Dean Maintains Lead As Kerry Slips (ARG-NH Poll)

[dajabr]

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean is maintaining his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean continues to lead with 38%. Senator John Kerry, the only other candidate with double-digit preference, is at 17%. Ballot preference for Kerry has dropped from 24% in a survey two weeks ago. Dean also continues to lead in candidate favorability, with 71% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they have a favorable opinion of Dean.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 423 Democrats (71%) and 177 undeclared voters (29%). The interviews were conducted November 17 through 20, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Ballot preference for Dean is unchanged from two weeks ago, but ballot preference for Kerry has dropped to 17% from 24%.

More: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

[CMT]

1. Clark, Kucinich, Gep, and Lieberman

showed some gains. Clark going from 4% to 7%. DK from 1% to 3%, Gep from 3% to 4% and Lieberman from 4% to 5%

Continued good news for Dean though in NH, this is third poll this month to give him a better than 20-point edge.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Add those gains together...

And you come up with 7 points. The exact number that Kerry fell by.

[SahaleArm]

22. With Clark starting his NH ad blitz

And with the perception that the Kerry ship has stalled, I can see that gap closing with the possibility of Clark taking 2nd in NH.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

25. A second for Clark would be huge.

I think he's served well by third, considering his late start. I think Kerry will take second, and it'll be interesting to see who gets third. Clark or Edwards. A very important third, imo, as attention turns southward. A second for Clark would be as good as a win. I think that would be "The Story" in the press the next day.

[SahaleArm]

26. At this point what positives does the Kerry Campaign have?

He's fighting Dean, Geppy, Lieberman, and Clark. Kerry really needs to reinvigorate his campaign or he's in trouble. Look at WA state its Dean first with Clark second. Kerry has the politicians (Adam Smith) but not the people. I don't see Kerry people or signs anywhere; and almost no visibility at Democratic events.

And that's with an official campaign: http://www.johnkerry.com/states/wa/

I like Kerry and he would be my choice had Clark not entered the race, but the question remains, Where's Kerry?

[Zynx]

3. Kerry's favorability ratings are collapsing.

That's a sign he is in deep trouble.

[CMT]

4. favorability ratings

Dean 71-11 positive
Kerry 61-19 positive
Gephardt 50-20 positive
Clark 44-13 positive
Edwards 36-17 positive
Kucinich 20-18 positive
Braun 18-17 positive
Lieberman 34-35 negative
Sharpton 11-50 negative

[lancdem]

5. Dean's positives are incredible

Wow.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

6. That's impressive

Anyone remember the ranting here in the summer about Dean's favorability ratings in NH? The erstwhile prediction was that as people became more exposed to Dean, his favorability ratings would fall and he would drop in the polls. Oops.

[dajabr]

7. No one said that!

And even if you pull it from the archives, they'll deny it!

;-)

[LuminousX]

8. That's one of the reasons why I was forced to reconsider Dean

I was lead to believe by the reaction to Dean here on DU that he was too polarizing, that fundamentally people wouldn't like him once they got to know him.

New Hampshire throws that theory out the window. They know Dean not only as a Presidential candidate but also as a neighbor - and they still like him and show amazing support for him.

Landslide for Dean

[RevolutionStartsNow]

9. Were you hypnotized...

by those REALLY long posts about Dean, citing ultra-liberal media sources in Vermont, the ubiquitous Scott Huminski, and Dean-parody websites? I learned to scroll through those messages quickly, but I don't miss them. The best was the one that claimed that Vermont was a "police state" under Dean.

[LuminousX]

11. I just swore off Kool-aid for a week

Actually, it was the level of actual, palpable hatred towards Dean here. I figured that people within this forum on this website would have a clearer understanding of campaigning and what it takes to win elections. So I was shocked and stunned by the actual level of pure hate.

I see it now for what it was, fear. Fear of losing. And within a closed community like this, it is a fear of losing face. It causes people to escalate their emotions beyond logic, beyond all rational thought.

[lastliberalintexas]

13. I don't know that I'd call it fear

I'd say it's probably/hopefully just full and genuine support of another. I think that some supporters of other candidates are just so emotionally involved with their candidate's campaign that it is hard for them to see their person get beat. Most of the bile directed at Dean would have been directed at Kucinich or Braun or Edwards (you get the point) if they had Dean's polling up to this point. It's understandable, really, since they believe very strongly in their favorite. And some Dean supporters are this way too, btw. (And I might very well feel this way if Dean were trailing in the polls, too. I'll only find that our if things change dramatically in the near future.)

