From an article on Fed policy at
http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/11/news/economy/fed_comments/The Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) weekly leading index, which telegraphed the strong economic growth of recent quarters, fell this week to the lowest level in more than a year.
Unfortunately, this doesn't necessarily mean the Fed can relax; the ECRI's inflation gauge, like other inflation measures, is still pointing higher, according to ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.
"Right now, we have a slowdown in the economy to trend growth or lower clearly in front of us, which will show up by the end of summer or the fall," Achuthan said. "At the same time, inflation pressures as far as we can see, the next couple of quarters, will continue to rise."
"The Fed's in a bit of a box."