Union Membership Numbers for Gephardt, Dean, Kerry

[tsipple]

Today's AP story about the national UAW witholding its endorsement during the Democratic primaries contained some interesting data on the sizes of unions that have endorsed the various Democratic candidates.

Now, there's nothing to assume that union members will necessarily vote the way their leadership recommends, much less volunteer, but it is interesting to see what they've done.

Dick Gephardt, according to the AP, has the support of the leaders of 20 unions, including the Teamsters, United Food and Commercial Workers, and the Laborers International Union of North America. Combined membership is about 5 million.

Howard Dean may have endorsements from the SEIU and AFSCME, the two largest AFL-CIO unions. These unions together have 3.1 million members. Unions which have announced endorsements for Dean include the California Teachers Association (335,000 members), International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (140,000 members), and the Vermont Teachers Association (10,000 members). That puts Dean's possible total at approximately 3.6 million.

John Kerry has the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Fighters and the Utility Workers Union of America for a total of 0.3 million members.

Dennis Kucinich has received endorsements from a couple union locals representing under 0.1 million members.

Did I miss anyone here? Any inaccuracies? (Thanks.)

Analysis: Richard Gephardt certainly has the lead in national union endorsements. The AFL-CIO won't have a two thirds majority to endorse a candidate in the primaries, so the 20 unions endorsing Gephardt have agreed to work together. This team does help provide volunteers and support. Howard Dean has the recent momentum, and the unions endorsing him are well known for their top notch organizing skills. These union endorsements also help broaden Dean's base demographically. John Kerry has been frustrated in his attempts to woo big union endorsements. ALPA, the Air Line Pilots Association, was previously leaning to Kerry, but it remains to be seen whether they endorse. The Fire Fighters is a good consolation prize, though.

(On edit: Added Utility Workers Union of America to Kerry's total.)

[jenk]

1. when we pick 1 candidate

will all the unions line up behind him?

[Upfront]

2. Yes

[Lefty48197]

3. Yes

.

[Gman]

7. Everybody except the Carpenters, the Teamsters

and probably a few UAW locals and Steel Workers locals.

[blm]

4. Utility Workers endorsed Kerry

and one of the Chicago Teamsters union broke from national and endorsed Kerry.

Post 9-11, and with Bush running on 9-11, the Fire Fighters is THEE power endorsement that breaks Bush's back on that issue.

[onebigbadwulf]

5. I can hear

his bones breaking now... the sweet smell of marrow :pals:

[tsipple]

6. Thank You for That

The Utility Workers Union of America has approximately 50,000 members. But my count of 0.3 million for Kerry doesn't change, since I round to the nearest tenth of a million members.

By the way, the UWUA needs a web designer desperately. :-) It was really difficult to get information there.

[cindyw]

8. The MTA has 98,000 members.

Massachusetts Teachers Association.

[tsipple]

9. Darn!

Thank you again. I knew I forgot something. (I had this nagging feeling.)

OK, Massachusetts Teachers Association for Kerry. He has 0.4 million union members -- their leadership -- endorsing him for the primaries.

[DemBones DemBones]

10. I don't think it's appropriate to include union endorsements that

a candidate MAY get but has not gotten yet, except as a footnote. You included two possible endorsements for Dean as having a combined membership of 3.1 million. Then you listed the much smaller endorsements he has actually gotten and concluded by saying:

"That puts Dean's possible total at approximately 3.6 million."

Anyone who didn't read carefully would look at the bolded figures by each candidate's name and conclude that Dean now has union endorsements amounting to 3.6 million members. A reader could easily interpret the qualifier "possible" that you included as referring to the fact that we can't count on union members to vote their union's endorsement 100%.

But when we subtract the 3.1 million members of the unions that will possibly endorse Dean, we see that Dean's actual endorsements to date amount to only 0.5 million members, far behind Gephardt's 5 million, and not that far ahead of Kerry's 0.4 million or Kucinich's 0.1 million.

You should correct this inaccuracy, showing the 0.5 million members of unions that have actually endorsed Dean. It's very misleading as it stands.

Chickens shouldn't be counted before they hatch.

On Edit: Corrected Kerry's total, which you listed as 0.3 million but were then shown by another DUer that it is actually 0.4 million.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

11. Chickens shouldn't be counted before they hatch

Very true

Deanites should just wait and see....

I would love to see those two union groups just sit on thier hands until the convention

[LuminousX]

12. Dude, it's a done deal, just not official yet

The unions aren't going to suddenly change. If they do, come back here and yell. Otherwise, this is the reality of it.

[DemBones DemBones]

13. It's like claiming to be married before the wedding.

Weddings do get canceled at the last minute. Dean does not have the endorsements yet so it's inaccurate to include them. The poster asked that inaccuracies be pointed out.

[SonofRage]

14. it's already official

they just haven't had the "official announcement" yet. From the SEIU website:

"During this meeting, the Board reviewed a large amount of information: candidate positions, national and local polls and surveys of members and leaders, straw votes conducted by dozens of locals, verbal and written feedback from members. And Howard Dean himself met with us and answered questions from the board.

"We have reached a decision, and we are hopeful that there are other unions who share our members’ excitement for Dr. Dean’s candidacy."

[DrFunkenstein]

15. Dean Has Both

It's a done deal on both.

[DemBones DemBones]

16. How can it be official before the official announcement is made?

That contradicts the meaning of the word "official."

The chick may indeed be pecking its way out of the shell but the hatching process could be aborted by the chick being killed while half-hatched.

No, I'm not suggesting Dean could be killed, only thinking about what the old saying actually means. Why are we advised not to count our chickens before they're hatched? Because some eggs never hatch, because some eggs are eaten by rats, snakes, birds, or perhaps thieving hobos or egg-sucking dogs! Probably it's supposed to mean more than that, though, and advise not counting on the eggs being brooded all becoming productive hens, either as egg-layers or as meat, because some chicks won't survive to adulthood, plus some will be roosters instead of hens, who obviously won't lay eggs and are only good meat when eaten while young, thus not providing much meat.

Perhaps a better adage would be "There's many a slip, Twixt the cup and the lip." Or, in bumper sticker terms, "Shit happens."

[w4rma]

17. It's all over but the crying (and the ceremony). (n/t)