New American Research Group Poll shows Clark in lead in SC

[FrenchieCat]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

Likely Democratic primary voters Nov Oct Sept Aug April Jan

Carol Moseley Braun 3% 5% 4% 1% 1% NI
Wesley Clark 15% 17% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Howard Dean 9% 7% 6% 5% 2% 2%
John Edwards 12% 10% 16% 10% 7% 8%
Dick Gephardt 7% 7% 5% 8% 9% 11%
John Kerry 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% NI
Joe Lieberman 9% 8% 7% 14% 19% 22%
Al Sharpton 9% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4%
Undecided 32% 36% 42% 48% 47% 51%
NI - Not included

Wesley Clark continues to have the lowest unfavorable rating.

About this survey:

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered voters in South Carolina saying they would definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary.

Sample Dates: November 21-26, 2003

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording:

I'm going to read a list of names associated with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before.

The first name is (READ FROM BELOW). Have you ever heard of (NAME) before? IF AWARE, ASK: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (NAMES ROTATED)

Carol Moseley Braun
Wesley Clark
Howard Dean
John Edwards
Dick Gephardt
John Kerry
Dennis Kucinich
Joe Lieberman
Al Sharpton

If the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, or Al Sharpton, for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED)

[FrenchieCat]

1. As of the closing date of this poll....

Edwards had made a big media buy just before the poll was taken. Clark has spent no media money in S. Ca.

This poll is great news for Clark. When his media goes up, he'll get a big bounce from that.

[pruner]

2. you never cease to amaze me with the breadth & depth of your knowledge

you're quite the expert on EVERYTHING, aren't you.

:crazy:

[Kahuna]

6. Ah, poor pruner. This kind of deflates your joy over the..

the poll that you posted from some pollster nobody ever heard of the other day. Buck up and keep googling. I'm sure you'll dig up some more dubious anti Clark material soon.

[pruner]

8. another Clarkie blinded by his hatred of Dean…

please point me to a single post of mine that's anti-Clark.

[pruner]

10. I'm still waiting…

either post a link to an anti-Clark comment I've made or

[FrenchieCat]

12. Actually you should work for the media...

it's not that your threads are "anti-Clark"...it's just that you make sure that the headlines your write when starting a post puts Clark in the most unfavorable light possible...like you would write a headline about this new poll that shows Clark leading like this:

Dean up by 2 pt., Clark down by 2 pt. in newest SC Poll!

It's called tweeking...that's what your are good at.....you should send your "headline" to CNN...as they really do hate Clark, they would love what you have to offer....they could use another one of you.

[pruner]

15. actually, the title to my thread was…

"new (ARG) South Carolina poll".

there was no editorial whatsoever.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=790150

[FrenchieCat]

16. You are right....

I apologize.....confused you with another Deanie...
Forgive me.

[pruner]

19. your apology is accepted

:)

[burr]

20. who do you confuse me with???

O8)

[ryharrin]

3. Don't forget about Dean.

He's only a few points back, and this proves that he's a national candidate that doesn't have to worry about focusing on one or two regional races like all the other candidates. This poll is terrible for Edwards though. Without SC he's done. Polling under 20% with a home turf advantage is pretty sad. The fact that he's not even in first place is devastating. Once Dean's campaign gets some ads and some more organization down there, he'll win it easily.

[DemDogs]

13. Ask Clark whether he trusts this poll

His internal poll numbers show Edwards ahead according to the DC talk. And Clark has been all over SC.

[FrenchieCat]

14. got a link?

On Clark's internal poll and the DC talk?

I'd like to see them. Thanks advance.

[AP]

21. I believe (from memory) that his is an automatic telephone poll

that people say undercounts black voters.

The polls that take into account this error have Edwards in the lead. ARG had ver accurate polling for the 200 race, however. But SC has a way higher percentage of black Democratic voters than any other state, and, apparently, Edwards is doing very well with theat demographic.

