Manipulation on Labor Statistics

[Robert Oak]

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5415670

<snip>
U.S. jobless rate misses "hidden" unemployed
Mon Jun 14, 2004 09:57 AM ET
By Victoria Thieberger

NEW YORK, June 14 (Reuters) - Buried inside the official U.S. employment report each month is a little-known figure that gives a much less rosy picture of the labor market than the headlines.

The government agency that produces the data also publishes an alternative measure that tries to capture the hidden unemployed, those who are not included in the official unemployment rate for various statistical reasons.

That broader measure is dramatically higher, at 9.7 percent in May, compared with the official level of 5.6 percent.

</snip>

[joeybee12]

1. Yup, Bush IS the new Reagan! Reagan had 10% unemployment

in his first 3 years in office--the comparisions between the two are just staggering!

[tritsofme]

2. I'm not quite sure how this is manipulation....

The U3 number has always been reported as the official unemployment rate.

U6 has never been considered the offical unemployment rate, and yes that does stand at 9.7%, interestingly it is the same as May 1996, so it is not historically horrible.

This is a graph of U6 unemployment going back to 1994(it only goes back that far).

[swinney]

3. Job stats strange

Can you recall a series of GDP increases then six weeks later revisions always upward.

First Q was first listed at 4.1--then upped to 4.4 now back to 3.9.

Something gives.


I trust permanent employees of BLS but Newt forced changes to reflect better news through top management

CBO head June O'Neill would not cooperate so Newt zapped her.

[tritsofme]

4. GDP is calculated by the BEA, not BLS.

And if IIRC this is first downward revision of a GDP since either Q4 2002 or Q1 2003.

Most of the downward revision in yesterday's number was attributed to a higher amount of imports than originally thought, which are subtracted from GDP.

I think we are looking at growth closer to around 4% for the year as opposed to the 4.5-5% predicted by some pundits.

We see advance Q2 numbers next month, and June jobs report comes out on Friday.