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CTLawGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 12:31 PM
Original message
Why Dean can win the general election
There are two halves to this game called an election: building/finding support (nearly two years), and getting the support to the polls (election day and the 3 days prior). Both these activities are equally important.

A lot of people believe Dean cannot win becuase they neglect the importance of voter turnout in the outcome of an election. If your candidate has the support of 90% of the people, but none of them vote on election day, then you lose to the guy with 10% support.

The judge of who is "electable" should not be who can win the support of swing voters, but who can excite enough of their supporters to vote.

According to the first definition of "electable", Lieberman is most electable, he is the most moderate. Lieberman is unabashed in his support of the Iraq war, he likes some of Bush's tax cuts, he voted for the Patriot Act, he wears his religion on his sleeve.

So, in theory, he's going to beat Bush, right? I argue he would not. This is becuase the Democrats will loathe a choice between two people who supported the patriot Act, who both like the Iraq War, who both mix religion and politics, who both like Bush's tax cuts. Democrats would be unexcited to vote, and indpendents would find the race uninteresting. On the other hand, Republicans would be excited that politicians are talking about their issues, and they would vote for Bush, the real thing, rather than Lieberman.

It's so easy not to vote in this country. Election Day is a workday, voting is not cumpulsory, there's soccer practice, ballet practice, you're too tired, you don't know where your polling place is, AND you are one out of 100 million votes. Even if you DID go vote, there is also Ralph Nader, who could fill in as the candidate you wish was in the "D" slot.

I predict Lieberman would lose becuase Dems would stay home or vote for Nader en Masse. This would mirror what happened in 2002. Late polls showed Dems competing in senate races in GA, MO, NH. However, on election Day, Dems lost big in all those states. Why? in NH, Jeanne Shaheen said she supported Bush's tax cuts, would have voted for the War - and she loses. Jean Carnahan votes for the war and tax cuts - loses. Max Cleland, the good and decent man he is, still voted for the tax cuts and war. Democrats stayed home. Independents saw no reason to vote for the Dem. Republicans were excited by the tax cuts and the war.

On the opposite end, Mary Landrieu was in trouble until she began to criticize bush over the Sugar Importation issue. (Louisiana has a big sugar industry) When she stood up to bush, she came back and beat Suzanne Haik Terrell in the runoff. the sugar issue excited Democrats who were happy someone cared about them and their issues.

What does this mean for Howard Dean? Howard Dean is not afraid to stand up for Democratic ideas and values. He discusses what Democrats want talked about. He opposed the war (so did Kucinich) he wants to repeal ALL the tax cuts, and he wants the unconstitutional provisions of the Patriot Act gone. Dean is exciting people, he's bring those Dems that stayed home in 2002 back into the process. Though he may not get those 5% of swing voters, you can guarantee that almost every one of his supporters will go to the polls and proudly vote for him in 2004.

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cavebat2000 Donating Member (347 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
1. You should clarify
Edited on Sat Nov-22-03 12:44 PM by cavebat2000
In 2004, every DEMOCRAT will vote for him, because Democrats truely care about our country's well being, and want bush out. Any democrat not voting for the democrat in this election should be ashamed. Now I hate Kerry, and I pretty much dislike Gep. But I sure as hell will vote for them over GW.

Good Luck to all the Candidates, and may the best one win.
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UrbScotty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
2. ANYONE can beat Bush!
He's that bad a President. Maybe not enough people realize this yet, but most of those who haven't woken up, will. Even Lieberman would have a good chance.
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DrFunkenstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. Do You Actually Believe This?
Do you think he is just going to sit on top of that mountain of contributions he's going to raise? Or that he won't use the bully pulpit for free knocks to his opponents?

This is going to be a long, hard slog of a general election.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
3. If you're polarizing, you get the other side just as excited too.
Edited on Sat Nov-22-03 01:52 PM by AP
Dem victories in LA, and the closeness of the FL race had a lot to do with the fact that black voters on the economic margins are terrified by Bush. They realize how polarizing his policies are.

Dean could potentially totally polarize the electorate and get out the vote of RW'ers who are afraid that being soft on Iraq means he's a threat to national security, and who think that he's going to be responsible for a decay in the moral fibre of America.

