Portland Oregonian: Why Dean can win next November

[CMT]

"Let us not be fooled by misguided conventional wisdom. Dean is a threat and Republicans better not ignore him."

This is the considered judgement of two respected Republican pollsters--Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser.

"Howard Dean can win because he believes in what he is saying, because he can semi-legitmately spin his record as governor into one of fiscal conservatism, and because he comes across as if he actually cares about people...The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democratic candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to people in the middle."

Won't Republicans paint him as a hopeless "left-winger"? The prospect makes many Republicans giddy and democrats fret about Dean's electability jittery. Moore and Kaiser counter with a parallel that will likely fluster Republicans and democrats: "Dean's appeal is closer to Ronald Reagan's than any other Democrat running today... The Democratic party used to chuckle about Reagan and his gaffes...but when his opponents tried to attack him for his more outlandish statements, the folks in the middle simply ignored them. Voters...looked to the bigger picture, where they saw aman of conviction who cared about them and had solutions for their problems."

It is true that Democrats in 1980 wanted Reagan more than any other candidate and in 1992 Republicans were convinced that Clinton would be the easiest to beat. I hate the Reagan comparison, but I will add one other thing that Dean has that Reagan also had--a simple message and he doesn't talk down to people. People know these fundamental things about Dean--1) he is against the war 2) he wants to provide universal health care 3) he attacks Bush with relish.

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/david_reinhard/index.ssf?/base/editorial/106829671744920.xml