Has Dean wrapped it up?

[stopbush]

I know it's early, BUT - it looks to me like Dean has pretty much wrapped this thing up. Big union endorsements, incredible fund-raising, even more incredible connection to the anger that is motivating Dems, and his non-stop attacks on just about every idiotic, anti-American move made by the radical right. His closest challengers - Gephardt & Kerry - are having major problems with their campaigns. Worse, they just don't seem to be connecting with the rank-n-file Dems.

No matter where we Dems part company with Dr Dean (as I do on guns), I get that most of us feel that we part company with all the candidates on an issue-by-issue basis. The one issue that unites us is our opposition to this illegal war, and Dean has no equivocation on that point. Face it, if everything in Iraq had gone swimmingly, Dean would be toast at this point (and not because of repukes...his fellow Dems would have done him in).

Dean's the man. It's going to take a major, MAJOR FU on his part to lose this nomination.

[chimpymustgo]

1. How old are you, stopbush? Seriously. Dean's got mo' but this is soo early

Anything can happen. Absolutely anything.

[stopbush]

4. Yeah, I'm 49, and my first prez vote went for McGovern in '72.

Why do you ask?

[chimpymustgo]

9. Just seemed a tad naive. Hey, you're older than I am!

The only people who seem to be declaring this one over are under 25, or have an R beside their name.

I know you Deanies are very excited right now. Enjoy it. But the Fat Lady isn't even gargling yet.

[stopbush]

15. I don't yet consider myself a Deanie.

I'm following all of the campaigns as closely as I can. I'd vote for anyone over bush. But I've been around a while, and Dean has created a buzz about himself that has escaped the others. He's certainly elicited more passion from Dems that Al Gore did in 2000.

But the biggest thing about Dean is that he is defining how this campaign will be run. His meme that small contributors are building his campaign runs against the bs as usual of most campaigns that are funded by big special interests. He has also handled most controversies very well. Frankly, I'm surprised the Confederate flag issue died so quickly, not to mention that the stink of the thing ended up hurting Edwards more than Dean.

You know, if I had my druthers in a perfect world, we'd repeal the 23rd(?) amendment and run Bill again. Can't do that, so I'd support the baggage-laden Hillary in a heartbeat. That won't happen in '04 either. Can't back Holy Joe; Al, DK, CMB are interesting but haven't a snowball's chance; Gephardt is old news, Edwards should look to 2012, Clark is VP material...and Kerry is looking worse every day.

I also think that many of Dean's perceived negatives are balanced when he puts the military vet Clark on the ticket. And, I think Clark would accept the position as VP where vet Kerry wouldn't (not that Dean would ask him).

Sure, it ain't over til it's over, but...see my initial post.

[FrenchieCat]

22. I think it is telling when

Clark has to be on the ticket for the ticket to look better.

[Pez]

37. moohahah

kerry and clark are the only two that can stand on their own... while i like some of the other candidates, they aren't as powerful as individuals as kerry and clark are-- and that's because most of the you.s. (the people who don't hang out online all effing day, and who aren't all dems) want someone who can face the chimp with serious foreign policy credentials. kerry and clark would pulverize BUSH INC back to the stone age; and by looking at their "policies", BUSH INC would be happy there.

kerry and clark ownage, 2k4.

[eissa]

2. I hope so, but...

..it's still early, as you mentioned. A year is like a lifetime in politics; anything could happen. As another DUer pointed out, Clinton lost both Iowa and NH and went on to win the nomination. I'm working hard to make sure Dean gets it, but it's certainly not a sure-thing.....yet :D

[MoonAndSun]

3. This will be wrapped up when the nominee is picked in the

primaries, and not before. I am a Dean fan, but it would be arrogant and stupid for the campaign to say he has it wrapped up

[stopbush]

5. I didn't ask the Dean campaign to jump the gun and declare

victory. I'm asking DUers what they think.

[AP]

6. I think I heard that the membership of the two unions endorsing Dean

is 1.5 million. Gephardt has the endorsement of unions with membership of 5 million.

I think that's what they said on NewsHour.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

8. AP..you BE correct.... Dean lags Gephardt in union votes

by over 1 million if Dean gets the other two union and if does not..it could became a nice free-for-all.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

11. It's actually 3 Million (AFSCME, SEIU, IUPAT) combined

But you're right, Gep has a LOT of union support, when you total the membership numbers.

AFSCME and SEIU are 2 key ones, though, extremely active, especially AFSCME in Iowa. They are going to make a difference for Dean. Plus there's the whole momentum/perception thing...

