Did Kerry peak too soon?

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

While watching a story on MSNBC on Kerry firing Jordan, it occured to me that when Dean surged after quarter one, when people gleefully claimed that Dean had peaked too soon, Kerry was the frontrunner, and the expected winner. Was that Kerry's only peak? Is he not the frontrunner now because HE is the one who peaked too soon, and Dean is peaking at a more opportune time?

Aug. 18, 2003 -- NPR's Renee Montagne spoke with Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts as part of an ongoing Morning Edition series of interviews with each of the announced candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. Below, NPR Political Editor Ken Rudin provides background on the Kerry candidacy.


Once upon a time -- way, way back in April or May of 2003 -- there was a general feeling among more than a few political observers that John Forbes Kerry was the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for president. "Frontrunner," of course, is a word that is used too liberally, and sometimes foolishly, by journalists and analysts. And it's especially pointless to use the word at a time when anyone has yet to cast a vote. But between his well-oiled fundraising machine, impressive staff hires, and organization in the key early states -- not to mention his status as a decorated war veteran -- the feeling was that the Massachusetts senator was the candidate to beat for the right to take on President Bush in 2004.

Then came the Howard Dean phenomenon, in which the former governor of Vermont took in more money than any other candidate -- and more than expected -- in the second quarter of 2003. His supporters, always among the campaign's more enthusiastic, seemed to take the Internet by storm. The rise of Dean came as Kerry was recovering from prostate cancer surgery. Before you knew it, Dean seemed to be the only candidate anyone wanted to talk about.

http://www.npr.org/programs/specials/democrats2004/kerry.html

[LuminousX]

1. I never thought about it

With all the focus on Dean, wondering if he peaked and waiting for him to fall flat on his face, I never thought that Kerry peaked way at the beginning and never returned to the top.

I think he, too, was waiting for Dean to fall flat on his face. That still might happen, but each day makes it less-and-less likely.

[killbotfactory]

2. He hadn't even started campaigning,,,,

Wait for him to officially announce...
marathon not a sprint...

uh... uhh....

Dean is a poopiehead.

[polpilot]

27. Kerry DID peak too soon...about 1983-84.

Dean '04...

[blm]

3. Media pushes for Dean and gave him teflon and no closer scrutiny.

After the primary they'll switch back to Bush....and the scrutiny of Dean will be forthcoming.

[LuminousX]

4. different era

We've learned from the mistakes of the Gore campaign.

Our nominee, Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lierberman, et.al will be protected by the hordes of us who will not allow the press to malign him.

I still stand by my original comments that Kerry needs to change his tactics against Dean if he wants to regain his 'rightful' position. I don't think he needs to igore Dean, only act as if Dean is a naive child on the political stage. Everytime Dean needs to moderate an opinion, or clarify, or backtrack, Kerry shouldn't 'slam' him for it, only remark that that is what you can expect from a candidate who hasn't been on the national stage like Kerry has been ever since the Vietnam war. Comment that these are the typical gaffes of an inexperienced politician and point to how an organized GOP attack machine will turn this gaffes and faux pas's into brutal personality failings.

Kerry should turn all his rhetorical prowess to focus on Bush. Act like he already has the nomination in his speeches and show America a preview of what it will be like when he gets the nomination. Kerry shouldn't run against Dean at all. It gives Dean too much credibility. 'Dean who?' should be his response when questioned about Howard. Or maybe accidently mix up John Dean and Howard Dean once or twice. "I'm sorry, I didn't realize John Dean was runn.. oh, you mean the guy from Vermont." Okay, it is too late to do that, but you get the idea. Marginalize Dean. Use the influence he has in the party to create the image of already being the nominee, hell, already being the President.

If at all possible he should attempt to schedule a little photo-op with a visiting foreign dignatary. Let the press know that the meeting was to fulfil Kerry's curiosity and to answer a few questions he had regarding some issue with that country.

[NWHarkness]

5. Oh, yeah

There's a winning strategy. We all know that the American people, more than anything else, are looking for a Washington insider who promises more of the same old same old. That'll work like a charm.

[JohnKleeb]

6. Al Gore was a DC insider

As was Gene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy when they ran as were many. :shurg: whats wrong with supporting a senator? I dont support Kerry but my reason not supporting him has nothing to do with him being Senator Kerry.

[blm]

12. You want an outsider who treats the left like Zell Miller?

What difference does it make insider or outsider when your record shows you wouldn't even LISTEN to the left and progressive Democrats when you governed?

