127k jobs - but no comment on structural Deficit or decline in real wages

[papau]

The decline in real wage growth and, more importantly, increased deficits that are now structural in nature, will destroy this economy - Bush must be replaced.

But our media can not even mention that 8.8 million remained unemployed last month, with about 2 million without jobs for 27 weeks or more

Job Watch -

On October 21, The New York Times reported that Treasury Secretary John Snow projected that the economy will generate two million additional jobs,about 200,000 per month, before next years election. This new numberis a huge retreat from the administrations previous projection made when it was selling its tax cuts. In February the Council of Economic Advisers projected 306,000 per month job growth starting in mid-2003 if the tax cuts were passed and roughly 228,000 jobs created per month without the tax cuts.

It takes 170,000 new jobs each month just to provide jobs for an expanding population and workforce and 300,000 new jobs each month to lower the unemployment rate by one percentage point over the course of a year. http://jobwatch.org/

So we got a "good" number -127,000 -but still increasing unemployed - as 127,000 does not cover population growth. Once military rotates back - if they rotate back with a lower reserve/guard call up - we may see a drop in "job creation"


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Technical information: Household data: [phone] USDL 03-675
http://www.bls.gov/cps/ Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release is http://www.bls.gov/ces/ embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST), Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, November 7, 2003.
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2003 -Employment rose in October, and the unemployment rate, at 6.0 percent, was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October,following a similar increase (as revised) in September. Job gains occurred inseveral service industries in October.Manufacturing employment continued to decline, but the rate of job loss has moderated in recent months.


Perhaps we should remind ourselves that in Feb 2003 the DOL changed all the seasonal adjustments - so anyone want to compare last year to this year?

From Feb 2003:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_notice02.htm Several major changes affect the Current Population Survey (household) dataThese include the use of new population controls that reflect Census 2000 results and new information about net migration, the use of new questions about race and Hispanic ethnicity, the introduction of new industry and occupation classifications, improvements in the seasonal adjustment processes, and the annual update of seasonal adjustment factors. For all data series, these changes affect the comparability of the anuary 2003 estimates with those for earlier months. Additional detail is provided in the release at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_notice02a.htm

Several major changes affect the Current Population Surveyhousehold) data Revisions and additions have been made to the A tables of theEmployment Situation. Several series have been affected by conceptual changes or new standards for presenting data. The changes are described in the release at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Last Modified Date: February 07, 2003