William Greider: Why I'm for Dean (from The Nation)

[dajabr]

First, the rivals saw him as a McGovernite lefty from the 1960s. When that didn't take, they decided to depict him as a right-wing clone of Newt Gingrich who wants to dismantle Medicare and Social Security. Finally, opponents sold political reporters on the story of Mr. Malaprop, an oddball from tiny, liberal Vermont so insensitive to the nuances of American politics his mouth will destroy him. Howard Dean surged ahead through all this. The other candidates and witting collaborators in the press got him wrong every time.

Howard Dean is an odd duck, certainly, in the milieu of the contemporary Democratic Party. He is, I surmise, a tough and savvy politician of the old school--a shrewd, intuitive pol who develops his own sense of where the people are and where events are likely to take public opinion, then has the guts to act on his perceptions. That approach--leading, it's called--seems dangerously unscientific in this era of high-quality polling and focus groups, the data interpreted for politicians by expensive consultants. The press corps has not had much experience with Democrats of this type, so reporters read Dean's style as emotional, possibly a character flaw. He reminds me of olden days when Democrats were a more contentious bunch, always fighting noisily among themselves and often with creative results.

The ubiquitous "party sources" have explained that Dean merely caught a lucky break by declaring early and forcefully against the war on Iraq at a time when Americans were overwhelmingly prowar. Who knew things might change? The doctor knew.

A more pertinent question is, Why didn't other leading candidates see this tragedy coming? Their reticence was symptomatic of the inert Washington insiders, exceedingly cautious, indifferent to whatever roils the party's rank and file, and always a few steps behind the curve. The explanation that Washington candidates voted for the war on principle or were misled by Bush doesn't help them. Their blindness to the potential consequences (now unfolding) is another reason to be for Dean. He, meanwhile, speaks plainly to the error of US imperialism. "America is not Rome. We do not dream of empire. We dream of liberty for all."

More: http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi=20031215&s=greider

[LuminousX]

1. Terrific write up

I can see how others will take these words and use them against Dean, but that can't be helped. Here is one person's clear cut reason for supporting Dean.

[dajabr]

2. Yes it is...

Greider "gets it."

[blm]

3. Dean lifted that Roman refernce from Kerry's foreign policy speech.

Too bad Greider didn't do his homework regarding Dean's support of use of force in Biden-Lugar which wasn't that far off from the IWR that he attacks others for supporting.

Sorry, William, you bought into the media line that Dean was antiwar.

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[helleborient]

5. Comparing the U.S. to the Roman Empire is far from unique...

And certainly isn't Kerry's intellectual property.

This is a comparison that has gone on for decades.

[Scott Lee]

23. But that won't stop Kerry from trying to steal it (he's done this before)

[blm]

32. You have never had the facts straight. Dean stole from Kerry on this.

Just as he did the enviro speech.

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LuminousX]

6. About Rome

%3BLC%3A%23C0C0C0%3BLH%3A66%3BBGC%3A%23000000%3BAH%3Aleft%3BVLC%3A%23808080%3BGL%3A2%3BAWFID%3A839bc56372c17295%3B&domains=stygianlabyrinth.net&q=%22America+is+not+Rome.+We+do+not+dream+of+empire.+We+dream+of+liberty+for+all.%22&sa=Google+Search&sitesearch=">Google Search

I'm sure John Kerry mentioned it. Who wouldn't when discussing imperial policy? But that line is consistently attributed to Dean. Is it a direct 'theft of quote' or was the quote massaged, altered enough to appear unique?

on edit: prettified the link

[LuminousX]

7. Here we go... a comparison

Kerry:

Not since the age of the Romans have one people achieved such preeminence. But we are not Romans; we do not seek an empire. We are Americans, trustees of a vision and a heritage that commit us to the values of democracy and the universal cause of human rights. So while we can be proud, we must be purposeful and mindful of our principles: And we must be patient - aware that there is no such thing as the end of history. With great power, comes grave responsibility.