YOU and many buy the unscrutinized Dean with the media granted teflon.

I don't trust him. I think he'll pull the whole party down.

[helleborient]

14. I sure wish references were provided with inflammatory comments...

like this.

[Padraig18]

21. References? Pfffft!

If they had references, they couldn't qualify as content-free bashing...

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

8. Kerry could have used that advice

a few months ago. I'm interested to see how his campaign changes now that Jordan is gone.

[helleborient]

9. Yes, this is what I expect to see from Kerry...

But instead I feel like we get jet-skis, motorcycles, pheasant hunting and comments like polling 15 points better than Hillary Clinton in the middle of debates.

These things don't seem like the image of a Sr. Senator with 30 years of experience being a statesman.

[sandnsea]

10. Yes and no

Well, I think he tried that over the summer and what happened is that Dean was allowed to create a campaign on his supposed views that simply weren't true. Now those things are set in stone and I don't know how else to get people to know that fact except to talk about it.

I do, however, agree that Kerry should run more as the leader of the country and inspire people to see how great this country, and the world, would be if he were President. Because we would really set out on a totally new path with John Kerry as President and that's what I want for my children and grandchildren. We want more in 2004 and John Kerry can get the job done!

[helleborient]

13. I know I'll regret this, but...

Views that simply weren't true?

Whose?

Dean's? Kerry's?

And what's set in stone?

[sandnsea]

23. let's not pretend

It's been gone over and over on this board. You must know about all of Howard's waffles. The man has to carry his own syrup for chrissake. He's lucky there's alot of it, and good tasting, in Vermont.

[LuminousX]

17. the problem this summer was he ignored Dean

He didn't need to attack Dean, but do as I said... point out the inconsistencies, not as an attack but as a demonstration Dean hadn't 'ripened' enough for the national stage.

I'm eagerly awaiting to see what a new campaign manager will bring to the table.

[sandnsea]

24. We don't need on the job training?

He did, it didn't work.

[LuminousX]

26. He didn't use it effectively, like in response to gaffes

Whenever Dean made the news for 'foot in mouth' disease, that is when Kerry should have been pointing this out because that is when the press is listening.

If he would have made it a constant theme it would have stuck. It won't now. Dean gets a pass on it.

[killbotfactory]

7. Dean's not teflon, he's rubber.

All the attacks bounce of him and hurt the ones attacking.

The media has tried, and failed, to squash Dean's campaign. Now they are coming to terms with it.

Unless you call harping on the MTP interview, confed flag, being "even-handed" to the israel/palestine situation, being "anti-war", or "too liberal to be elected" positive coverage.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. Wouldn't want to disturb the fantasy world, now would ya?

You listed 5 majorly negative Dean stories....quick, name 5 big Kerry flaps...

[LuminousX]

25. Wow. Good point

I can't name any Kerry gaffes that he had to weather. Dean has had the media throwing negative stuff at him since day one.

[killbotfactory]

28. Kerry made a regime change comment that pissed some people off

total non-issue.

And some people aren't very impressed with his justification of the war vote.

That's all I can think of.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

29. And there you have it.

The "Dean is the media darling" memo is patent bullshit.

[Egnever]

30. Wow!

[Pez]

15. ask bill bradley how fickle NH voters are

much to a lot of peoples' dismay, this ain't over til it's over.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

16. Aye, only time will tell

But it hadn't occured to me before today that Kerry had been the frontrunner some time ago. His campaign changes may help bring him back, but he'll have to fight tooth and nail to gain polling points, especially in NH where he needs them the most.

[MaineDem]

18. Check out Bradley vs. Gore numbers from 2000

At this same point in the campaign, at least for NH, how far behind was Gore?

I was told (haven't looked it up yet) that Gore was further behind than Kerry is now. A lot can happen between now and July.

[helleborient]

19. I just checked...

According to Gallup November 1, 1999 - Bill Bradley led Al Gore 48%-46% in New Hampshire

Gore was nowhere close to as far behind as Kerry.

[helleborient]

20. Another poll...

The New Hampshire poll November 11, 1999 had Gore leading Bradley 46% to 40%.

[helleborient]

22. And one more...

A Newsweek poll November 4-5, 1999 shows Gore leading Bradley 46% to 36%

Bill Bradley was definitely in trouble, it seems, by November of 1999. That was also when the primary was still in February. It's earlier this year. Kerry has 80 days to catch up.