Stuart Rothenberg : It's Probably Over...(Dean Victory)

[helleborient]

"It Ain’t Over ‘til It’s Over, But It’s Probably Over"

http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_53/rothenberg/3587-1.html

Analysis from "Roll Call" by Stuart Rothenberg

[lancdem]

1. He also thinks Dean will get trounced in November

I sure as hell hope he's wrong about that.

[meegbear]

3. If he's the nominee we will ...

[CMT]

2. Bullfeathers

I'm a Dean supporter but I don't see him breaking away from the pack in a way which makes him the inescapable nominee. Lots of good signs of late, but first votes are two months away and lots of hurdles ahead.

[eissa]

4. It's way too early!

Geez, even Dean supporters and Dean himself have been saying this repeatedly! We're one year away folks -- absolutely anything can happen. I would obviously love to see Dean get the nomination, but I am cautiously optimistic about it. This is not a done deal by far. AND....if he were to get it he WOULD win. This Stuart guy is way off the mark. :dunce:

[mw]

5. I'm sick of hearing that "Dean can't beat Bush". Its BS.

And I believe that it's BS being spun by Rove's droves.

Contrary to Roves--woops!--leak that "We want Dean, that's the man", they DONT WANT DEAN.

What exactly about Dean makes him unable to win? He's NOT far left (despite the spin that he is). And he's tough-as-nails willing to go to the wall against Bush's lunacy.

Those alone are a winning ticket, if you ask me.

[glarius]

6. I don't understand...don't the Dems want to win the White House?

I'm looking at this as an outsider so excuse me if I seem to be sticking my nose in BUT....Don't you need to get a lot of Republicans and Independents to vote for your nominee, besides the core Democrats?...If that is the case, wouldn't General Clark appeal more to these non-Democrat voters because of his military history???? :)

[DFLforever]

7. That's the argument re Clark

but no one really knows... he doesn't have a track record, as you know... the primaries should give us some more info about his electoral appeal, especially SC.

Also, the 2004 election, because it will likely be close, may depend on who can best get out their base support...that's the Dem's real challenge imo.

[Bucky]

8. Conventional wisdom= echo chamber

Rothenberg is a pretty good gage of CW, just as David Broder is a reliable gage of where the conventional wisdom is gonna be damned wrong. Broder remains the preimminent columnist of the day by making obvious, fatuous, and predictibly incorrect observations. Nothing succeeds like banality.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

9. MANY people on this board do not like Wes Clark.....

...my guess is because he's a former military man. Well guess what? I like Clark and he is my first choice. I agree with him on many issues. Howard Dean is nice too but is 4th on my list. I am concerned that he will be a polarizing candidate that will not be able to win over swing voters.

I also am not happy with all of this "Pro-Dean Bias" on DU! I am not all to taken by his candidacy but if he is the nomminee I will vote for him.

Clark 04' :dem: