Jobless recovery proven by Stats - Help Wanted Index Down 1 point in April

[papau]

The jobless recovery is something the media adults will not talk about.

The help wanted index in April was 38, one point below the reading of 39 in March - and for the year over year change- The index was 37 one year ago. After a 500 billion deficit, ad volume is up in a year - slightly.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwanted.cfm

Does anyone wonder why the media hides this number?

:-)

- plus a bit more note should be taken by the media of the fact that after-tax corporate profits rose a tepid 1.4 percent in the January-March period, the weakest profit performance since the first quarter of last year, when earnings fell.

And some media might refrain from burying or ignoring the fact the GDP growth was at a faster pace because of inventory building - indeed it caused the upward revision to GDP. Businesses added to stocks at a $28.2 billion annual rate, well above the $15.3 billion pace estimated a month ago.

Good grief, restocking added three-quarters of a percentage point to first-quarter economic growth - and of course government spending was slightly stronger than first reported - and nobody wants to discuss this.

[burythehatchet]

1. Where to start

First of all, there is NO recovery. Therefore it cannot be a jobless recovery.

bushco has stolen approximately 200 billion dollars from yours and my children. But it would be a little awkward to put this money straight into their bank account. So its channelled through the privatization of our military. This money does work its way through the economy, so we see the little upticks in the economic numbers.

Further, the ridiculously low interest rates have led to mortgages getting refinanced in record numbers. Why is that important? Because when most people refinanced they took equity out of their homes. Then they spent that equity. Therefore, we're swimming in $30 vcr's, but we have no wealth left. When interest rates go up, POOF!

We are spending our future, and the BFEE is stealing the treasury blind. With all that consumption the fact that the economy still where it is, makes our economy as vulnerable as any country in the world.

Unless some sanity returns, we're fucked.

[Frodo]

2. "Does anyone wonder why the media hides this number?"

It isn't particularly well understood. It also doesn't corelate as well to what people think it is.

For instance - according to the report... In march, the index only fell from 40 to 39, but the percentage of markets that saw increased want-ad volume went down from 63% to 22% (a pretty substantial drop).

The April report just released showed a continuing drop from 39 to 38 in the index, but and increase in the percentage of markets that saw increased want-ad volume from 22% to 43%.

I think the number itself is not much watched, but does factor in to the leading indicators number.

[papau]

3. MY LEADING INDICATORS: - Ad's not part of it?

MY LEADING INDICATORS:

M1 Money Supply
M2 Money Supply
3-Month Percent Change in Sensitive Materials Prices
New Orders for Consumer Goods
New Orders Non-Defense Capital Goods
New Housing Permits
Ratio of Manufacturing and Trade Sales to Inventories
Vendor Performance, Slower Deliveries Diffusion Index
Index of Common Stock Prices
Average Workweek in Manufacturing
Initial Claims for State Unemployment Insurance
3-Month Percent Change in Consumer Debt


Conferemnce Board version:
Leading Indicators. Four of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, real money supply*, building permits, and stock prices. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor – were average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*, vendor performance, index of consumer expectations, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods*, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted).

The leading index now stands at 115.9 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in March and remained unchanged in February. During the six-month span through April, the leading index increased 1.8 percent, with nine out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 90 percent).

Coincident Indicators. All four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were industrial production, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments*, and manufacturing and trade sales*.

The coincident index now stands at 116.8 (1996=100). This index increased 0.2 percent in March and increased 0.3 percent in February. During the six-month period through April, the coincident index increased 1.4 percent.

Lagging Indicators.The lagging index stands at 98.0 (1996=100) in April, with five of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in CPI for services, commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, change in labor cost per unit of output*, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales* and average prime rate charged by banks held steady in April. Based on revised data, the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March and decreased 0.2 percent in February.

[Frodo]

4. My mistake

I misread a page on the conference board site and ran two paragraphs together.



Just ignore me as usual.... :-)


"Nine out of ten" of the leading indicators were up over the last year eh? Not bad.

[papau]

5. I find it useful to just count or note the first mistake in last hour -

otherwise I keep getting these large counts for "mistakes" - and my kids will remind me of that count - no need for me to keep track!

Indeed being told I made a mistake is 80% of the under 10 crowd of grandchildren's comments to me - so without the mistake - I am rather ignored!

:toast:

:-)