Dean:

I believe that Americans are ready to restore the best traditions of American leadership, leadership in which our power is multiplied by the appeal of democratic ideals and the knowledge that our country is a force for law around the world and not a law unto itself. America became America by rebelling against an imperial power. America emerged from isolation to greatness by beating fascist power. America became synonymous with justice by supporting independence for colonies in an imperial world. America's ideals triumphed when it confronted communism to the point of extinction. America is not Rome. We do not dream of empire. We dream of liberty for all.

I think they are different enough that they could be arrived at seperately but I'm a cynic at heart and choose to believe such a thing was cribbed. It is a good message. One of these is easily remembered and repeated. The other is ponderous. One of these campaigns has a great writer, the other has a great editor.

[blm]

21. You forgot to add the dates, L__X

and you also forgot to factor in that Kerry has worked actively in this area for over 30 years, while Dean has only recently considered foreign policy and notes that he'll have a staff to deal with it...just like George Bush.

Big difference, my friend. Big difference.

[LuminousX]

26. Sorry, I thought it was a given in my post

that Kerry's statements came first. And if Dean's campaign cribbed them, they did a lot better job in putting it in soundbite format.

[Larkspur]

8. Gee, I thought that it was a lesson our Founding Fathers wanted us to

learn.

Maybe Kerry cribbed off our Founding Fathers, but it doesn't matter that Kerry and Dean used this idiom, it originally came from the concepts of democracy that our Founding Fathers and Mothers left us.

[dajabr]

14. Kerry: So concerned about Rome...

And yet, so oblivious to the existence of PNAC.

I wonder if Kerry's had Bill Kristol to the 21 Club lately for cocktails?

[blm]

22. I dunno. Let's see if Toby Moffett knows.

You know Toby, Dean's advisor, don't you? The one who lobbies for corporations who want to do business in Iraq. He was VP at Monsanto. His partner is Bob Livingston (R-pervert).

[ulysses]

9. Excellent.

Greider, huh? That adds no small amount of weight.

:thumbsup:

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ulysses]

20. well, damn

I get a deleted response and I'm not even here to see it...

[displacedvermoter]

40. I got the deleted reply

cause I said that certain folks wouldn't accept an endorsment of Howard Dean from anyone -- I said the spirits of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and FDR -- without saying it was the result of ther endorser being "duped"!

Seems strange that if you refer to someone by their DU Name, even if that person has made it a nearly full-time job to do jump on threads to attack candidiates, your message gets deleted. I mean, the various serial candidiate attackers -- of all stripes -- are pretty well know hereabouts!

[burr]

11. Necne Romani?

you'll love the new book I'm writing...if I can ever get it published. Thankfully, I have a close friend, another writer to help me find all my comman splices and other frequent grammer problems.

[DrFunkenstein]

12. Greider Should Have Dug A Little Deeper

I'm surprised that The Nation has gotten behind Dean so strongly. I have yet to hear it from Katrina or David Corn, who are the reasons I subscribe. Anyone know where they stand?

PS - How's this for Pax Romani:

"We should be proud: Not since the age of the Romans have one people achieved such preeminence.

But we are not Romans; we do not seek an empire. We are Americans, trustees of a vision and a heritage that commit us to the values of democracy and the universal cause of human rights. So while we can be proud, we must be purposeful and mindful of our principles: And we must be patient - aware that there is no such thing as the end of history." - John Kerry 1/23/03

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/speeches/spc_2003_0123.html

PS - I am shocked that they would support anyone so pro-Sharon/AIPAC.

