Today I think the WSJ mentioned that Bush might tap into the Strategic Reserve..funny how he critiiczed Gore for that same thing almost 4 years ago. Of course at the time Bush said we would have to "be at war" first, but since we are in the Orwellian Never-ending war on a tactic/technique, I guess that's ok. Anyhow, here's 3 articles for those who follow this type on info. My guess? $60 per barrel around Thanksgiving, but it could get much higher than that...
....article #1....
'The era of cheap oil is history, geologist warns'
By Harold Brubaker, Inquirer Staff Writer, Aug 25, 2004
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/9490629.htm?1cKenneth S. Deffeyes, a Princeton University geologist, has a suggestion for Thanksgiving 2005: "Give thanks for a century of cheap and plentiful oil."
That is when he predicts global oil production will peak, making it increasingly difficult to meet the world's voracious appetite for inexpensive energy.
"The exploration game is essentially over," Deffeyes said yesterday at the American Chemical Society's national meeting at the Convention Center and nearby hotels.
"We are unable to find new oil at the rate society or chemical engineers would request," Deffeyes said to a roomful of chemists, whose industry has been pummeled by rising energy costs.
"The reality is that no unused surplus production capacity exists anywhere in the world," Deffeyes said.
...and for article #2...
'First signs of a global decline in oil?'
By Adam Porter
Wednesday 25 August 2004
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/561306AC-83F7-4FCE-A7EE-3EDD1B5C6096.htmNew statistics are claiming that oil production in 18 producer countries has passed its peak and is declining faster than previously thought: At about 1.14 million barrels a day.
As oil prices bounce around the $45 mark one of the main factors underpinning the price rise is the increasingly popular notion of oil ''depletion''.
"....Those 18 countries in decline amount to about 25% of the world's producers. They are losing about 1.14 million bpd. (yes, that refers to a "per day" loss)
This means that the other 75% have to increase output. Not only to add the extra barrels lost by the declining countries, but also to meet leaping global demand, about 2.4 million bpd in 2004.
...and article #3....
Over A Million Barrels Of Oil A Day Lost To Depletion
The world is now losing more than a million barrels of oil a day to depletion – twice the rate of two years ago – according to a new analysis published this month in Petroleum Review, the oil and gas magazine of the Energy Institute in London.
The analysis shows that output from 18 significant oil-producing countries, accounting for almost 29 percent of total world production, declined by 1.14 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2003. The annual rate of decline also appears to be accelerating, contrary to the widely held view that depletion progresses slowly.
Based on data in the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy, production from this group of countries peaked in 1997 at 24.7 mb/d and by 2003 it had fallen to 22.1 mb/d. In 1998 their total production dropped by less than one percent, whereas last year it declined by nearly five percent.
“It appears that depletion is now becoming a much more significant, though largely unrecognised, consideration in the supply-demand equation, and may be contributing to the rise in oil prices,” said Chris Skrebowski, Editor of Petroleum Review, who prepared the new analysis.
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