432 (36 first-place votes) Previous Week: 1 437 (38) He didn't look presidential playing capture the Confederate flag. "Now it's Dean's turn to clarify his position on the war -- the Civil War," jabbed one Insider. Another remarked: "Last week too liberal for the South, this week too racist! Would everybody pick a story and stick to it?"

2. Dick Gephardt Points: 398 (11) Previous Week: 2 394 (9) All signals are go, but the Missourian is still dogged by doubts that he'll have the money to take advantage of recent momentum. "Will anti-Dean donors be willing to coalesce around him, or will they look elsewhere?" wondered one Insider. "Follow the money on this one."


3. John Kerry Points: 328 (0) Previous Week: 3 327 (0) Holding steady, but Insiders want to see movement. "He can shoot pheasant, but can he give his campaign a much-needed shot in the arm?" asked one. "Still in search of a new rationale since 'I'm going to win' disappeared," said another.


4.Wesley Clark Points: 305 (1) Previous Week: 4 302 (1) The general may be gunning to take on Bush, but the primaries come first. "I still think Clark is the best general-election candidate, but the question is whether his campaign will ever get out of the gate," one Insider commented.


5. John Edwards Points: 266 (2) Previous Week: 5 263 (2) Showing vigor on the stump. "This guy currently works the hardest of any of the candidates who visit New Hampshire," an Insider said. "Feels like he's got the staying power to fight it out as long as the voters will let him," said another.

6. Joe Lieberman Points: 213 (0) Previous Week: 6 216 (0) He's standing by his story, but that may the problem. "Has consistency in message in face of a lukewarm primary reception," said one Insider. His "novel I-have-integrity-on-the-issues-you-hate campaign still to gain traction," remarked another.



7. Dennis Kucinich Points: 118 (0) Previous Week: 7 115 (0) One of his problems is, there's only room for one anti-war insurgent in this race. "He missed the train that Dean is riding," observed one Insider.


8. Al Sharpton Previous Week: 8 111 (0) Humor is his best medicine. "Quickest wit will produce some votes," said one Insider. "Is hosting Saturday Night Live, so I'm joining the Sharpton boomlet," said another.

9. Carol Moseley Braun Points: 81 (0) Previous Week: 9 85 (0) "Will she withdraw and endorse someone else before Iowa and try to position herself as a player who has relevance?" asked one Insider. -- James A. Barnes and Charles Mahtesian


METHODOLOGY: The participants in this poll were selected by National Journal because of their campaign experience, insider knowledge, and ties to key Democratic voting blocs or to key states. Participants rank the nine announced Democratic presidential candidates from 1 to 9 -- assigning 9 points to the contender who has the best chance of eventually winning the party's nomination, 8 to the candidate with the second-best chance, and on down to 1 for the least-promising contender. The candidate with the highest point total wins first place for the week, followed by the competitor with the second-highest total. Only active, declared Democratic presidential candidates are eligible to receive votes. The votes of 50 of the people in our pool of Insiders are counted each week. A handful of Democratic Insiders are actively advising -- or have endorsed -- a 2004 White House contender.


LIST OF INSIDERS ASKED (candidate affiliation or endorsement, if any): Tina Abbott, Tammy Baldwin, Dave Beattie, Mike Berman, Ed Bruley, George Bruno (Clark), Deb Callahan, Joseph Cari Jr., Bill Carrick (Gephardt), James Clyburn, Tony Coelho, Miguel Contreras, Chet Culver, Rosa DeLauro (Lieberman), Tad Devine (Kerry), Anita Dunn, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio (Gephardt), Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Marcia Hale (Dean), Laura Hartigan, Alexis Herman, Harold Ickes, Steve Jarding, Gale Kaufman, Celinda Lake, Bill Lynch (Sharpton), Ellen Malcolm, Bob Matsui (Gephardt), Caroline McCarley (Edwards), Gerald McEntee, Mark Mellman (Kerry), Richard Myers (Dean), David Nassar, Tom Nides (Lieberman), John Podesta, David Price (Edwards), Bruce Reed, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Bob Slagle, Doug Sosnik, Karl Struble, Jeff Trammell, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. The 'experts' think Gephardt would be the strongest candidate?