OTOH, I think the people who truly hate Dean (rather than just hate him b/c he is the frontrunner beating their favorite) is a very small number. About the same as the number of people who truly despise Kerry, Clark, Gephardt, etc. Maybe Lieberman is the only one who has an entire cadre of actual loathers- but even then, it's mostly directed at him for his foreign policy stands, or else by people who don't know his actual record on many domestic issues.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

14. I think you're right...

outside of DU, our challenge is not to win over the few haters but to win over the many apathetic.

[KaraokeKarlton]

19. The opposite is actually true

The majority of the people on this site assume that the general population thinks like they do, and that's not the case at all. There are a few registered Independents who post here who are essentially the very type of swing voters many posts on here try to analyze and predict what they will and won't like. They are almost never right about what I think or like. I never voted in a primary before, and Howard Dean has my vote. I love his assertiveness and occassionaly political incorrectness. It makes him human...more like me. He can win over swing voters easily. It's such a shame more members here aren't able to see that.

[MrPeepers]

24. Not able to see?

Maybe we just don't like what we see. I think it's a shame that when people disagree with others, they assume it is out of an inability to comprehend rather than a genuine disagreement.

peepers

[MrPeepers]

23. Fear? Not hardly.

The reason I so vehemently and emotionally oppose Dean is not out of fear. I find that a little insulting. The reason I oppose him is because I honestly don't think he's what's best for the United States, and I'm not convinced he has a chance against Bush, and I'm not happy with either of those things. What causes me to escalate my emotions IS rational thought and logic, not the lack thereof. I think about Dean's political experiance. I think about his stances on the issues. I think that I do not want to see Dean as the democratic candidate. It's that simple, that logical. Why do people jump up and down and scream about Kerry's IWR vote? About Clark "being a Republican?" Is that out of fear too? It bothers me when many Dean people, when their candidate is getting attacked, immediately make some comment about someone getting desperate or whatever. Maybe, just MAYBE, people have legitimate problems with some of the things their candidate has said and done. Maybe people have legitimate concerns about his treatment of Gay Rights or the Environment. Maybe people have legitimate concerns about the flag comments or whatever of the other issues that have been brought up. The point is this - nobody is perfect. Dean is not perfect. I just happen to think he's less perfect that other people, and I don't think so out of fear.

Peepers

[Upfront]

17. Luminousx

You inpress me. As a Dean supporter from early on, welcome. We need you, and others like you. Face facts Democrats, it is Dean!

[helleborient]

12. Like it has been for months...

The people who know Howard Dean the best in the country like him better than any other candidate!

[Bucky]

18. Good for him. Still, I'm fearful of his candidacy

He's going gangbusters in New Hampshire. He's doing great and I commend him on a job well done. That said, I still am extremely anxious at the thought of a Dean nomination. I just don't think that he's going to translate well down here in the South. I fear he's going to get us slaughtered and that his appeal in the general election will only be a regional appeal.

The Party faithful who are comfortable with harsh anti-Bush rhetoric may love the dickens out of him. I'm not sure that the rank and file swing voters in Pittsburgh, or the professional in Dade County, or the Jesse Ventura voter in St Paul, or the Reagan Democrat in West Virginia, or the harried single mom in New Mexico, or the assembly worker in Pontiac, is going to fall in love with an upper-crusty, cantakerous New Englander who's only governed a bread and breakfast state a little bit smaller than the size of Chicago's suburbs.

I'm not anti-Dean, but as a southerner, I'm extremely pessimistic about what he'll do to the party's geographic appeal.

[pruner]

20. Dean is currently 2nd in North Carolina behind Edwards

Dean's at 25%, and he & Edwards are the only candidates in double digits.

[KaraokeKarlton]

21. Dean will do just fine in the south

The only reason Democrats haven't done well in the south is because too many have written it off and given up. Dean won't do that. They will listen to him and hear him out if he shows that he is interested in talking to them. If they listen, he will win many southerners over. I don't see any of the others doing better than Dean in the south because most of them aren't even bothering to campaign in the south beyond South Carolina. Dean is going right into the heart of Republican territory and making his pitch directly to the people. That's why he's going to do well there. Have some faith. Southerners aren't really any different than people in the north. We all want good jobs, health care, a piece of the American dream, good schools and a better life for our kids. There is plenty of common ground to be found if someone took the time to talk about it. Dean does that.

[dfong63]

10. incredible performance by Dean

[Renew Deal]

15. huh

He is flat?

[CMT]

16. yes

but he is 21-points ahead and has the highest postive rating of the bunch.