The dollar will tumble

[edhopper]

Here is another article from the NY TImes about the precarious position of the dollar.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/19/business/yourmoney/19doll.html?oref=login
I think we will see a catastrophic fall that could put our economy into crisis.
I'd like to hear others thoughts on this.

[stevebreeze]

1. I don't see it crashing either, but slow erosion

I don't think there is much doubt about that. We can't keep bowing at the present rate, national debt,balance of trade, and personal debt are all extremely high. It don't look to good for the economic future of the common person.

[On the Road]

3. Ordinarily, the Change Might be Gradual

but the enormous increase in currency speculation makes an abrupt change more likely. Not necessarily downward -- whenever all the articles you read give the same prognosis, markets are likely to move against that consensus.

Now is the time to be surfing Soros.

[readmylips]

2. bush dictatorship again...world order....

The US/bush keeps borrowing until he bankrupts other countries by not paying back the US debt. Looks like stealing to me. What can those other countries do? Some don't even have an army to fight us. Those countries better start pulling back or they'll all become republic banana countries. bush has no intentions of paying back the debt.

[American_Liberal08]

12. Dollar erosion

The dollar will continue to decline if the current administration doesn't do anything about it, and bush needs to stop his fiscal spending.

Also, readmylips, How can the US be 'stealing' when most of the countries its 'stealing' from owe money to the United States anyway? remeber WW1, WW2, and Vietnam?

[democraticrevolution]

4. It may happen eventually

I don't know when it will happen but at the rate we are going. China holds our debt and Europe is gaining on the US economically. The neo con administration better wake up!

[edhopper]

5. Actually..

the biggest holder of our debt is Japan at close to a trillion and continues to buy some. China has a big holding, but has stopped buying new debt. Europe holds and buys dollars but is getting very reluctant to continue. The biggest buyer now is Carribean Banks, which probably really means S. American Drug Lords.

[amazona]

6. "will" tumble?

It is down 60 percent against the euro, how much further does it have to go before we acknowledge that it has crashed and burned pretty hard already?

[idlisambar]

8. It will go down much further...

...even against the Euro it will probably drop a bit more, but against the yen and yuan, and won it has a lot further to go. Our ginourmous trade deficits make it inevitable, the only question is when and how fast.

[edhopper]

7. I'm not talking about the slow decline

we have seen, but something along the lines of Argentina or Asia in the early 90's. A steep sharp collapse. Something that will halt Central Banks from buying dollars and move the Govt. into default.

[JPace]

9. Japan threatens huge dollar sell-off

What is the likelihood of Japan following through with their threat?

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1366578,00.html
Japan threatens huge dollar sell-off

Heather Stewart in Tokyo
Sunday December 5, 2004
The Observer

Japan is warning the White House that there will be 'enormous capital flight' from the dollar if the Bush administration maintains its laissez-faire approach to the mounting currency crisis.
Tokyo fears that Japan's strongest economic recovery in a decade could be derailed by the sudden appreciation in the yen against the greenback.

(snip)

The criticism of President Bush's inaction, by a senior member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, will be taken as a veiled threat that Japan could start to sell off its multi-billion-dollar holdings of US Treasuries. 'The Japanese government is going to ask for a strong dollar policy; if it continues to fall, there would be enormous capital flight from the dollar,' said Kaoru Yosano, chairman of the LDP's policy council, adding that Japan would be calling on its fellow G7 governments to demand the US deal with the massive fiscal deficit that has helped to prompt the dollar's decline.

Yosano's remarks echoed a warning from a senior Japanese Ministry of Finance official that if the US does not push up interest rates to make the dollar more attractive, 'the one-way sentiment on the dollar will have a negative impact on the flow of capital into the US.' He added that Japan is urging its European counterparts to join a campaign of coordinated currency-market intervention, saying: 'If the dollar is depreciating, we should have coordinated action: that has already been communicated to my European counterparts.'

Like Japan, the eurozone fears that its tentative recovery could be choked off by the fall in the dollar, which European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has called 'brutal'. However, the ECB has so far dismissed the idea of intervening. more..

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,13...

[Strelnikov_]

10. And In The Last Few Days We Are Seeing Reports Regarding Budget Cuts

President Cheney must be taking this Japanese threat seriously.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. Thanks for the information!