Edwards doing well in recent NC poll

[AP]

Remember, NC has gone Republican every year since '76, so the stats which include Republican voters are very encouraging. Edwards is trending in the right direction here too. He's closed the gap on Bush from 19 to 10.

Clinton, I believe, was losing to Bush by 15-20 points in '91. Edwards and Clark are down by 10 (52-42 and 50-40, respectively). Dean loses 54-40. (MOE is 4.) It looks like Edwards might have made the right move in dropping out of Senate race, since his approvals in NC have shot up, and there's less resistance to his candidacy. (This isn't explicit...I'm just inferring.)

http://www.newsobserver.com/edwards/coverage/story/3025576p-2770984c.html

Edwards easily would win North Carolina's Democratic presidential primary if it were held today, despite growing interest in Dean. The poll found Edwards would draw the support of 43 percent of Democrats, while Dean would get 25 percent. All seven other Democrats were in single digits.

Dean's support has more than doubled since January. Meanwhile, those backing Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts dropped from 20 percent in July to 9 percent in the current poll.

The poll showed other positive trends for Edwards in his home state. Fifty-four percent of North Carolina voters polled said they approve of his presidential run. That compares with 39 percent who approved when he launched an exploratory bid for the presidency in January.

Similarly, 49 percent said they believe he is qualified to be president. That compares with 38 percent in January. But voters offered a mixed assessment of Edwards' chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. Twenty-one percent of those polled said he is likely to win the nomination, while 34 percent said he has some chance to win and 36 percent said he has no chance. Those numbers are slightly more optimistic than results two months ago.

[dsc]

1. Good news for Dean here too

That would be a mighty impressive second place if the primary were held today. He also isn't significantly worse off than Clark in a two way with Bush. Their 40% are even though Bush is 4 points better. Given that all people are going on is fleeting impressions (except in Edwards case) this is not bad news at all.

I really wish Edwards had kept that seat. We are all but certain to lose it now and no matter who wins in 2004 that seat could be major league important.

[AP]

2. If Bowles were doing poorly in the polls we'd have heard about it.

I suspect that the fact that conjecture like yours about losing NC is all we hear, and there are no polls substantiating the conjecture, is evidence that Bowles might do fine. Especially if Edwards is the presidential nominee.

[dsc]

3. We haven't won a single open seat race

in North Carolina in ages. Bowles is doing well now but he also polled well against Dole and we know what happened. This seat would have been immensly easier to hold this seat with Edwards.

[AP]

4. Why do you think we don't hear anything about the polls in that race?

However, we heard about them all the time before Edwards dropped out.

I think Edwards dropped out because they had internal polling showing that Bowles could win. I think we don't hear about the polls now because they're good and, rather than hurt Edwards, they probably make it look like he made a smart move.

Since Edwards has a great chance of wining, is very likely going ot be the VP nominee (to Clark) if he's not the nominee, I think this will turn out to be a winning move, helping Dems win senate and the presidential race.

[dsc]

7. I didn't think we had settled on Bowles yet

and that we had a primary going on. I hope you are right on Bowles. I know that Dole was somewhat of a special case and that he isn't entirely to blame for that loss but still this will be a tough race at best.

[caledesi]

5. Hey, I am a Dean supporter, but if Edwards is the nominee..I will

vote for him. <plus he's SO cute> Am I shallow? Yeah.

[virtualobserver]

6. that is pretty good news for Edwards.........

He is one of the few candidates that can afford to lose Iowa and NH.

[CMT]

8. Good news for Edwards, Clark and Dean

Edwards is doing well in his homestate and has a solid plurality for the primary. His ten-point deficit is almost half of what he had vs. Bush a few months ago.

Good News for Clark because he also is only ten-points behind Bush in North Carolina at this point.

Good News for Dean because his 25% of the primary vote is not too shabby and would win him a few delegates. Also his 14-point deficit vs. Bush is not overwhelming and statistically not much worse than Clark and Edwards (especially for a Yankee from Vermont) Like Clark he attracts 40% of the Democratic vote vs. Bush.