And yet as another poster pointed out, in national polls none of the Dems have yet to poll higher that "Don't Know". We're edging out of the "way too early" stage, but we're still there.

[tsipple]

24. Dean's Union Endorsements: 3.5+ Million Members

Not bad. Not bad at all.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

35. Yeah vs the other 7 candidates..still lags behind Gephardt

Yes Dr. Dean is doing well with the union. But not to bash him...wait to see by super Tuesday who is the front-runner.

[jumptheshadow]

7. No

In fact, the entire primary hasn't even hit the radar screen yet with many Democrats.

[KittyWampus]

10. Dean's Running A Good Race

Don't get too overconfident too soon though! :)

[Padraig18]

12. Dean's clearly the front runner; that said...

... it's far too early to declare victory. However, I think it could fairly be said that the race is Dean's to lose, at this point.

[poskonig]

13. Watch *Gephardt*

Everybody has been talking about Kerry and Clark, but I've been saying for months that Gephardt can win this thing provided he wins in Iowa. His numbers there look auspicious lately. If Gephardt did win Iowa, he'd get 50 million in free airtime and would become the establishment's "stop-Dean" candidate.

[drfemoe]

16. I would have considered

voting for Gep .. until he set up a web site just to misrepresent Dean's soundbites.

That strikes me as pretty ineffectual and short-sited... not what I'm shopping for.

[sandnsea]

14. Gephardt's winning Iowa, Clark/Edwards in SC

Tough Kerry/Dean fight in NH. This is FAR from over.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

The rat race has truly just beginning for all

With Dean with "solid" lead in NH doesn't mean the Dean will sweep the other 8 out in the time frame of Mid-January to early Feb. If Dean doesn't do well(lower than 3th) in SC, this could help Edwards, Kerry, Clark and Gephardt(and don't count out Lieberman, Sharpton, Kunnich and Braun just have wade thru it all and thier numbers will show a solid following).

When ever the Super Tuesday is..that will be when the "pretenders" will be sorted out from the "contenders" and not a day before.


what i edited:I forgot Clark my bad

[AP]

27. Kerry might put ALL his money into NH, becuase it's all or nothing for him

Even if Dean wins NH, he might have to spend so much money, it'll be hard for him regroup and spend enough to do well in the south. Or, he'll get a funding boost if he wins NH. But then again, everyone's expecting him to win NH...

[Demobrat]

17. I think you're being way premature.

For one thing, Clark has not even begun to fight. He's hanging back now, but if it comes down to he and Dean and he thinks he has a shot, I think we'll see what he's got up his sleeve.

[stopbush]

20. Big problem for Clark - he's slipped from his entry numbers

and that's a hard perception to beat. Kerry is faltering and then there's the also-rans.

Dean & Gephardt have been slowly but surely climbing. That bodes well for both of them. But I think that in that match-up, Dean wins on his anti-war stance, especially as the war slogs even more, the death toll rises and dim son makes more and more idiotic decisions that get people killed. That stink won't hurt Dean, but it will stick to Gephardt who supported bush BIG TIME on the IWR.

Ergo my initial post.

[Demobrat]

21. Well I hope you're right.

Not that I'm too worried. I have more and more faith in Dean,Trippi and the gang of 500,000 every day, but the truth is we haven't even won one primary yet. Lots of work to be done!

[FrenchieCat]

23. Clark has done

no TV ads yet...nor has he spent any real money.....

So let's just wait....the undecided outnumber the poll numbers for the frontrunners.

[paulk]

25. last Iowa poll I saw (Des Moines Register)

The only candidate losing ground was Howard Dean. Granted, that's just one poll -

But...

Don't count your votes before they're cast.

[Tom Rinaldo]

45. Wrong about Clark

Clark's entry numbers were like Mondales coming out of the 2004 Dem Convention when he was briefly whooping Reagan, artificial is the word. The result of an insane burst of positive publicity before anyone had a chance to say an unkind word about him. It was great for Clark that it happened that way because it helped his early fund raising, giving his campaign a fighting chance to get up to speed after a very late start. If Clark's initial numbers had been 8% or 9% ,and then risen to 12% later he would be in much worse shape today, he would be without money and an also ran.

