Who would win if the pack was cut by a 3rd?

[TheReligiousLeft]

Say these are the candidates left (per Newsweek they are the top 6 right now).

Howard Dean 16
Wesley Clark 15
Dick Gephardt 9
Joe Lieberman 8
John Kerry 7
Carol Moseley Braun 7

How would things fall out?

I think Wesley Clark and maybe Lieberman would pick up Edward's voters, CMB would get Sharptons and Dick and Howard would split Dennis'. Does that sound right to you? I think, if I'm right, that would makes
That would mean the new order would be...
Wesley Clark 20
Howard Dean 17
Carol Moseley Braun 11
Dick Gephardt 10
Joe Lieberman 10
John Kerry 7
Yikes, I just donated 15 bucks to Kerry's camp today 12 to Dean and 5 to DU... I think I may be backing the wrong horse, maybe even the wrong horses.

[TheReligiousLeft]

1. Oops, Horses refering to Dean and Kerry

Not the Democratic Underground. It is the right horse... more specifically the "left" horse!

[DemDogs]

2. Based on national poll = useless

Lieberman has no chance to get this nomination. Braun and Kerry even? This is all you need to know about how silly national polls are. By the way, no one is getting Edwards' voters. He is in the full run.

[Toucano]

3. I don't mind if they all drop out! LOL

Save one, of course! ;)

[paulk]

4. I wouldn't base any calculations on this poll

this poll is useless. 6 pt. MOE.

I do think that with so many candidates it's impossible to handicap this race. When the "leader" in a national poll can't break 20%, it means there's no real leader.

[mndemocrat_29]

5. I think that Edwards votes would go to Kerry

I say this as a Kerry supporter, who's second choice for the nomination is Edwards. I have a feeling that this a sentiment shared by many other Kerry-Edwards supporters.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Cutting up the pie.

First let's look at which candidates will start bleeding supporters soon under what circumstances.

Gephardt has to win in Iowa, if he loses there he is in a tail spin. Kerry has to win in NH, if he loses there (and in Iowa), he is in a tail spin. Dean has to win one of those states, or he will start deflating. Because Lieberman and Clark are not competing in Iowa, runner ups there are of little significance, except perhaps in Kerry's case where coming in less than third will weaken him further heading into NH.

Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman all claim to have strength outside of the "liberal" North East, particularly in the South, so they can potentially remain quite viable heading out of NH even without wins in either Iowa or New Hampshire. So can Gephardt perhaps if he comes very close in Iowa and comes in a strong third in NH. A big loss in Iowa or 4th or less in NH after a narrow loss in Iowa pretty much knocks him out. I suppose if Kerry comes in a close third in Iowa and a very close second in NH he still would have some chance left in a croweded field, but Clark and Edwards will do better in the South so I think Kerry would be out even in that scenario.

Third place in NH is shaping up to be very big. If Lieberman can't pull third in a neighboring state (NH), he is out. Most definately so if either Clark or Edwards comes in ahead of Lieberman in NH. If a southerner beats Lieberman in New England, there is every reason to believe he or they will continue to beat him as the race moves to the South.

There will be no more than 3 or 4 viable candidates after NH and perhaps no more than two. Only Dean has a near lock on remaining viable. Of the candidates who will "fall out of contention", I don't think Sharpton or Braun will drop out or lose their supporters that quickly. They are not really running to win, and everyone basically knows that. They are advancing political agendas, ensuring diversity in the national debates, and strengthening their own political clout and careers through enhanced visibility.

They will both at least head into the south where black Democrats are numerous and important. Sharpton supporters won't go to Braun or vice versa. They might however move on to a candidate who has a chance of winning. After South Carolina it is possible that Sharpton might try to play king maker and "throw" his support to someone. The most likely scenario under which that would occur is if either Clark or Edwards comes in 3rd in NH and 1st in S. Carolina, leaving them as viable alternatives to Dean. Sharpton doesn't seem warm and fuzzy about Dean although at some point he would back him to be on the winning side if necessary. Sharpton does seem to respect Clark, so if there is an early Sharpton endorsement for anyone as early as post SC, it most likely would be for Clark under the above scenario, otherwise Sharpton definately stays in, which I think is most likely, a la Jessie Clark.

I don't think Lieberman will come in third in NH. As a result I think his support goes mainly to Clark, some to Gephardt, some to Edwards, depending on who is still in play asssuming either is. Clark supporters would splinter all over the map if he quickly fell out of contention, but I don't see that happening. I think Clark will finish 3rd, and just maybe second, in NH (if Kerry starts to implode). If he comes in 2nd, 3rd, or a close 4th, Clark remains viable because of his appeal outside New England, specific strength in S. Carolina, and his grass roots army of supporters. I think Edwards has to out poll Clark in NH to remain viable. He's been in the race a lot longer, been campaigning there for a long time and that should have given him an advantage. If it doesn't, Edwards is leaking heading into SC where Clark is already leading him.

I think Clark is best positioned to challange Dean after NH, partially because he will draw significant support from the followers of any candidate who falls out of the race, for the same reason why his supporters would splinter if Clark fell out. Even now Clark wins some converts from the Dean camp at the very same time as he wins some from someone like Lieberman. Clark actually is the Democratic Party's best unity candidate in my opinion. He hasn't alienated the supporters of any of the other candidates because he has been scrupulous about not attacking them. He might have trouble winning some of Dennis' votes I suppose.