In the South, GOP Rides the Wave of Bush's Popularity

[markus]

"Must Reading" says today's The Note, and I agree.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/columns/la-na-outlook17nov17,1,4954621.column

How the hell do we win without at least a part of the south? Obviously, we need Florida back. Where else can we win?

The writer suggests that candidates have lost while touting "the mix of cultural centrism and middle-class economic populism that most party strategists have considered the key to Southern survival".

I don't think we've gone far enough with "middle-class economic populism". I would hope that the Democratic nominee would do a few bold things: 1) Endorse replacing race-based affirmtive action with income-based affirmative action. This would scare the living beejeebus out of the GOP, and help break the meme " are mostly for the minorities. 2) Back down on gun control. Dean had this dead to rights answering Kerry in the recent debate.

Reading futher into this article, one reaches the most disturbing bit of all: the prospects foropen Senate seats in the South. Read to there and think about the precarious balance of power in Washington.

"In the Senate, Democrats face the daunting prospect of defending seats left open by the retirements of Ernest F. Hollings in South Carolina, John Edwards (who is stepping down to run for president) in North Carolina, Bob Graham in Florida and Zell Miller in Georgia. Except in Florida, where the two parties begin statewide races at parity, all of those races will be difficult for the Democrats."

Welcome to One Party Government for the first time in a generation, and George Bush, Tom DeLay and Rick Santori are in control of your life.

Have A Nice Day.

[CMT]

1. Bush's popularity was certainly a factor in Louisiana

In Kentucky we lost in large part due to the unpopularity of Gov. Patton due to an affair he had. In Mississippi, Harley Barbour had a huge edge in money and Mississippi is a decidedly conservative state.

I think we can win some southern states.

[billbuckhead]

3. Let's just shoot a gun in the air and wave the battle flag like Dean

That'll work. Southerners don't think taxes work. They think it's income restribution from those who work, save and invest intelligently to lazy,.. mostly dark people.

[lastliberalintexas]

6. So we just let them keep thinking that?

Or do we explain to them how much, much more of their hard earned tax dollars are being shipped to corporations than to those "dark people"? Do we fight for their votes or just let them continue shooting themselves in the feet? There are a number of Southern states that are winnable by most of our candidates if we get turnout up (think LA).


I'm not saying Dean necessarily has the best ideas or strategy for taking back Southern voters, but he at least had the nerve to try to tackle the race and gun issues driving those voters to the repubs. I am just sorry that so many of y'all let your hatred of Dean cloud your vision in even discussing these issues. Nothing to see here, just move along. Let's just let the South continue voting repub because we don't like the guy who opened this needed dialogue. :eyes:

[billbuckhead]

10. Who George Wallace, Lee Atwater, Strom Thurman, Ralph Reed,Lester Maddox?

Some nerve to fall back on the Confederate flag? The Dems deserve to lose if they STILL want to be the candidate of the white guy in a pickup truck with a Confederate flag. Surely we can find a better way to reach out to working class whites, but the cult of Dean will excuse any stupid thing this lightweight panderer says as courageous. Hell, even Zell Miller stood against the ConFlag.

[La_Serpiente]

2. Here is what pisses me off

about the legislators that are from the South and Republican -- like Tom Delay.

A majority of this country's income is made mostly in Democratic states. The poorer states get $1.30 cents back for every dollar they send to the Federal govt. while the richer states get .80 cents for every dollar they send to the govt.

In the 2000 election, 15 of the 17 poor states voted for Bush while 11 of the 13 richest ones voted for Gore. All those Republican states cut the federal programs, but they are getting more in federal spending? It doesn't seem right to me, but then again, THEY have the population advantage.

[PATRICK]

4. pork

The Dems did it. The GOP does it with different gravy recipes and Biblical stuffing. I wouldn't make an issue reminding them of that but of what they are losing in education, jobs(decent ones) military lives and honor, Big Government radicals, deficit spending.

You make the irony thick that the rich vote Dem and the poor vote GOP. Untwist that logic in the minds of the people and we take all fifty states.

[chaumont58]

5. It's not just the poor, its the poor whites

Dean got whacked for his comment about pickups and confederate flags. I have made the same comment many times, when I visit a WalMart. I shake my head at how illogical it all seems. Ron Brownstein is a good reporter. His reporting has the ring of truth. What in the world do the white Southerners see in Republicans(and Bush), except maybe a revenge for civil rights, and to return for some mythical days when Christianity reigned supreme and all was right with the world.

[9119495]

15. Good point. I posted a question a while ago about the

U.S. house and passign a bill to increase the number of members by fifty. This would beter represent the population of urban areas. This would also bring a truer number of Democrats into the house.

[AP]

7. Why do you have to get rid of AA? Why can't you just ADD programs

that address income inequality.

Taking race out of AA leaves you with something that isn't AA.

We still have a problem with racism in America and isn't the time to start pretending that we don't. If we do, we'll just get a black underclass and poverty which pulls down wages and reduces opportunity for everyone, black and white.

[AP]

8. Dems have already backed down on gun control. What they have to do

is NOT back down on gun SAFETY.

[AP]

9. Another hole in your argument:

Clinton didnd't make inroads in the south because he backed down on gun safety and race. In fact, he made inroads while taking those issues MORE seriously.

And Bush hasn't made progress in the South by being more racists and labeling Dems as anti-gun. In fact, he says barely a peep about guns, and he has two very prominent black cabinet members.

It sounds like you've tailored an argument around Dean, rather than around the facts.

Bush is making inroads in the south because he comes accross as a good old boy and because of the War on Iraq.

And you're saying that running a guy who is the farthest thing from a good old boy and who has the wrong message on Iraq (a fair-weather opposer) is the way to win the south.

[Rose Siding]

11. The Post says it doesn't matter

A Route for 2004 That Doesn't Go Through Dixie

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40359-2003Nov14.html

In the presidential race we'd win with the Gore states and NH and WV or with AZ

[dusty64]

12. We could win without the

southern states, but would have a really hard time regaining the House and Senate with that strategy. Despite what the rethug media says what happened this year was a backlash against INCUMBENTS. From the polls I've seen Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Florida, and even Virginia are worth fighting for. With the right agenda they can be won and force the rethugs to campaign there. Just handing them over to our regime is NOT an option.

[9119495]

16. Damn DC Post. I've been saying that for months!

Where is my credit (or cash payment at least)

[ludwigb]

13. The Republicans are at a high tide in the South

And I'm not sure we can fight back at the moment. In my home state (Texas), we know that the demographics will eventually swing our way as the state becomes more urbanized and minorities more empowered. Nevertheless, what is working against us is that traditional conservative Texas no longer identify with the Democratic party--a trend appears to have reached its apex now. Recently, Tony Sanchez spend millions trying to appeal to moderates and Hispanics in his run for governor and got absolutely nowhere--partially because the last of the white conservative Democrats (some of which voted for white conservative Dem John Sharp) left the fold for good.

Some southern states can be won. Obviously Florida, but also Arkansas and Tennessee with the right candidate(s). But it is also true that we don't "need" the South per se--we can win by running strong labor-supported campaigns in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Ohio (all of which will be close). I'm convinced we can win these states if we can muster an effective get-out-the-vote campaign in urban areas. However, I don't reccomend this strategy alone--it is better to have a campaign with a chance of winning in the South and force Bush to expend resources there. What we need most in the South is organization--the Republicans have us beat in this department because they have the backing of fundamentalist churches.

[DemDogs]

14. But SOME Democrats do win in the South

Edwards beat a Republican in Jesse Helms' state. (He was behind until those last voters made up their mind, I think.) And we can win electoral votes with the right candidate in the South.
Florida is an easy example, where Gore already won recently and where both Senators are Democrats. And Louisiana has been a thorn in Bush's side. Arkansas, Tennessee (with its new, rural-conscious Democratic governor), Virginia (with its rural conscious Democratic governor), Oklahoma has a Democratic governor, North Carolina (with Edwards only), West Virginia, even Georgia are possible wins IF we pick a candidate who can win in these states. Lucky us, we have a candidate running who can and has won in this region. Edwards.

As for whether we need the Southern states, sure it is mathematically possible to win without them. But the South makes up over 160 electoral votes. Do you really think we can give Karl Rove a 160 vote lead and say "Beat you to 270." Check out the electoral map at Edwards site <http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/> and if you press previous years, you can see why we need to win and if you press View Election Trends you can see which states we have a chance to win. I think we can win in places where they have Democratic governors, too, because they are willing to vote for a Democrat. We just have to nominate the right candidate. And there is not any doubt at all that that candidate is Edwards.