You have to excite people, including your base, but you have to do it in a way which isn't polarizing.
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 04:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. great post!!!
:toast:
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 04:58 PM
Response to Original message
5. Democratic Values
All candidates want the unconstitutional portions of the Constitution repealed.

Democrats will want traditional Democratic values upheld, like making the rich pay their fair share of taxes, always have, always will. They want gun safety legislation, it has support from 65% of Democrats. Mainstream Democrats want a President strong on defense who is willing to do something about dictators like Saddam Hussein who experts said had WMD. They just expect a President with diplomatic ability to engage the world, gain UN support, and only go to war as a last resort. And they don't want Democrats to ignore god, guns, and gays (and racism) in order to pander to Republican voters.

If you want to talk about getting out the vote, Howard Dean is not the one who is going to excite the core of the Democratic party.
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Upfront Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Tell You What
I think I am core Democrat and Dean is the only candidate in years that makes me want to do all I can to elect him. This man has demostrated he has the balls to stand and fight. Give me anger Dr. Dean. I am angery to. I am so sick of Dean bashing I could puke. Go ahead fools, keep it up, elect Bush**
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. what does "bashing" Dean
have to do with electing Bush?
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-22-03 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Fight for what?
I don't see how any Democrat can look at what he did and said in Vermont and find anything to fight for. The sixties are over, if you missed it, too bad. The bulk of the American population aren't angry and certainly don't want a revolution. They want a real President who will keep the country safe from terrorists, get the economy going and provide health care that doesn't bankrupt the country. Howard Dean can't do any of that and even if Deanie's don't see it, the rest of the country will.
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Padraig18 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-23-03 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. More unsupported generalities.
for once, I'd like to see some proof to back up your attacks on Gov. Dean--- you know, like links, evidence and so on... :eyes:
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-23-03 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Here's a few things
Dean Ducked Troops Question. " repeatedly declined to say whether he thinks the United States should withdraw its troops immediately from Iraq, as some vocal war opponents urge. Responding to questions before and during the event, Dean declined to call for the troops’ return, saying he didn’t know the implications for geopolitics and soldiers’ safety and wasn’t privy to intelligence on the ground in Iraq. ‘I didn’t get us into this,’ Dean said. ‘Unfortunately, I’m not president now and I can’t get us out of this.’" (Joanna Weiss, "Dean Ducks Prescription For Quitting Iraq," The Boston Globe, 3/27/03)

FLIP: Dean Then Berated Bush For Suggesting American Troops Could Come In 18 Months. "If the President thinks our troops will be out in 18 months, he is smoking something he forgot about when he was at Yale." (Rebecca Cook, "Howard Dean Rallies Supporters In Seattle," The Associated Press, 5/15/03)

FLOP: Dean Said U.S. Should Not Pull Troops Out Of Iraq. "We can’t leave Iraq. We can’t pull out, because if we do that, chaos ensues or else a fundamentalist Shiite regime may arise with undo Iranian influence, both of which would be more dangerous than Saddam Hussein." (Howard Dean On CNN’s "Crossfire Goes Inside Politics," 9/1/03)

FLIP: Only Three Days Later: In Debate, Dean Said Our Troops Should Come Home From Iraq. "We need more troops. They’re going to be foreign troops, as they should have been in the first place, not American troops. Ours need to come home." (Democrat Presidential Candidates Debate, Albuquerque, NM, 9/4/03) FLOP: Now Dean Says Just Some Troops Should Come Home. "Ultimately, over a period of time, assuming you can get the cooperation of the Europeans and others, I would like to reduce by half the number of troops the Americans have in Iraq and increase dramatically so that we get up to a troop strength of between 170,000 and 200,000 in Iraq." (NBC’s "Today Show," 9/8/03)

DEAN FLIP-FLOPPED ON PUBLIC FINANCING OF HIS 2004 CAMPAIGN Summer 2003 Public Financing Flip-Flop: Dean "backed away from his pledge to adhere to spending limits, saying some advisers want to explore opting out of the Watergate-era public financing system because of his sudden fund-raising success. … ‘Could we change our mind? Sure,’ he said. … "Dean signed a letter to the promising to abide by the program’s rules, including its spending limits." (Ron Fournier, "Dean Pulls Back On Spending Limits Pledge," The Associated Press, 8/15/03)