[CTLawGuy]

13. are you talking about..

the same "pro-Sharon", "AIPAC guy" that Lieberman criticized for saying the US should not favor either Israel or Palestine?

i get confused sometimes

[DrFunkenstein]

16. You're Probably Thinking Of This Guy

In November, Dean paid his first-ever visit to Israel on an excursion that was organized and paid for by AIPAC. He was apparently unperturbed at his sponsors’ close ties to a government that engages in a pattern of gross and systematic human rights violations and blatantly violates a series of UN Security Council resolutions and other international legal principles. During his visit, Dean did not meet with any Palestinian leaders or any Israeli moderates.

http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0226-04.htm

Dean believes the Bush administration should be giving Israel $4 billion in military aid to fight terrorism, not the $1 billion it proposed last month.

http://www.jewishsf.com/bk030418/us02.shtml

Last December, Dean told the Jerusalem Post that he unequivocally supported $8 Billion in US loan guarantees for Israel. "I believe that by providing Israel with the loan guarantees...the US will be advancing its own interest," he said. His unconditional support for the loan package, in addition to $4 Billion in outright grants, went further than even some of the most pro-Israel elements in the Bush administration, like Paul Wolfowitz, who wanted to at least include some vague restrictions like pushing Israel to curtail new settlements and accept a timetable to establish a Palestinian state.

http://www.muslimwakeup.com/mainarchive/000119.html

<>

[dajabr]

15. Katrina is Pro-Dean

Check her web-log.

Corn? Not sure.

[DrFunkenstein]

17. I Don't See Anything Resembling an Endorsement

The closest I found was this:

http://www.thenation.com/edcut/index.mhtml?pid=1060

It defends Dean, but it isn't exactly pro-Dean. I respect her tremendously, and if you find something where she thinks he's the one, I will be very, very impressed. The same goes for Corn.

Of all the writers out there, they seem to most consistently represent my feelings, only a thousand times more intelligently. I thought they would be natural Kerry supporters, because they know the depth of his commitment to multilateralism and the progressive cause, but I'm guessing that the IWR scared them off (although Corn clearly seems more interested in the future of Iraq than the past in hs latest article). I guess we'll have to see.

[madfloridian]

18. This part I like.

SNIP..."First, the rivals saw him as a McGovernite lefty from the 1960s. When that didn't take, they decided to depict him as a right-wing clone of Newt Gingrich who wants to dismantle Medicare and Social Security. Finally, opponents sold political reporters on the story of Mr. Malaprop, an oddball from tiny, liberal Vermont so insensitive to the nuances of American politics his mouth will destroy him. Howard Dean surged ahead through all this. The other candidates and witting collaborators in the press got him wrong every time...."

[PSU84]

19. Electoral Math: Why Dean Can't Win

The electoral match is pretty bleak for any Democrat - and worse in
2004 than in 2000 because the results of the 2000 census moved
several votes from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and the
West. Nevertheless, there would be significantly fewer states "in
play" with Dean as the Democratic candidate than there would be if
Clark were the nominee. By my count, Bush starts off with 129
electoral votes from states that are "reliably red" and is likely to
win another 108 electoral votes from states that "lean red". That
adds up to 237 electoral votes. Either Dean or Clark (or Kerry or
Gephardt) is likely to start off with 76 electoral votes from states
that are "basically blue." There are another 125 electoral votes in
states that tend to "lean blue." That adds up to 196 electoral votes
that might reasonably to be expected to go to a Democrat if he or she
runs a strong campaign and Bush is still fighting a hopeless war in
Iraq. That leaves only 100 electoral votes that are pretty much "up
for grabs":

Illinois 21
Michigan 17
Missouri 11
Ohio 20
Penna. 21
Wisconsin 10

I think MO is really only in play for Gephardt or Clark. So, that
leads to this scenario:

Dean is sure to lose:

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Virginia 13
Wyoming 3

Total 248
Need to win 270

And so, Bush wins if he carries any 2 of the states that are up for
grabs. But, if Clark is the nominee, the following states are likely
to go from likely wins for Bush back into the "up for grabs" column:

Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Missouri 11
North Carolina 15
Tennessee 11
Virginia 13

Total 119

Clark puts at least two western states, two border states, and
possibly as many as six southern states in play, while Dean has a
realistic chance of turning no more than two of these states - CO and
maybe MO over to the blue column. In other words, Dean starts off
with at most 201 electoral votes to Bush's 248 with only 89 seriously
in play for both of them. Clark would not lose any state that Dean
would win, giving him tha same 201 electoral votes leaning his way
and as many as 208 more in play. Dean starts at such a huge
electoral disadvantage relative to Bush that he MUST win Pennsylvania
AND Illinois AND Ohio AND either Wisconsin or Michigan, or he must
win Wisconsin AND Michigan AND Illinois AND Pennsylvania.