As it is now Clark's numbers are rising. Give that another week to sink in and the perceptions will start shifting and NH is still 3 months away. The latest Wall Street Journal/ NBC poll has Clark at over 17% to Dean's 15%. Another very recent poll (Newsweek I believe, has Dean at 16% and Ckark at 15%. In both polls his support is rising. Last week he leap frogged over Edwards in South Carolina into first place there. Clark's campaign is starting to catch fire in NH by the way. Just watch what is about to happen there while Kerry implodes. Remember Clark is still least known by the public. It is my observation and experience that most people react very positively to him when they are actually exposed to him. That is what is going on now. Clark will be very much alive after the campaign leaves NH and heads to states where Dean is less strong.

The media keeps peddling the Clark is slipping story when the evidence is contrary. Meanwhile they talk up Edwards or Gephardt or anyone else even while their numbers are all lower. Many suspect a corporate media bias against Clark because he is most threatening to Bush. They have tried to marginalize Clark but they are failing because he is getting his message out directly. Second to Dean he has the strongest grass roots backing. Clark's TV ads start next week.

[caledesi]

18. It's wrapped. Trust me. nt

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. How could he have it wrapped up months before a single vote is cast?

Gee, who need those pesky elections anyway? Maybe we should just scrap the whole going-to-the-polls thing and just let the media and the pollsters decide who gets to govern us.

[DFLforever]

26. Dean's worked the hardest and smartest

and we are beginning to see the fruits of his labor..but remember no one's voted yet and there may be a surprise or two in the next few months.

[DrFunkenstein]

28. Dean Has Won Already

Throw in the towels. I'm sure there will be no developments between now and March. The Dean express is riding over the crushed bones of his enemies.

<>

Although apparently he needs to check his blood pressure.

(For his sake, I hope that's just bad lighting. He looks like the blueberry chick from Willy Wonka!)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

30. LOL, but he's actually quite tanned

Saw it myself in person.

But as a doctor, I would hope he's using self-tanner!

[DrFunkenstein]

31. Lol

I saw a guy get a tanning body spray on Queer Eye for the Straight Guy - I wonder if Dean goes for one of those!

He normally looks very healthy, but in that picture he looks distinctly purple.

[surfermaw]

43. Jimmy Who?

Bill Who?

[tedoll78]

29. All it takes..

is one slip-up. Dean's teflon is definitely being tested right now, and he's passing famously. It's very reassuring, should he get the nomination.

Still, I think Dean has a ticket to the final round, and that's all. The other 5 major candidates are fighting for the one other ticket. The new WSJ/NBC poll out today shows Clark at 17%, Dean at 15%, so it's still way too early.

I seriously wonder though.. if Dean does win the nomination, there are two paths that the media could choose from.

1) David Slays Goliath - a true American story: governor of small state with a next-to-nothing chance of being elected President slays allegedly popular wartime commander-in-chief. It'd make for fascinating political drama, and this could be how the media pays its penance for the past three years.

2) A Grand Set-Up - Dean is promoted in the media, only to be slaughtered himself. Basically, follow the money from the media conglomerates to the GOP, watch the GOP bait them with promises of more good de-regulation in exchange for a slaying.

I'm scared of #2, but I'd LOVE a #1.

[DrFunkenstein]

32. Dean's Teflon Is More Lucky Timing

Dean was finally getting grilled in September, but Clark's announcement let him off the hook. The flag flap was followed by the union announcements. So, I don't see his "teflon" as much beyond lucky timing.

On the other hand, his debate performances are real, and the more exposure Dean gets, the more he will reveal himself.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

33. He was GREAT with Wolf Blitzer tonight

I agree he doesn't shine in debates, but he's been excellent in recent one-on-one interviews.

And the union endorsements are more than lucky timing -- I know what you mean, it did take the heat off the lame CF thing, but he worked his ass off to get those endorsements.

Respectfully, Dr. Funk, I beg to differ: the more exposure Dean gets, the more his campaign will strengthen. And it's not all Dean -- many people seem to be hungry for something to believe in again. At least that's my perspective.

Can't wait to go to Iowa...

[MercutioATC]

34. Interesting way to state things...

"The flag flap was followed by the union announcements."

Another way to say it might be "The union announcements followed the flag flap." The fact is that the two largest unions in the AFL-CIO decided to endorse Dean while he was still in the midst of this "flag flap". They obviously weren't too concerned about his comments or how they'd effect his campaign.

Which begs the question: Was this a case where Dean's "teflon" did its job or was this much ado about nothing?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

36. Not only was it Much Ado about Nothing

It was also a Comedy of Errors, and in the end, it was All's Well that Ends Well.

[AnnitaR]

38. "wrapped up"? I think not!

Sure we can't live and die by polls around here but I think these prove a point that Clark is still very much in it!