DEAN ALSO FLIP-FLOPPED ON PUBLIC FINANCING OF HIS 2000 CAMPAIGN! July 2000 Public Financing Flip: "Gov. Howard Dean is challenging his Republican opponents to accept a $300,000 campaign spending cap even if a federal judge overturns the limit. … ‘This law is important in restoring public faith in the election process,’ Dean said in a prepared statement. ‘Vermonters need to know that their small donations are just as important as a $1,000 check from a multi-national corporation or PAC (political action committee).’ Dean said he was at a financial disadvantage, first because he had a lower spending limit as an incumbent, but also because he faced two challengers who were likely to have at least $300,000 apiece." ("Dean Challenges Republicans To Spending Limits," The Associated Press, 7/21/00) August 2000 Public Financing Flop: "Gov. Howard Dean abandoned public funding for his re-election campaign, saying he couldn’t take the chance he would be outspent 4-1 by his Republican opponent. Publicly financed campaigns were part of strict campaign finance reform legislation championed by Dean, who signed it into law in 1997. … Progressive Party gubernatorial candidate Anthony Pollina, the only candidate now using public funding, criticized Dean’s decision. ‘I am not surprised. In some way it shows his true colors,’ Pollina said. ‘Ultimately, it’s a victory for big money and bad for average citizens.’" (Wilson Ring, "Governor Abandons Public Funding," The Associated Press, 8/18/00)

DEAN FLIP-FLOPPED ON YUCCA MOUNTAIN 1996 Governor Dean Yucca Mountain Flip: "I am urging you to support changes in the Nuclear Waste Policy Act that would ensure that the federal government meets its responsibility to electricity consumers to begin accepting spent fuel from commercial power plants in 1998. … Opponents assert that the shipment of nuclear waste is highly unsafe, but the facts prove otherwise. Over the past 30 years, more than 2000 shipments of spent nuclear fuel have been made on the nation’s highways and railways. No shipment has ever resulted in a release of radioactivity or public harm. … I sincerely hope you will support S. 1271 to establish an integrated spent fuel management program that includes a centralized, interim storage facility, continued site characterization of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada, and an appropriate transportation system to move spent fuel." (Gov. Howard Dean, Letter To Sen. Patrick Leahy, 5/1/96) 2003 Candidate Dean Yucca Mountain Flop:

REPORTER: "As governor, you supported a plan to store the nation’s waste at Yucca Mountain, Nev. Do you still think this is a good solution?" DEAN: "As governor of Vermont, it was a grand idea because it would get the waste out of Vermont. But now that I’m running for president, I’ve got to reassess it and see what the science looks like." (Amanda Griscom, "Q&A: Howard Dean On The Environment," Alternet Website, www.alternet.org, Accessed 6/4/03)

DEAN FLIP-FLOPPED ON FEDERAL MEDICAL LIABILITY REFORM 1994 Federal Medical Liability Reform Flip: DEAN: "We’ve absolutely got to have malpractice reform. Absolutely. And I think it ought to be done at the federal level. In fact, that’s- I think all 50 governors think that." (CNN’s "Viewers Call In With Health Care Questions," 7/18/94) 2002 Federal Medical Liability Reform Flop:

DEAN: "As a doctor, I’d love to have all kinds of malpractice reform. That is not the federal government’s business. This administration, for all its talk about states’ prerogatives and local control, doesn’t believe in it. They simply substituted conservative micromanagement for what used to be liberal micromanagement. It’s like gun control. That is a state matter, not a federal matter." (CNN’s "Capital Gang," 10/5/02)

DEAN FLIP-FLOPPED ON RETIREMENT AGE 1995 Governor Dean Retirement Age Flip: DEAN: "Secondly, I am very pleased to hear Bob Packwood because I absolutely agree we need to … increase the retirement age. There will be cuts and losses of some benefits, but I believe that Senator Packwood is on exactly the right track. … " (CNN’s "Crossfire," 2/28/95)

2003 Candidate Dean Retirement Age Flop: RUSSERT: "Would you raise retirement age to 70?" DEAN: "No. No." (NBC’s "Meet The Press," 6/22/03)

