Thoughts On A Second Great Depression -- M.A. Nystrom

[Tace]

http://www.bullnotbull.com/bull/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=3&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

This appeared today in the Stockmarket Watch Thread. I feel it is worth posting here. Cheers.
---

M.A. Nystrom, M.B.A.
Man on the street in (the Republic of) China
March 7, 2005

(snip)

Like a slow train coming, another great depression is on its way. No one knows exactly when that train will arrive, so now is the time to prepare for your safety and do what you can to preserve the wealth you've built. Then you can begin to scan the horizon for opportunities that will inevitably arise, and think about ways you can help people less fortunate than yourself.

Pessimism, cynicism and negativity are for better times; for times like the ones we are approaching, we can't afford them.

I believe the looming second great depression with be a cathartic period of transformation giving us (meaning all of us, collectively) the opportunity to reengineer society into something more just, free and appropriate for the future world that we are living into. Just as we no longer need to spend 16 hours per day slaving on the farm to meet our subsistence needs, in the future we won't need to spend 10 hours per day slaving at the office in order to simply consume more.

The digital information communications revolution is changing the world as much as the industrial revolution did, but in the midst of the current dislocations and confusion, it is difficult to recognize. But since most work -- from farming to manufacturing to many routine services -- can be automated, the question then becomes what will people do with their time? How will people live and interact? The answers to these questions will be decided during the pain, confusion, reflection and search for answers that the second great depression will inevitably bring.

http://www.bullnotbull.com/bull/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=3&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

[Warpy]

1. Every disaster presents us with an opportunity.

However, the dismantling of the New Deal protections combined with the total corruption of the press and the electoral system, resulting in a government that barely goes through the constitutional motions, should show us how fragile any reform arising from the ashes of disaster can be.

Until and unless we set into legal stone means by which we can completely prevent the future concentration of wealth, any reform benefiting ordinary people will be doomed to eventual failure.

That this has happened again and again throughout history is no surprise. What is a surprise is how easily ordinary people are hoodwinked into supporting their own enslavement and destruction.

That the concentration of wealth is the enemy of any democracy and that it is easy to brainwash people into believing any unopposed lie are two of the great lessons of history. That they are easily forgotten again and again is the shame of the human race.

[The Doctor.]

4. I must disagree with one point...

I see no problem with a concentration of wealth so long as it does not entail the concentration of influence.

"So... if money is the equivalent to freedom of speech, does that mean I must 'voice' support for the government on tax day?

- Think I'll take the fifth until we have a look at that."

[whistle]

2. Wow and what is it we'll be using as liquid assets during the...

...2nd great depression to buy all that automation produced food that will be needed to keep our brains sharp and alert to think our way to those answers for a better tomorrow?

<snip>
I believe the looming second great depression with be a cathartic period of transformation giving us (meaning all of us, collectively) the opportunity to reengineer society into something more just, free and appropriate for the future world that we are living into. Just as we no longer need to spend 16 hours per day slaving on the farm to meet our subsistence needs, in the future we won't need to spend 10 hours per day slaving at the office in order to simply consume more.

The digital information communications revolution is changing the world as much as the industrial revolution did, but in the midst of the current dislocations and confusion, it is difficult to recognize. But since most work -- from farming to manufacturing to many routine services -- can be automated, the question then becomes what will people do with their time? How will people live and interact? The answers to these questions will be decided during the pain, confusion, reflection and search for answers that the second great depression will inevitably bring.

[NEOBuckeye]

3. Forget processed. How do you think we got here?

Jefferson, Madison and Franklin weren't exactly dining on Campbell Soup, but they still managed to ignite the American Revolution.

Somehow, I think we will manage, and might even be better for it.

[The Doctor.]

5. Wow... real Conservatives might yet re-surface after all!

"Liberal... the new Conservative"

[On the Road]

6. I Don't Doubt There Will be a Crash

but a depression implies that after the crash, the economy stablizes rather than emerges into a recovery. That's what happenned during the 1930s, and that's the part I doubt will happen today.

The article talks about Elliott and Kondratieff waves, which are controversial. There are a lot of Elliott wave theorists on stock boards, and they would be the last to claim that their forecasts are infallible. Plus they're usually used in the medium term.

The attempt to identify Kondratieff waves of 60 or 150 years are even less compelling -- the modern economy is simply not long enough to establish a proveable pattern.