Dean closing in on Lieberman in new Quinninpiac CT poll

[pruner]

November 20, 2003 -- Dean closes on Lieberman in Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll finds; Native son also loses ground to Bush

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has narrowed the gap and now trails Sen. Joseph Lieberman 28 -- 23 percent among Connecticut Democrats, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Lieberman enjoyed a comfortable 33 -- 17 percent lead among Democrats in an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Following in the Democratic pack in this latest poll are:

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 14 percent;

Former Gen. Wesley Clark with 9 percent;

Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 8 percent.

No other Democrat tops 3 percent, with 10 percent undecided.

<snip>

In the Presidential matchup, Lieberman tops Bush 49 -- 43 percent in Connecticut, compared to a 53 -- 42 percent lead October 10. In other head-to-head matchups:

Bush leads Dean 48 -- 44 percent;

Bush gets 46 percent to Kerry's 47 percent, a tie;

Bush beats Gephardt 48 -- 43 percent;

Bush beats Clark 48 -- 42 percent;

Bush beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 50 -- 42 percent.

<snip>

From November 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,600 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The survey includes 509 Democrats with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x9047.xml

[SlavesandBulldozers]

1. what is wrong with CT?

that sounds like Florida with those numbers. why's Bush so damn strong? and is CT the only state in the union that thinks Lieberman is a democrat, much less a good idea?

[sandnsea]

2. Kerry beats Bush!

Wake up people! Kerry keeps doing best against Bush, again and again. Time to get behind the guy who can kick Bush's ass AND change the course of this country so we'll have renewable energies, quality health care, college educations, fair labor and trade laws, equity for all Americans, privacy from terror czars, cops and firemen on the streets again, reasonable gun laws, medical marijuana, respectful diplomatic relations, respect for culture and foreign cultures, a world free from nuclear and bio/chem weapons, landmine ban treaty, ICC, and maybe even a few friends on the planet.

[helleborient]

3. But Kerry trails among Democrats on either side of his home state...

Hmmm...so Kerry supporters still want to win the nomination by telling all of us how dumb we are.

[sandnsea]

6. But he does best against Bush

Time and again. And after all the press Dean has gotten for the last 6 months, it's not name recognition.

[helleborient]

8. If you look at polls on name recognition...

Yes, that could be called a factor...I've not seen any polls lately with Kerry's better performance outside of the margin of error.

The way the process works...Kerry must appeal to Democrats first.

[sandnsea]

14. Yeah yeah yeah

I've been listening to 'name recognition' for months.

I don't know what kind of 'Democrats' Dean's bringing into the party with his Rockefeller Republican policies. Kerry appeals to Democrats, we'll see who turns out to vote.

[helleborient]

16. Yep, looking forward to the vote (n/t)

[Nazgul35]

9. He does best against Bush....

when 2/3rds of the public arn't even aware of who's running....Kerry and Lieberman are running on name recognition...if you notice, as the dates for the primaries gets closer, some candidates drop in the polls and others rise....and sorry, but Kerry is one of the droppers....Clark, Edwards and Dean all go up as they focus on those primaries and caucuses....

Besides, how's Kerry going to beat Bush after he uses up all his cash trying to win NH?!

Switch to Edwards or Clark, they've got a better chance than Kerry...

[sandnsea]

12. Edwards it is I guess

Dean's been dropping in Iowa, Clark's going nowhere, so I guess it's Edwards. Thanks for straightening that out!

[helleborient]

13. Dean is gaining....

In New Hampshire

In New York

In Connecticut

Picking up endorsements from members of congress in Oregon, Texas, and Virginia...including the CHAIR of the Congressional Black Caucus.

I love this downward slide!

[sandnsea]

15. First he goes up...

Then people get to know who he is... and then he goes down. Happened in Iowa and it'll happen in those other states too.

[helleborient]

17. You are making an awful lot of a 3-point within MOE drop...

In one poll in Iowa.

What about Kerry's drops across the country from where he was early in the year?

Oh, I already know that...it's the fault of Howard Dean and his collusion with the media.

[sandnsea]

19. Hey, I just posted a fun post

I thought people were allowed to post something positive about their candidate. I knew Deanie's don't like posts questioning his words, or his past policies, or his treatment of other candidates; but I didn't know I couldn't even post something positive about my own choice. Geesh.

And it wasn't one Iowa poll, by the way, it was every Iowa poll. And Kerry did have name recognition early on, Dean created a media stampede, that's wearing off and people are getting down to the business of electing a candidate. The polls will change, as we're clearly seeing with Edwards. But Kerry still does best against Bush, every time.

[sandnsea]

7. Sensitive?

What's the deal? I never said anybody was dumb.

[helleborient]

10. No, we're just asleep...

The post felt the need to wake us up. Sorry, I'm fully awake - that is exactly why I don't support Sen. Kerry.

If he learns how to campaign well, that may change. Long-winded policy statements coupled with the gimmicks of windsurfing, pheasant hunting, battleships and motorcycles doesn't make an outstanding candidate - Democrats across this country are telling him that.

Perhaps it's time for Sen. Kerry to wake up and listen to the Democratic Party.

[helleborient]

4. Noticing Clark's numbers as well name-recognition is a factor

I expect that both Lieberman and Kerry doing better against Bush could mostly be accounted for by familiarity.

It would be obvious that general voters in Connecticut are more familiar with Lieberman, their own senator and Kerry, the neighboring state's senator.

As the campaign proceeds, there is every reason to expect both Dean and Clark to make gains.

[CMT]

5. Actually they are all doing well vs. Bush

at this point in '99 Gore was 17-points behind Bush in Connecticut, now they all are within the moe. It is nice that Kerry is 1-point ahead but he is also from a neighboring state and is better known due to it.

[CMT]

11. Great news for Dean

Could Dean pull an upset and beat Lieberman in his own state? of course by the time Connecticut votes Lieberman may be out of the race.

[helleborient]

18. Deeper in this poll...good news for Dean!

Looking at little deeper at the results here...

In the race against Hillary, Dean, Gephardt and Edwards have gained since October...Kerry and Clark have lost ground.

When you look at age categories...Dean's support gets stronger the older the voters are. It is those older voters who turn out reliably.

Here on DU those who don't support Dean seem to consistently insist his chief base of support is with the under 25 crowd...this poll proves what we see at MeetUps across the country...Dean's support is particularly strong with those 30 and over, and in particular the elderly.

These people show up at MeetUps and there is no reason to expect they won't show up at the polls.