DEAN FLIP-FLOPPED ON CUTTING SOCIAL SECURITY 1995 Governor Dean Social Security Flip: "The way to balance the budget, Dean said, is for Congress to cut Social Security, move the retirement age to 70, cut defense, Medicare and veterans pensions, while the states cut almost everything else. ‘It would be tough but we could do it,’ he said." (Miles Benson, "And Politicians Wonder Why They Aren’t Trusted," Times-Picayune , 3/5/95)

2003 Candidate Dean Social Security Flop: RUSSERT: "But you would no longer cut Social Security benefits?" DEAN: "But you don’t--no. I’m not ever going to cut Social Security benefits." (NBC’s "Meet The Press," 6/22/03)
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helleborient Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #11
18. And if Kerry is a great candidate...where's the support??
It's certainly not the fault of that media putting him on the front page of US Today.
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. The media already did its work against Kerry.
Every now and then they'll pretend that they haven't been biased.
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helleborient Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. Uh huh...
And if he comes back and is splashed across magazine covers?

Hmmm...will probably be that evil media making amends....or maybe, it's those renegade media that actually like Kerry...

This argument didn't work months ago...and it's just as dumb now.

No proof...no real study of what Kerry's coverage was like back when he was frontrunner...just a disgruntled supporter looking to cover up the missteps in Kerry's own campaign.

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helleborient Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #5
17. Which other candidate is exciting the core????
Certainly no one else currently in the race.
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. is it the core, though?
I've seen a lot of posts on here about how Dean is bringing in Republicans, independant, and first time voters. People who haven't been a part of the Democartatic constituency.

This is a good thing, but it isn't the core.

Dean has a solid base of support, but it is by no means a majority of the party - and I'm not convinced it's even the "core" of the party.
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helleborient Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. Most polls show him leading among liberals...
And leading strongly among the elderly...I haven't seen ethnic breakdowns, but liberals and the elderly are typically considered part of the core.
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-23-03 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
12. I think a Christmas tree could beat Bu$h
Edited on Sun Nov-23-03 12:12 PM by GreenPartyVoter
My own gut instinct says that Dean is the most "electable". However I really do believe Dennis could win because folks are really ready for a change.

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lastliberalintexas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-23-03 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. I agree
So long as the candidate runs a good campaign and we get turnout as high as possible for Dem/independent voters, even if that candidate is a Christmas tree. After all, the Christmas tree would still be the more articulate of the 2. :-)


And for darboy- I am pretty sure that Lieberman voted against the Shrub tax cuts. I know there are plenty of things with which to disagree with him on, but I don't think that's one of them! He's actually fairly moderately left on most domestic issues.
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-23-03 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Here's how
political compass graphed the candidates:


Lieberman comes up slightly south of Edwards and therefore slightly more liberal. (Of course Dennis is the only real old-fashioned liberal in the 1960s sense who is running. He's over by where Ghandi ranks. :^))

http://www.digitalronin.f2s.com/politicalcompass/usprimaries.html
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lastliberalintexas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-23-03 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Yes, I've seen that test
I am actually off the charts, so to speak- like a -9.4 on the authoritarian axis and a -9.7 on the economic axis. I didn't take it again today, so I don't know exactly what my scores were, but those numbers are close.

While I can't stand Lieberman's foreign pilicy positions, I usually end up defending him on domestic issues. And I even defended Miller until he actually came out and endorsed Shrub. I still believe (almost) any D is important for caucasing purposes, if for nothing else!

And I love Kucinich. If he doesn't get the nomination this time, I'd love to see him run for Senator, get a little more of the traditional experience expected of Presidents and then try again. After 8 years of Dean, that is!
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-23-03 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Yeah
I'm past Dennis too on that grid, but not so far as you. :^)

I think maybe the USA would be ready for Dennis after 8 years of Howard. Of course I think they NEED him NOW. But, I'll take him later rather than not at all.
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jiacinto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
22. You overestimate cocnern over the Patriot
With the exception of a few extremist left wing activists very few people really care about the Patriot Act.
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CTLawGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-24-03 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. well im concerned about it
and if people knew about it they would care.
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