Interesting study on Democrats in NH...

[AP]

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/iss111703.pdf

The economy 19% and honesty 13% are two most important issues for voters. Iraq ranks 5th with 10%

When asked if the economy is the main reason you're going to vote in the primary, Edwards does the best with that crowd (with 29% saying they're voting for Edwards). He also does well with people who say creating more jobs is their number one issue. For Clark, 41% of his support comes from people who want to end the war.

The break down the reasons for voting for your candidate.

For Edwards supporters, the number one reason is position on the issues, and 38% put that reason first, which was way higher than any other candidate (eg, it's the number one reason for the greates number of Dean supporters, at 17%). Interestingly, for Clark, the most frequent reason was military experience, with 0% saying their voting for him because of his positions on the issues.

[Jerseycoa]

1. Very interesting

"For Clark, 41% of his support comes from people who want to end the war."

Thanks for posting this.

[AP]

2. For Clark supporters the biggest risk, obviously, is that if Clark

were nominated, Bush would look at these numbers and pull out of Iraq. Right there, 41% of Clark's supporters would lose their number one reason for supporting him.

Now, if you're a single issue voter and only care that we pull out of Iraq, you might as well nominate Clark, because that's going to result in the US pulling out of Iraq in, oh, say, October 2004. Of course, you'd be stuck with Bush for four more years, but, if you're a single issue voter...

[RevolutionStartsNow]

3. Huh?

Are you saying that if Clark gets the nom, Bush will pull out of Iraq in October 2004 and then 41% of the Clark supporters will either not vote or vote for Bush? That seems pretty far-fetched.

[AP]

4. 2/5ths of his support is on that issue alone.

And 0% like prefer him over the others because of his policies.

The winner will probably win by very few votes. If 2/5ths of the candidates lose their pirmary reason for support, what % do you think won't be so motivated to show up to vote? How many might think Bush isn't so bad afterall?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

6. Still doesn't make sense

Bush suddenly "pulls out" the troops, and Clark loses 2/5 of his support? Keep in mind that this is just for the primaries, against the other candidates. When faced with Clark v. Bush, I bet most Dems will prefer Clark's policies and every other thing about him.

[AP]

7. That's not what I said. If it cost him 4% of the vote, that could be the

difference between winning a losing.

And we're talking about people who either don't care about anything else, or people who like Bush except for his position on the war.

That's how McGovern lost. It's also how Lauteberg won.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

8. Do you think if Bush pulls the troops out

that people will buy that his position on the war has changed?

I do think it's surprising that such a large % of Clark voters base their support on that one issue, but I also think that a lot will change before Nov. 2004. If Clark is the nominee, he will give his supporters many more reasons to support him rather than Bush. The NH analysis is still just an analysis of why a voter supports one Dem over another.

I see what you are getting at, but I think the scenario is a bit far-fetched. That being said, Clark could do well to reinforce his other qualities with his supporters.

[FrenchieCat]

9. AP, I just read the survey

and I think that you are misrepresenting the issue of Clark. Those who want to vote for him do not do so because solely the Iraq War. The survey says specifically on page 2....that Clark is cited more often as the candidate best able to deal with terrorism both inside and outside the United States. It goes on to say....no candidate by a large percentage is recognized as having the best plan to end the war in Iraq.

There's is a big difference here. As getting out of Iraq does not end the terror war.

remember 9/11?????
Patriot act????
Homeland Security???

In essence the only uniting quality that Bush currently has going for him???

[AP]

11. Yeah, I was reading the chart on bottom p4 for clark number,

and the one on the top of p3 for the Edwards number.

Different questions...

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. 37% say Dean has best chance to beat Bush

21% Kerry
8% Clark
6% Gep
3% Edwards
2% Lieberman
3% Other
20% Don't Know

Hmm....looks like some people think Dean can beat Bush.

In fact, strangely enough, more Edwards voters think Dean can beat Bush than Edwards (29% vs 20%).

[a_lil_wall_fly]

10. Thanks for finding more information about the views of NH

We will have to see how the "cookie-crumbles" come mid-January!!!!

[FightinNewDem]

12. Good source for more info

Re: the UNH poll, most of the politicos I have talked to agree that the numbers show what many of us have suspected, that in NH, Edwards, Lieberman and Gephardt are tangled up, with none of the trio breaking through among moderates.

If anyone is interested in a good new book on the NH Primary, I reccommend "Stormy Weather", by Dante Scala. Scala is a poli sci professor at St. Anselm College in Manchester, and is a frequent commentator in the local media. His book is a nice blend of geeky academic analysis and fun war stories (the Tsongas campaign in a bass boat festooned with blue and green campaign signs chasing down Tom Harkin's fundraising cruise on Lake Winnepisaukee).