I read this over at the Edwards blog, I think, or at some blog (maybe Joshua Micah Marshall?). I could be wrong though.

[unfrigginreal]

4. Looks like Clark is headed the same direction in SC that he took in NH n/t

[FrenchieCat]

5. You mean

Clark is moving back up? Yep, despite constant media bashing or ignores......

NH....went from 4% back up to 8%...is currently in 3rd place.

THANKS FOR NOTICING.

[ryharrin]

7. Uh, no.

He's going down in SC right now. And though you may have found him going up in one NH poll, he's definitely going down in some. Not to mention the southward trend in his national polling, which Dean is taking over mostly.

[slinkerwink]

9. oh, and GOOD news for Dean

"Howard Dean is coming to SC next Sunday. He will be at the Clarion Town House Hotel at 12:30 on December 7th. The hotel is located at 1615 Gervais St. Jesse Jackson Jr will also be there."

link at : blog.deanforamerica.com


It looks like Dean's also looking to make a showing in South Carolina and the official endorsement of Jesse Jackson Jr ought to help things along since Dean gained two points in the recent SC poll. Looks like Clark or Edwards better not take SC for granted.

[FrenchieCat]

11. Why is article on Dean's war stance

in this article on the PNAC site saying that he's the same as establishment Democrats....(they forget to mention without an foreign policy experience)?????

http://www.newamericancentury.org/defense-20031117.htm

Howard Dean is no George McGovern. He opposed the Iraq war, he says, because it was "the wrong war at the wrong time," not because it was emblematic of a fundamentally misguided American foreign policy. Dean has not, in fact, challenged the reigning foreign policy paradigms of the post-9/11 era: the war on terrorism and the nexus between terrorism and rogue states with weapons of mass destruction. "I support the president's war on terrorism," he told Tim Russert this summer. He supported the war in Afghanistan. He even supported Israel's strike against a terrorist camp in Syria because Israel, like the United States, has the "right" to defend itself. (European Deanophiles take note.) Dean does not call for a reduction in American military power but talks about using the "iron fist" of our "superb military." He talks tough about North Korea and at times appears to be criticizing the Bush administration for not addressing that "imminent" threat more seriously. And he especially enjoys lacerating Bush for not taking the fight more effectively to al Qaeda, a bit like John F. Kennedy criticizing Eisenhower in 1960 for not being tough enough on communism.

Of course, all this tough talk could be hot air. Maybe Dean is doing a great job controlling and hiding his inner peacenik. If so, that in itself tells you something about the current state of the foreign policy debate. Even Mr. Speak-My-Mind thinks he has to talk tough. George McGovern didn't.

Another possibility is that Dean's opposition to the Iraq war has been over-interpreted by his supporters on the Democratic left. They think he rejects the overall course of American foreign policy, just as they do. But maybe he doesn't. They think he's one of them, but his views may not be all that different from those of today's Democratic centrist establishment. When Dean criticizes Bush's foreign policy "unilateralism," he sounds like a policy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, not a radical. "There are two groups of people who support me because of the war," Dean told Mara Liasson a few months ago. "One are the people who always oppose every war, and in the end I think I probably won't get all of those people." The other group, Dean figures, simply "appreciates the fact" that he "stood up early" and spoke his mind and opposed Bush while other Democrats were cowed. Dean may not be offering a stark alternative to Bush's foreign policy, therefore, so much as he is simply offering Democrats a compelling and combative alternative to Bush himself. The Iraq war provided the occasion to prove his mettle.

[slinkerwink]

17. Dean supported the Biden-Lugar amendment which is different

from the IWR resolution that was passed. Since that amendment wasn't passed, Dean ended up being against the war. I love how you answered my post above about Dean making a play for SC by bringing up a totally unrelated response.

[Mz Pip]

18. I noticed

the "undecided" number is still pretty high.

I suspect that many people still aren't paying attention. I just find it funny that so many people are willing to call this nomination for Dean weeks before the first primary.

MzPip
:dem: