South Dakotans like both Daschle, Bush (new poll data, very interesting)

[goobergunch]

<snip>

The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted Friday through Sunday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points.

The survey also paired possible opponents in the 2004 election. Results include:

• Daschle leads former Rep. John Thune 50 percent to 44 percent. That compares with a 48-46 margin three months ago, but both results are within the margin of error. Thune, who was defeated by Sen. Tim Johnson last year, is thought to be the leading Republican candidate in the Senate race but has not said he will run.

• In the House race, Democrat Stephanie Herseth leads incumbent Rep. Bill Janklow, a Republican, by a 57 to 29 percent margin. Herseth was defeated by Janklow in last year's election but has said she will seek the seat again. Janklow's approval ratings have plummeted since a fatal traffic accident which led him to be charged with felony manslaughter.

• There has been speculation that Thune would try to return to the House rather than run against Daschle. In a hypothetical match-up, Thune leads Herseth 47 to 40 percent.

more...http://www.argusleader.com/news/Fridayarticle1.shtml

These are positive signs for 2004.

[MIScott87]

1. 50-44... Within MoE?

6 points seems like a big margin of error.

[dsc]

2. that is a3% MOE

The 50 could be as low as 47 and the 44 as high as 47. MOE work both ways not just one way.

[CMT]

3. Janklow won't run

I'd prefer for Thune to run for House than for Senate, becuz I think he is the only GOPer with the potential to defeat Daschle. However, if he just stays retired I think there is a good shot that Herseth could win--and this would be a pick up for Democrats in the house--you're right this is one to watch.

[genius]

4. Daschle regularly supports Bush.

So this is not surprising. It would be nice if we appointed a new minority leader as it is doubtful we'll re-take the Senate.

[nator311]

5. Thune

I doubt that he'll run for the house or senate seat. He's currently working as a lobbyist, which can pay millions. Seeing that he has a young family, he'd probably want to stick with this financial security.

[mndemocrat_29]

6. I expect that Thune wants to stay in the Lobbying industry

He's making loads of cash and probably wants to build on that before making another swing at electoral politics.

Therefore, a state legislator will probably run against both Daschle and Herseth. The only person who could feasibly stop either of them is Thune, so if he's in one of the races it's a tossup, but otherwise I'd say both of them lean Democratic. Should Herseth win, she'll be much stronger for 2006 (should Thune decide then that he want to return) and she'd probably be considered heir apparent for a 2010 Senate run (Daschle will likely retire).