Dean simply cannot win. Clark can.

[9119495]

27. You have suspicious calculations

First off, IL is solidly Dem and MI is certainly leaning blue. Arizona is considered in play by many and it has elected numerous Dems in its most recent statewide races. Thus, with just Arizona hypothetically switching, Bush looks less and less sure of victory--even if you move OH and MO to Bush. Recalculate and repost.

Also NH is a maybe with Dean (even though its only three votes, they still count).

I think Bush will carry his states solidly, but Dems will tend to win theirs by smaller margins. I think there is a good chance that any Dem that wins may win only the electoral vote--how sweet would that be?

[PSU84]

30. electoral math

Better than nominating Dean and hoping that you are right about IL and MI, I'd rather nominate Clark and win.

Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Ashcroft = Famine, Pestilence, War, Death

[DemDogs]

34. Edwards is the winner

This analysis is interesting but two things are wrong. One is that you leave out Edwards. The second is that you assume Clark wins states that require solid and vigorous black votes and Clark has shown no ability to attract black votes, so I am dubious about his chances in Southern and border states.

So let's do your analysis for Edwards. You start with 100 electoral votes that are pretty much "up for grabs" (you probably should have Iowa and New Mexico on this list, too -- they were really narrow margins for Gore in 2000):

Illinois 21
Michigan 17
Missouri 11
Ohio 20
Penna. 21
Wisconsin 10

Now it is pretty clear that Edwards is likely to lose:
Alabama 9
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kentucky 8
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
North Dakota 3
Texas 34
Utah 5
Wyoming 3

Solid electoral votes for Bush: 91

And although Edwards could win the following states, it is somewhat out of his hands:
Alaska 3 (depending on whether Murkowski-Knowles explodes in his favor)
Colorado 9
Georgia 15 (is there a backlash here against all-Republican rule?)
New Hampshire 4 (Republican Governor goes too far?)
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3 (Daschle fight the big draw here, maybe both Bush and Edwards are on the coattails instead of the other way around.)

Likely electoral votes for Bush: 42



The remaining states you listed that Dean loses are all possibilities -- so they are all in the up for grabs category for Edwards:
Arizona 10 (lots of unhappy veterans, but want a military friendly candidate; moderate Democratic governor)
Arkansas 6 (border state that rejected false piety in 2002; 2 moderate Democratic senators)
Florida 27 (with an energized African-American vote and the right military/veteran friendly candidate, this state can be won.)
Kansas 6 (moderate Democratic governor. She went over to see Edwards at the Iowa JJ.)
Louisiana 9 (2 moderate Democratic senators; this state has thumbed its nose at Bush twice since 2000)
North Carolina 15 (Swings back and forth; Edwards got swing vote in 1998, increasing support there. Lots of veterans and military families unhappy with Bush)
Oklahoma 7 (Moderate Democratic governor. Edwards likely to win primary there, builds support early.)
Tennessee 11 (Edwards lived there, a state much like NC, swinging back and forth. Moderate Democratic governor.)
Virginia 13 (Moderate Democratic governor. Lots of unhappy veterans and military families.)

Total solid and likely: 133. And Bush has to fight the one guy he wants to see least of all for the remaining states for the additional 137 votes he needs. No doubt Edwards is the best candidate in these places, for lots of reasons, including what the SC poll just told us: Edwards does better than all the other white candidates with minority voters.

Now. Imagine Bush and Edwards in a debate. Wow.
Edwards is the one who can win.

[peaceandjustice]

44. please explain five of those predictions.

What do you base your assumption Dean will lose in New Hampshire, Missouri, Colorado, Florida and Arizona on? I think he has a good shot at those five.

[Scott Lee]

24. Dean's got the Cumulative Teflon Mojo

It's that rare, infuriating ability to get stronger and more insulated from harm with every blow leveled at you. It's not conscious - it's just something that...happens.

The Kerryites and Geppies hate it because they believe their man is entitled. Clarkies hate it because they think their man shed blood for the job. Kucinich supporters hate it because they can't believe a Democrat who refuses to get punched in the face over and over again can win on the "high road". Establishment types hate it because he didn't come up through the approved internal ranks.

But when the smoke clears, there stands Howard Dean. Defying all predictions, early dismissals and spite from all sides. Why, if I didn't know better I'd say his unique ability sounds like that of another well known Democrat; a guy who wouldn't be put down no matter what poop was thrown on him.

Oh, his name was Bill Clinton.

[Rose Siding]

25. Not even Clinton had this-

http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/112803B.shtml
snip>
Conventional wisdom in political circles says California is too big for grassroots organizing. Most campaigns focus all their efforts into media campaigns in California and ignore true grassroots organizing. The result is top down organizations that leave people feeling disconnected from the political process. The Dean campaign is bucking the trend. Their organization in California is growing from the bottom up.
snip>
At the organizing strategy meeting, I was amazed to hear them talking about breaking down into precincts. There were no campaign staff present and they were discussing ways to disseminate precinct lists. The strategy was being developed by the volunteers, many of whom have never worked on a campaign before.
end snip>

I imagine Clinton losing sleep wondering how THAT happened! The people are going to pay Dean's ticket and invested people are very discerning about which punches actually landed and which were feints.

[DrFunkenstein]

28. Timing, Not Teflon

Dean was starting to feel the heat of several major articles talking about his flip-flopping and hypocrisy until Clark entered the race and changed the news cycle. Similarly with the Confederate flag. He lucked out, because he got major endorsements from some unions, changing the news cycle.

This hardly indicates that he, himself, can make tags slide off.

[Egnever]

29. Yes funk its all luck

Somehow this guy is going to manage to forest gump his way into the white house. You will be sitting there at the end slaping your forehead wondering how he could possibly have had all these things work out so well for him.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

31. hahaha

That was great...forest-gump himself into the white house. :thumbsup:

[Scott Lee]

37. Can you please educate blm on the media scrutiny of Dean?

Dean was starting to feel the heat of several major articles talking about his flip-flopping and hypocrisy

By the looks of your post you have a much stronger hold on facts than they do.

Thanks.

[Octafish]

38. Dean Is a Crypto-Republican.

Greider likes nice, responsible investor banking types in charge of domestic and foreign policy. So does The Nation for that matter. And the Big Spenders that back it and the "Establishment Left." Where've you been, besides picking on blm?

http://www.questionsquestions.net/gatekeepers.html

They make a pretty damn good case of who's behind the "Liberal" press, along woth the mainstream mass media, that give the lion's share of glowing coverage to Ho-Ho. Interesting, even to you, huh?

[Scott Lee]

42. Heavens, Dean is so Republican that he....

* Wants a strong universal health care program

* Wants an end to this war and opposes wars on such grounds in the future (HINT: He didnt get the Never Ending War Memo)

* Walked the picket lines with striking workers

* Openly, strongly supports the rights of gays to marry

Oh yeah baby...it don't get more crypto-republican than that!

[no name no slogan]

43. So did Nixon

* Wants a strong universal health care program
Nixon proposed one of those in 1972, and it would have covered EVERYBODY-- not just 95% or 97% like the one Dean is proposing.

