My Primary Predictions

[Epoch]

Here are my primary predictions, let me know what you think:

jan 13th: D.C., Dean
Jan. 19 Iowa Caucus, Gephardt or Dean, with toss up for third

Jan. 27 New Hampshire Primary: Dean, Kerry, then Clark or Edwards

Feb. 3 Arizona Primary: Dean, Clark, Sleep Joe
Delaware Primary Sleep Joe, Dean, Clark
Missouri Primary Gephardt (if he's still around), Clark, Dean
New Mexico Caucus: Dean, Clark
Oklahoma Primary: Clark, Sleep Joe, Dean
South Carolina Primary : Clark, Edwards, Dean, Gephardt/Kerry (if they're around)

Feb. 7 Michigan Caucus: Dean
Washington Caucus: Dean

Feb. 8 Maine Caucus: Dean, Kerry

Super Tuesday may be irrelevant by this point. If Dean wins NH, Kerry is out. If Dean wins IA, Geph is not out but not effective. If Clark wins SC, Edwards is done. And if others win Deleware, OK, and AZ, Sleep Joe goes home.

Yaron

[Langis]

1. Sounds about right for now

A lot can change in 2 and a half months though.

[Brucey]

2. Pretty good predictions, but you hardly went out on a limb.

SC might go for Clark, but Edwards is more likely. Dean will not win in Iowa; Gep has spent more time there and has connections. Dean will not do as well as you predict, and Clark will do better than you think. It will likely boil down to Dean and Clark, but lots can happen yet.

[Padraig18]

4. I think Dean will do better than expected in IA.

His supporters are twice as 'firm' in their support, and almost twice as likely to be 'definite' about showing up for the caucuses. There was a link to a DM Register poll on that here a couple of days ago.

I think Dean may well eke out a win in IA.

[eissa]

3. I think you're giving Joe too much credit

I can't see him placing in the top 3 of any state.

[Brucey]

5. No, Joe has lots of support in some states, particularly

NJ and NY.