Kerry surges in IA

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In a poll conducted by Survey USA for WHO-TV 13 in Des Moines, Iowa, released this afternoon, John Kerry has jumped a dramatic 9 percentage points from the last poll done by the station in October.

Kerry now TIES Dick Gephardt for second place, narrowing Howard Dean’s lead to only 7 points in a poll with a margin of error of 5%.

You can find the complete results at: http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html



:toast:

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Still, Iowa voters has been completely turned off

by the Frankenstein appearance of Kerry and his obnoxious behavior last night - kept interrupting Dean like a jackass.

I wish Kerry will just close up his campaign, and simply go away. His campaign is on the downward spiral, and the TV polls are freepable anyway. The actual polls are showing Dean with a decent lead in Iowa, NH, and 2nd in SC, with momentum growing down there.. This man is unstoppable!

Hawkeye-X

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. Says you? lol

[CMT]

2. good news for both Kerry and Dean

Dean also surged nine-points since the last poll going from 22% to 31% going from second to first, while Gep fell from 27 to 26%. But I agree Kerry's only two-points behind Gep in a state where Gephardt must win.

p.s.
if you include all the candidates here are the results:
Dean: 32%
Gep: 22%
Kerry: 19%
Edwards 11%
Clark 3%
Kucinich 3%
Sharpton 2%
Lieberman 1%
Mosley Braun 1%

http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031121demcaucus.pdf

[helleborient]

3. Good news for Kerry and Dean, but some comments about poll..

First, it does look like they only included Kerry, Dean, Gephardt, and Edwards as candidates..the remaining total is undecided.

Also, the poll does show Gephardt 2 percentage points ahead of Kerry for second place...which is tied in MOE, but 2nd for the poll.

I do wish they had included a bit more info. on how the sample was selected as well, since 5% is a fairly large margin of error. When you click further, they do give info. on their selection, but it's not specific to the individual poll.

All things considered, though, this is right in line with the most recent poll that showed Dean opening a clear lead over Gephardt and Kerry battling Gephardt for 2nd place.

[BJ]

5. I've been called by "polling" organizations.

They have only asked about Gephardt, Kerry, Dean and Edwards. Then they asked very leading questions supposedly based on position statements and I was supposed to agree or disagree that it sounded like one of the above mentioned candidates.

[AP]

7. That might be a campaign poll rather than a general poll.

That might have been for a candidate who was trying to decide which issues to use to promote himself, hurt his opponent, rather than a poll trying to guage where the public was at right at that moment.

[paulk]

6. I think it's the same poll

as "the most recent poll that showed Dean opening a clear lead over Gephardt and Kerry battling Gephardt for 2nd place."

My understanding is that the pollsters use an automatic phone based polling system, with only 418 participants. The MOE is 5%. The methodology is suspect - although previous polls by the same company have been ahead of the curve.

The reason there's only four is that it was done in two rounds - as a way of "mimicking" the actual caucus. Which is wierd, because under the caucus rules, Edwards votes we have to be redistributed (under 15%).

I don't know how much faith to put in this poll. There are some more credible polls coming out in the next few weeks that should give a clearer picture.

[DrFunkenstein]

8. Where Do Edwards Votes Go?

Considering that Edwards and Kerry have been almost identical lately (possible ticket?), my guess is most will go to Kerry. If they are Iowa people and not already for Gephardt, I have a feeling they won't be turned over.

[paulk]

10. that's been my Surprize! Kerry second place scenario all along

Keep your fingers crossed!

[helleborient]

11. Polling is a very flawed way of mimicking the caucus...

Since at the caucus people are face to face and are talking and working things out with neighbors and friends. The poll is faceless.

[paulk]

13. I agree

it's one of the reasons I don't put much faith in this poll.

[dfong63]

9. cool, Kerry has surged to 3rd place

[NewYorkerfromMass]

12. No, but he's increased his level of support by well over 50%

it is a huge surge. He has always been 3rd.