If these are the 'experts' of our party, no wonder we don't have the House, Senate, or the Presidency...

[pruner]

2. for once you and I agree

let's :party: since this will likely never happen again.

:toast:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. I bet we'd agree on a lot more than you think

if we weren't always arguing Kerry vs Dean.

:toast:

[pruner]

6. I'd bet you're right

I was just kidding.

:beer:

[On the Road]

4. Agreed.

They should not be comparing resumes, but leadership qualities.

[Pez]

15. weirder still since kerry consistantly polls the best against bush

meow meow meow

[Speck Tater]

5. The problem with "insiders" is...

... the more "inside" they are, the more out of touch they become with reality.

Insiders have social contact mostly with other insiders and it forms a self-feeding network of opinions that is pretty much a closed system with respect to input and opinions from outside that closed group.

Like fundamentalists whose only social contact is with other fundamentalists, they begin to mistakenly believe that the opinions of "everybody" are well represented by the opinions of their closest friends and associates. However, their inner circle does not contain, nor does it represent a valid cross section of the American public, and so their conclusions are inevitably distorted by that faulty perspective and their failure to even recognize that they have, indeed, lost touch with the larger reality that is the world outside their inner circle.

[Liberal Veteran]

8. I was just about to type the same thing....

I agree wholeheartedly. We need less of these so-called "insiders" telling us what we should think. Our insiders have been doing an abyssmal job lately. I was surprised that Terry McAuliffe wasn't in that list of names since he is about out of touch with the masses as possible. Of course he is not supposed to endorse a candidate being the DNC chairman, but this sounds like his kind of opinion.

And of course you are correct about insiders. It's why Gephart has managed to snag so many union endorsements. He is well connected because he is an insider himself.

[loyalsister]

17. Not just that

They don't get a sense of the "Elvis" factor. When they focus on the candidate strictly on a personal level they disregard the importance of mass public appeal. Gephardt is probably the least charismatic of all the candidates. His personality is boring. His speech quality is monotone. He can't pull off a very convincing passionate speech.
Whether we like it or not, charisma matters. While he may have great personal relationships with insiders, Gep does not have the ability to truly excite voters.

[el_gato]

7. so much for the experts

[helleborient]

9. Thanks for the post...

It is an interesting and worthwhile read whether you agree with it or not.

Thanks!

[mmonk]

10. When have the "experts" been right?

[Upfront]

11. That explains

why we have been getting our butt kicked. Screw um. Go Dean!

[kwolf68]

12. Good stuff

While I am still a Kerry supporter, both John Edwards and Wes Clark are moving up on my list.

For those who say Clark is a johnnie-come-lately on his Democratic values, I must admit he has a sound view on them and I believe he has given them some thought.

Like Clark, Edwards is still a bit of an unknown, but there is something about him I like. He has taken strong votes in the Senate that I respect and while he hasn't built the reputation that Kerry has, I think given the time he could.

My problem with Edwards is if we don't win in 04 and he's not at least VP, then what does he do while Chimp finishes us off? Edwards needs to keep his name on the map...

I envision a Gore, Edwards, Feingold fight-off in '08...but if JE vanishes for 4 years then he won't last.

[AWD]

13. Now I'm waiting...

...for people to complain why USC didn't make the list. They only have one loss and they're playing the best football right now.

Just kidding, Trojan fans.

[ThirdWheelLegend]

14. insiders?

On Kucinich:

"One of his problems is, there's only room for one anti-war insurgent in this race. "He missed the train that Dean is riding," observed one Insider."

????????????

Kucinich conducts the train. Dean is more of a stowaway.

:)

TWL

[Il_Coniglietto]

16. I was just thinking that

How could DK have missed the train when he was one of the very first people on it? More like the media missed his train because it wasn't "cool" enough at the time. Now there's a slightly similar, but flashier train that's yet again taking the attention off him. Bah!

[sandnsea]

18. He's Jesse James

Dean held up the train, robbed it of all its integrity and is willing to let it plow off a cliff for his own glory.

I'm not a Kucinich supporter for my own reasons, but I can clearly see he IS what Dean pretends to be.