not to say i told you so... but

[selador]

last week (Sunday specifically) people here calling for BLACK MONDAY

i said retail is ALWAYS bearish near short term (or long term) bottoms.

i said BUY opp

fear was everywhere.

omg!!! bear stearns offer at 2!!!!

it's armageddon

BSC is now over $11

did anybody buy BSC in single digits?

of course not

dow up sharply from that capitulation low.

i will say it again. BUY panic, sell euphoria.

rallies are sharpest in the context of a bear market

i got slagged for calling bull on the doomsayers 1 week ago but AS USUAL retail is most bearish when they should be bullish (at least short term)

VIX, TRIN, AD, sentiment, institutional buying etc. SCREAMED capitulation low

[A HERETIC I AM]

1. Well called. n/t

[Warpy]

2. I wish I could share your optimism

but too much out there is shaky and ready to topple into the abyss of insolvency.

People have simply reached the limit of how much debt they can afford to service on wages that are not rising. Since this economy was humming along on rising consumer debt, this is not good news.

Bear Stearns is up because the shareholders cried foul and Morgan Stanley knew they'd be tied up in expensive litigation for years. It was cheaper to offer them a better deal.

[leftofthedial]

3. capitalsim is theft

and cancer

[edhopper]

4. the Bear Sterns deal is a scandal.

JPM made an offer of $2 that was accepted as a done deal. Shareholders without inside info sold at anything they could get over $2.
A week later BS insiders push JPM(with the Feds consent) to up it to $10 a share. A lot of little guys get screwed, a few big shot insiders get rich.
Will anyone look into this. No. Because their doing it to save our economy. Right?

[truedelphi]

8. Now how can you even doubt them?

And they are saving the economy for THE CHILDREN!!

[opusprime]

5. I beg to differ...

"dow up sharply from that capitulation low."

This wasnt a capitulation low. This was market intervention by the FED. There have now been multiple times since last August that the FED has intervened in reaction to movements in the market.

On CNBS this morning Art Cashin said these were weakest shorts he'd even seen in his lifetime. The shorts arent weak, they are tired of market manipulation by the powers that be everytime there is an event that may shake the market.

The Fed came out and backstopped the $30 billion dollar Bear bailout.

At the same time they opened the discount window to lend to Investment Bankers, and decided to take garbage loans, MBS, CDO's, etc as collateral.

That is the reason for the pump, not capitulation. The market thinks that the trillions in mortgage debt that is about to default will be backstopped by the Fed.

In other words, the Feds gave the IB's a 'put', by guaranteeing their bad investment choices with US Tax dollars.

And, just like the last 5 or 6 Fed interventions, this will not work for long. Nobody wants to buy crappy mortgage loans when home prices are falling 10% a year.

[Hannah Bell]

7. It's not only the us intervening. Europe has too.

Globally, it's about a trillion dollars they've thrown at the markets so far.

[truedelphi]

9. It's a difference in semantics. you are thinking long term

Like how well will the economy be a year from now. Et Cetera.

The Op poster is thinking, I did REAL well yesterday even though everyone else was scared.

[SlowDownFast]

6. Laughable...

If it wasn't such a pathetic example of the blind attempting to lead the blind.

You're implying that it was a legitimate BUY because BSC had bottomed in a legitimate "free market", and was bound to go back up.

It was no such thing.

First, this ain't The Bottom. If you believe that, then go ahead and buy, buy, buy. LEH is a bargain right now, I'd suggest you start there. Then there's TMA and NLY - man, don't miss out on those!

Second, this was market "intervention" by the Fed by allowing JPM to buy BSC, without shareholder input, at the expense of taxpayers. Now, the whole deal is going into litigation ala Joe Lewis, so the whole damn thing might fall through anyway!

Free market! Fair play! Happy days are here again! Crisis over!

Cramer sayz so!

:eyes:

Only until the defaults continue to come.

Home price declines are the 900lb Gorilla. Approximately 5% of all homes in the United States today are currently underwater on valuation.

With Fannie/Freddie's predictions, that will rise to 15% by the end of the year.

That's 15% of ALL homes, or approximately 30% of all homes with mortgages (~30% of homes have no mortgage and are owned outright)

[lonestarnot]

10. Boy oh boy. What a bright fucking picture.

[girl gone mad]

11. I think the respones you received were valid.

Your rosy views are not based in reality. You are buying into the CNBC/Wall Street Journal hype.

Our financial markets, and banks in particular, are facing a serious crisis. The Fed will not be able to prop it up forever.

[On the Road]

12. There are a Few People Here Who are Not Panic-Mongers

Early in the week of the Bear meltdown, I called an up week for the stock market. Thought I was the only one.

Technically, the market hasn't emerged from the bear trend, so it has to be watched carefully. A rally is not going to survivie a real recession. But rallies climb a wall of worry.