Excluding 54000 new pretend stay at home, only 4,000 new jobs in Nov

[papau]

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

2003 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Natural Resources & Mining
-1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -1 0
Construction
13 35 28 -8 16 9 8 -7 -8
Manufacturing
-15 5 5 -29 6 3 -7 3 1
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
-4 21 18 -19 17 17 13 17 18
Information
-3 4 0 -4 2 0 -1 3 3
Financial Activities
9 8 6 -11 8 4 14 7 13
Professional & Business Services
61 32 21 -22 31 15 18 10 9
Education & Health Services
32 6 -4 -20 14 12 26 10 7
Leisure & Hospitality
29 72 83 40 24 -29 -27 -14 15
Other Services
7 8 6 -10 5 1 0 2 4
Total
128 192 164 -83 124 33 45 30 62



2004 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Natural Resources & Mining
-4 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0
Construction
-66 7 27 38 39 31 -7 16 10 2 -7
Manufacturing
-38 4 7 3 8 7 -22 4 6 -10 5
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
-61 9 22 19 23 22 -15 21 19 10 22
Information
-5 5 2 2 3 1 -6 3 -2 2 4
Financial Activities
-12 10 9 16 7 10 -18 8 6 11 10
Professional & Business Services
-95 27 31 66 26 24 -32 24 14 41 17
Education & Health Services
-6 15 10 37 11 -2 -10 17 15 29 12
Leisure & Hospitality
-24 33 37 80 71 81 30 21 -31 -40 -10
Other Services
-10 5 7 9 6 7 -11 5 2 -3 1
Total
-321 115 153 270 195 182 -91 120 39 42 54

[mhr]

1. One Guesses That In Bush's World Pretend Jobs Are Just As Good As

Real jobs. Besides, "Jaysus" would never let his children starve.

One wonders then how the fundamentalists account for all the plagues and pestilence so aptly described in the "Jaysus" book.

Seems that Main Street of yore could take a hit just like Main Street of today.

Oh, but realizing that would mean that one was living in reality.

"Jaysus" would never allow that to happen in Bush's world.

[gnofg]

2. clueless

Idiot has been surrounded by the corpoarte elite for his whole life. He has absolutely no concept on what it is like to start from scratch. This econmy is going to kill the repub party. There is a second recession coming Hold on. In the long run the repub party will be sucking eggs.

[jwcomer]

3. pretend jobs?

Papau,

I thought we had agreed that the BDM numbers were not pretend jobs after all. Have you found some new data to amend the arguments? I dropped out of the board for a while so I apologize if there is something new to that was added to the debate, which I have missed.

I do find it interesting that Nov 2004 BDM is 24k more than in Nov 2003. It may just be noise though, but IIRC I once calculated that the noise threshold was around +/-20k for the BDM. We haven't seen anything outside of that margin since April. I'll have to think about the possible implications, if any.

-Walton

[papau]

4. BDM numbers are real "lag" adjustment numbers - but I do not see

any plan to terminate the tail - and that is crazy.

The establishment survey will pick up the at home's that aren't paying payroll tax every time the survey is reset to agree with the years 4/15 income tax/payroll tax reports.

Indeed When I ran a Fortune 50 tax department the DOL folks told me that they reset to the real data so as to keep better credibility in the survey numbers they announce.

I am waiting for that to happen now - and I do not see it happening with this series.

So - sorry - but with only the 5 year tail testing they do today - I just do not have much faith in these numbers. Five years is a silly time frame when you get annual good data.

[Robert Oak]

5. wow these "little details" are enlightening ty n/t