New Poll: Dean leading 44-23 in New Hampshire

[CMT]

A new Marist poll indicates that Howard Dean has a wide lead over John Kerry in New Hampshire, the second recent poll to indicate a 20+ lead for Dean in the state in recent days.

Dean leads 44-23 over chief rival John Kerry. The other candidates trail in single digits.

Dean does best among liberals, college educated, Independents, and higher income voters.

Kerry and Dean are also many voters second choice for many NH democrats.

A majority of potential NH dems are more likely to support a candidate who opposed the war. Dean garners 51% of these voters compared to 20% for Kerry.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Disconnect here

"Most potential New Hampshire Democratic primary voters are more likely to support a candidate who opposed spending $87 billion for U.S. operations in Iraq.

I think if Kerry makes the case of why he voted for IWR and against the 87 billion he can get back a lot of these supporters.
Fortunately there's plenty of time to do so.

[helleborient]

2. Excuse me, get them back?

Sen. Kerry has never had 44 % support in New Hampshire.

He has to appeal to them for the first time - it's not "getting them back" - they weren't Kerry supporters in the first place.

[Hawkeye-X]

4. Exactly

And if I remember correctly, those polls for Kerry has a 20% solid support attached to it -- "those who won't change their minds" unlike yourself, NYFM

Hawkeye-X

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. No. I recently learned Dean directly takes from Kerry's support

Look at all the Dean people in NH who say Kerry is their 2nd choice- they would be for Kerry if not for IWR. If Kerry can keep hammering away at the rationale behind both of these votes then he has a chance with some of these Dean supporters.

[KaraokeKarlton]

6. Maybe before, but not anymore

NH is extremely pro gun rights. Kerry is just going to continue to sink in NH because he is doing what even the most liberal of NH's Democrats refuse to do...openly support more gun control. Doing that is equivalent to putting nails in your own coffin.

[polpilot]

16. KK called it first. Kerry blasted his pheasants & then his chances in NH.

Blamm!!! Blammm!! 1 Kerry campaign down the tubes.

Dean '04...

[dfong63]

7. yeah, if kerry can change the past, if kerry can change his spots,

... then he might be able to catch up with dean.

[helleborient]

9. This isn't the same as "getting them back" (n/t)

[killbotfactory]

3. The Dean implosion

He's peaking too soon, and raising too much money, and has too many supporters, and his campaign is too well run! There's no way he can win!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

18. you forgot:

expectations are too high!

[OKNancy]

8. AH the Marist poll . the one that had Lazio many points

ahead of Hillary Clinton. FYI

[Zynx]

10. Look at any NH poll. Dean crushes Kerry.

[helleborient]

11. Choose a different poll then...

They all have the same result...Dean in a greater than 10% lead over Kerry.

[OKNancy]

17. Oh, I have no doubt that he is way ahead of Kerry

and I read all the polls. Just be aware in the future that Marist is not reliable...like say, if Dean were running against Bush.

[The Sushi Bandit]

12. Another KRAP Poll

So where are the numbers? What is their scientific criteria? What areas of the state did they poll and what areas of the state did they not poll? What are the demographics of the persons polled?

Like i said, ANOTHER KRAP POLL THAT MEANS NOTHING

[helleborient]

13. Here is what you ask for....

711 POTENTIAL NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY VOTERS
This survey was conducted on November 11th through November 13th, 2003. 711 registered Democrats, Independents who expressed an interest in voting in the Democratic presidential primary, and New Hampshire residents who are likely to register as Democrats or Independents in order to vote in the Democratic primary were interviewed. The sample was selected in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New Hampshire and adjusted for turnout in comparable elections. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The results are statistically significant at ±4% for the entire sample. There are 447 likely voters. The results for this sub-sample are statistically significant at ±5%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.


This poll seems to have gone further than some to be proportional geographically.

[LuminousX]

14. Another Poll

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/dem111403.pdf

With all the numbers and stuff.

[Zynx]

15. Look at any poll.

Same result. Kerry is getting creamed.