3Q GDP deconstructed

[Boom_cha]

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc031102.htm

snip

In short, the GDP report was a ball of fire ignited by a big can of one-time tax credits and another big can of cash-out mortgage refinancing. Consumers received a bunch of lump-sum distributions and spent them on consumption goods, autos, and housing. To expect this spending to continue in the absence of such distributions requires very strained analysis.

[Redleg]

1. I knew there had to be a better explanation for this growth...

... besides "Bush's tax cuts are fixing the economy" bushwa.

[StephNW4Clark]

2. The good long-term indicator

for GDP growth is to look at productivity and manufacturing indicators. Unless those start moving up, and unemployment figures drop, then these "bursts" of GDP growth are meaningless as they cannot be sustained in the long run.

And of course the caveat w/ unemployment figures is to really determine if the unemployment figure is dropping because disappointed workers have dropped out of the pool of active job searchers, or if there is actually an increase in job creation/re-hiring.

[rogerashton]

3. While I buy it overall,

I don't think the tax cut was the biggie. If a guy got a $200 tax cut and a $20000 morgage cashout and bought a $30000 car, the Rethuglicans will say, see, the tax cut worked -- but that's not what the number say.

[PeterS]

4. My, how times change...

I don't think the tax cut was the biggie. If a guy got a $200 tax cut and a $20000 morgage cashout and bought a $30000 car, the Rethuglicans will say, see, the tax cut worked -- but that's not what the number say.

Wasn’t it Q4-99 that we pulled a 7.1, added 750,000 jobs, and turned a surplus? And we are now dancing in the streets because of a 7.2, negative jobs growth, and push by an accumulation of about 800B in tax cuts and deficit spending? My, how quickly times change.....