This was posted on Clark's blog tonight:
>>Not only does Clark beat Dean by 10 points in S. Carolina and Edwards by 7 points.
Clark is ahead of everyone in Georgia and 6 point ahead of Dean. There is one point difference between Clark and Dean in Arizona, Delaware, Oklahoma, N.Y., Illinois, and Pennsylvania.
Clark hadn't even been to any of these states when the polls were taken.
Dean has spent money on ads in various places to no avail.
Clark leads Dean by 4 points in New Jersy, by 7 points in Alabama, 3 points in California.
So where is Dean the powerful front runner?<<

I think this blogger makes a good point.

[SahaleArm]

39. Whoever wins Iowa and/or NH...

will be the nominee, just like in '92. Didn't you get the memo:)?

[AnnitaR]

41. Oh, yea... silly me... I forgot! Pres. Clinton was just a figment of

my imagination! LOL!

Whatever happens, it's going to be a fun ride. That's one thing we can all be certain of.

Think I'll go munch on a Clark bar now. :9

[tedoll78]

40. Consider this:

If Clark takes-out Edwards, Clark has a chance to solidify the South behind him. That's over 1200 delegates - more than half of the 2170 needed for the nomination.

If he can pull-off California, he gets a chunk of that state's 440 delegates. And Zogby indicates that he's doing really, really well in the Rocky Mountain states, which is another chunk of delegates waiting for him if things continue in this manner.

Clark has a path to the nomination; he just needs to make it happen. He's doing really, really well nationally. The meme that he's fading is being conflicted with new poll numbers this week showing that his star is indeed on the rise. Pretty good for a guy who's been putting his name out for the past three months.

It'd be a bit better for Gep to win Iowa, as it would probably slightly (slightly) slow Dean's momentum. Gep would drop-out anyway; he'll be broke.

Dean, barring a catastrophe, will win New Hampshire. Kerry is out then.

Clark wins South Carolina, knocking-out Edwards, and solidifying his chances at a southern sweep. It's also very possible that by winning South Carolina, he could be the first candidate to beat Dean in a primary; this would put him with a bit more of the media spotlight. Especially with a good 4th quarter, I can see the media shaping this into a Dean-versus-Clark drama. And I'd be willing to bet that Dean will have made more comments angering the dropped-out candidates than Clark will have, which could go a long way in the endorsement aspect of this race.

Of course, I'd argue that Clark should pick Dean as his running mate if the fight gets too divisive. Dean has great legislative skills (as exhibited in his years as VT's governor), brings a great fiery movement to the ticket, and it could be argued that Dean brings the ticket to the center. Party unity is a great asset in the upcoming race. Dean and Clark on the same ticket accomplishes this, and has great appeal to the middle-of-the-road voters.

Should be interesting to watch..

[JeniB]

49. He will not drop out or be out of money.

Where do you guys get that? Gep is solid and is planning on taking to the end. AND he has a great chance. Don't count him out.

[Pez]

42. if by "wrap" you mean "avocado bean sprout with sesame dressing" maybe

this ain't over 'til it's over... wait until you see what havoc i wreak in NH woooo!!!!

-=Kerry-2K4=-

[MaineDem]

44. Nope (n/t)

.

[ACPS65]

46. Yeah.

Dean calling southerners essentially racists really is appealing to rank-n-file Dems. Edwards was right: Stay in Vermont and do things "like we do in Vermont". Thanks.

[w4rma]

51. Many Southerners don't consider support of the Rebel flag to be racist.

It's heritage and regional history to many Southerners. The same goes for Southern Generals and just about every historic part of the Civil War.

[DakotaDemocrat]

47. So how many delegates has he recieved...

...or how many primaries has he won?

The Dean campaign has screamed that this a grassroots effort and the people should be heard. Yet this post is about how Dean has wrapped it all up before

...anyone has voted,
...any primaries or caucuses have chosen a winner, and
...any delegates have been awarded.

We can certainly have this argument after Super Tuesday, but this post basically says that everyone else should go home (even the people who vote) and declare Dean the winner...Geesh...

...or did I wake up from the long night of watching fillibustering and woke up in 2004?

At least we're not getting ahead of ourselves here...

[MaineDem]

48. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

And thanks for a good post.

[Zynx]

50. He hasn't wrapped it up.

Nobody can "wrap it up" before votes are cast. Is he likely to get the nomination? Yes. Is he going to get it for sure? We have no idea.

I personally think he and Clark are the best we have and I will be happy if either one gets the nod. I am really hoping for a Clark/Dean or a Dean/Clark ticket. I think its a winner.