Poll shows U.S. Senate candidates neck-and-neck (Alaska)

[Freddie Stubbs]

Anchorage, Alaska, Nov. 18 - It's expected to be the most expensive campaign in state history -- the race for U.S. Senate -- pitting incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski against former Gov. Tony Knowles.

Both campaigns will spend the next year taking the pulse of Alaskans through the use of polls.

Channel 2 News also will be conducting a series of 12 statewide polls to give you much of the same information that the candidates are seeing. Starting in January, we'll be releasing the polls on the first Tuesday of every month. We're calling the series "First Tuesday."

As we looked for a pollster, we had one ground rule. Our pollster could not work directly or indirectly for either candidate through the course of the race.

more: http://www.msnbc.com/local/ktuu/m340014.asp?0ct=-302

[CMT]

1. it is going to be a tough race

but I think it is one democrats can pick up in part due to the nepotism charge.

[zorkpolitics]

2. closer than I thought!

I thought Knowles had this one wrapped up. He has been ahead in all other polls I've seen by >10%. Is this poll wrong or is Murkowski moving up?

[dusty64]

3. Still good news,

although Knowles had been doing better earlier. It will be close, but very possible to win here as he is pretty popular in stark contrast to murkowski.

[dusty64]

4. After looking at the story

again it looks even better. Knowles is ahead in ALL areas including those that ought to favor his opponent. This should be his to lose.

[mndemocrat_29]

5. This should be Knowles's to lose

A very good shot at a pickup, and Knowles will be a fine addition to the Senate (hopefully the Senate Majority!)

[jiacinto]

6. This is one we really need to win

But I give the edge to Murkowski at the outset since AK is so Republican. The last Democrat to win a seat there was Mike Gravel, whom the voters re-elected in 1974.

Knowles is our best chance in 30 years to win a seat there. And if anyone can do it he can. However, he has at best an even chance and I see a close race that has a very slight edge to Murkowski.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I agree, Murkowski is a small favorite

In fact, my PAN (Partisan Adjustment Number) Theory suggests Knowles must be significantly ahead -- 4+ points in the final polls -- to actually be even or better. Remember, Fran Ulmer was buried in the gov race last year when some late polls had her ahead, and others very close, to the elder Murkowski.

The certainties of the presidential vote avalanche in Alaska cannot be understated in regard to the Senate contest. When I look at Alaska senate results during presidential years, my enthusiasm for Knowles' chances takes a severe reality tumble.

Obviously, we desperately need this one and Illinois to offset likely setbacks in Dixie.

[mndemocrat_29]

8. Speaking of Fran Ulmer...

Does anyone else think she'll make another run for statewide office someday? I know that Don Young is 70 and could be retiring fairly soon. How do Ulmer's chances look in an open seat race? She wouldn't be running against a Murkowski this time, I assume.

[dusty64]

9. Another one?

How many are there anyways?

[jiacinto]

10. Some problems with PAN

North Dakota's Senators win in landslides all the time even in presidential years.

[mdguss]

11. Notice the 6.2%

Greens. They have a chance at losing this one too. It'd be a nine point lead if the Greens did the right thing and sat this one out. But since the Greens have such a great record on doing the right thing, I'm not going to hold my breath.

[mndemocrat_29]

12. But will Greens have that great of a following in Alaska in 2004

If the Democrats have a viable candidate? When Ulmer was leading in the polls in 2002, the Greens only got 1 percent.

[interceptor]

13. don't forget the permanent fund

With Kuparuk/North Slope production going down, Alaskans are more and more unhappy with not being allowed to drill in ANWR. We don't win big on that one. That was a lower 48 thing pushed on them, just like the idea where they could produce natural gas but not use it themselves in the sixties. I don't think the Alaskan population that mostly lives off oil is "green" enough for us to sweep it with our platform.

also a sourdough :D

[Doomsayer13]

14. lets hope to god they do

but ANWR might be an issue. Other than the greens, it's pretty much a consensus in Alaska that ANWR drilling would be good for the state, and I don't think a candidate can win without supporting it. that issue alone could entice a Green to run a candidate, which may have a bad effect. We'll see. I remain hopeful that we can unseat this republican.

[jiacinto]

16. Alaska was Ralph Nader's best state in 2000

if I recall.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Right, I'm always surprised by the 60+% they get

Maybe North Dakota has not had stalwart Republican challengers in recent cycles, sort of like our senate failures in Maine. Plus our two guys there are very impressive. Conrad's use of charts and no-nonsense comparisons is always great to watch on the senate floor.

Still, it doesn't matter if a Democrat wins big in a Republican state, or vice-versa. The PAN handicap is a relationship between consensus final polls and actual vote totals in a given state. If Conrad leads the polls by 15 and wins by 13, it is actually a +2 Republican result even though the Dem won huge.

Again, jiacinto, PAN is not exact or complete. And a state like North Dakota is not an ideal test because the polls are few in number, and I'm never sure how sophisticated or well financed they are in a sparsely populated area like that.

[jiacinto]

17. I can think of a few other areas where Pan didn't work out

Think of the 2003 LA Governor's race. Jindal was ahead in every last poll but lost. Ehrlich was only ahead by 2-3% in the MD Governor's race but still came out ahead. So PAN didn't hold up there either.

I can also thin kof the WY's Governor's race. Freudenthal was never ahead decisively, neither was Brad Henry in OK.

While I think PAN is a useful variable, on its own self, I don't see it being the sole factor. It could be used in a formula, though.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

18. El"Reich" won in Maryland!

.

[jiacinto]

19. Whoops

I need to correct that.