Wants an end to this war and opposes wars on such grounds in the future (HINT: He didnt get the Never Ending War Memo)
If he wants this war to end, then WHY did he support the $87bil to Iraq, and why does he want to keep our troops there?

He has also not ruled out the possiblity of pre-emptive war, and supported every other "engagement" the US has been involved with post-Vietnam. That includes Grenada, Panama and the first Gulf War, too.

* Walked the picket lines with striking workers
Was that before or AFTER he declared his candidacy in 2001?

* Openly, strongly supports the rights of gays to marry
Where do you get that idea from? Dean has said, REPEATEDLY, that he supports "civil unions", but DOES NOT support Gay Marriage. There IS a difference, you know.

BTW Barry Goldwater, arch-conservative Republican, supported openly gay people to serve in the military. Did that suddenly make him NOT a Republican? I doubt it.

Once again, a Deaniac projects his/her beliefs and positions onto a candidate who hardly shares those same ideals. I would take a look at his RECORD and his platform before sending him another dollar, if I were you.

:eyes:

[Scott Lee]

45. Uh oh! You just told a string of lies

* Wants a strong universal health care program
Nixon proposed one of those in 1972, and it would have covered EVERYBODY-- not just 95% or 97% like the one Dean is proposing.

Lie!

Nixon called for an employer-mandate that would require that every job came with health benefits. Thats for WORKERS, it never addressed non workers and then a huge chunk of the American populace.


If he (Dean) wants this war to end, then WHY did he support the $87bil to Iraq, and why does he want to keep our troops there?

Lie by mischaracterization!

I said Dean was and is against this war, and he is. You changed the question to "wants a war to end", which could apply to any thinking person. Bad bad! Don't change wording to fit your premise. How republican!

Now, what Dean said about the 87 bil is that he'd support it IF NumbNuts took back the tax cuts. It was a rhetorical gambit, that means he knew that NumbNuts would ever do such a thing and that was all he wanted to point out.

Dean wants a pull out of troops that would not place them in greater harms way or cause more damage to Iraq. That's not the same as wanting to keep an occupation force there, as NumbNuts does.

He has also not ruled out the possiblity of pre-emptive war,

I have not ruled out shooting my neighbor. Does that mean I never will even if he tries to shoot me first?

and supported every other "engagement" the US has been involved with post-Vietnam. That includes Grenada, Panama and the first Gulf War, too.

Lie by mischaracterization! We were talking about the Iraq war, not the others. Try not to change the rules in the middle of the game. Thats very republican.

* Walked the picket lines with striking workers
Was that before or AFTER he declared his candidacy in 2001?

Does it matter? And...

LIE by misdirection! You indicated in your rebuttal that Nixon walked picket lines with strikers. Can you post proof of this or just admit you lied?

* Openly, strongly supports the rights of gays to marry
Where do you get that idea from? Dean has said, REPEATEDLY, that he supports "civil unions", but DOES NOT support Gay Marriage. There IS a difference, you know.

It has already been proven that Dean has worked tirelessly in Vermont to see that Gays can marry, whether you want to call it is a civil union or not. When gay people marry, wouldn't you be describing GAY MARRIAGE?

And, LIE by misdirection again! You indicated in your rebuttal that Nixon was pro gay marriage. Please post proof that this Quaker guy approved of Gay marriage or admit that you just lied. Again.

[blm]

33. Wrong. He's unexamined by the media because Rove wants it that way.

Once Rove is secure that Dean is the nominee all his lies and inconsistencies will be on full display in ads run 40 times a day everyday for months.

[Scott Lee]

36. Unexamined. Have you watched all the articles written on Dean?

Many of them posted either in part or in their entirety right here on DU?

Honestly, your paranoia of Dean is getting scary.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

46. Dean who?

[TopesJunkie]

39. Thanks for sharing.

Greider has a knack for sifting through the clouds and getting to the ultimate bottom line. He does it again with this piece.

[dajabr]

41. My pleasure...

:toast: