If you read only one article on climate change....

[garybeck]

The Earth today stands in imminent peril

...and nothing short of a planetary rescue will save it from the environmental cataclysm of dangerous climate change. Those are not the words of eco-warriors but the considered opinion of a group of eminent scientists writing in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

By Steve Connor, Science Editor, The Independent

Published: 19 June 2007
Six scientists from some of the leading scientific institutions in the United States have issued what amounts to an unambiguous warning to the world: civilisation itself is threatened by global warming.

They also implicitly criticise the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for underestimating the scale of sea-level rises this century as a result of melting glaciers and polar ice sheets.

Instead of sea levels rising by about 40 centimetres, as the IPCC predicts in one of its computer forecasts, the true rise might be as great as several metres by 2100. That is why, they say, planet Earth today is in "imminent peril".

In a densely referenced scientific paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A some of the world's leading climate researchers describe in detail why they believe that humanity can no longer afford to ignore the "gravest threat" of climate change.

"Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures," the scientists say. Only intense efforts to curb man-made emissions of carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases can keep the climate within or near the range of the past one million years, they add.

The researchers were led by James Hansen, the director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who was the first scientist to warn the US Congress about global warming.

The other scientists were Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha and Gary Russell, also of the Goddard Institute, David Lea of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Mark Siddall of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York.

In their 29-page paper, "Climate Change and trace gases", the scientists frequently stray from the non-emotional language of science to emphasise the scale of the problems and dangers posed by climate change.

In an email to The Independent, Dr Hansen said: "In my opinion, among our papers this one probably does the best job of making clear that the Earth is getting perilously close to climate changes that could run out of our control."

the rest of the story:
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2675747.ece

[bananas]

1. abstract and pdf

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2007/Hansen_etal_2.html

[Gregorian]

2. I wish I could communicate what I see.

People are not getting it. And to make things worse, this problem is a delayed one. We aren't even seeing the results of our immediate actions. That has two major implications. One is that things are going to get worse, no matter what. And... I can't do this justice.


People, this is about how we live, and how many are living it. It's what YOU are doing. And it's what THEY did before we got here. I'm sure none of this means anything to anyone but a few people here.

Ultimately what I'm trying to say is that we are faced with two issues. Population and our carbon footprints. But the biggest problem I see is how to get people to change. How to get them to take this personally.

Here's what I posted yesterday that went completely under the radar. And then I'll tell a story about something that happened to me yesterday.

Take what Al Gore has said and then personalize it. That is exactly what everyone is missing. I'm not just some guy ranting. This is a subject I've been paying attention to long before Gore came along. It's so obvious, yet I suppose I'd have to write a book to open people's eyes.

The bottom line is number of people combined with what they are doing. The problem is twofold. And people don't seem to be connecting the two. What Gore is saying is great. But unless people connect it with population, they'll never make that connection. Which is, thinking in terms of we versus me. And there is a reason people aren't making that connection. It has made my life really difficult. And it should. It's the only way we are going to curb the increasing carbon footprint that is going to destroy this planet. Or at least alter it in a way that will change it dramatically. That connection leads to the realization that each one of us is doing this. Not just some obscure notion that it's happening. Each one of us has the responsibility to change what we are doing. To sacrifice. That is the word that is so threatening.

The thing that is so obvious is the use of petroleum. Oh it's just one seat on a plane. It's just me, one time. It's something everyone has to do. Bush is an idiot, he doesn't even like to travel. Travel broadens the mind. All kinds of reasons why we should. And very little inspection as to what we need to do in order to stop the problem now. Because if not now, then when. The real problem is more related to the fact that there are six billion of us than it is to petroleum use. There is a point below which the planet can handle this kind of carbon dioxide production. But our numbers have exceeded that. And more. Now the forests are disappearing faster than they can grow. Number of users. There is no argument.

When you use petroleum, you have to realize that "you" is now billions of "you"s.

It's actually one of those things that can be put in binary terms. You either are causing global warming or you aren't. And that is what each of us is faced with.



I had a grim experience yesterday. I found a farm I possibly wanted to buy. I want a place to grow crops and live like humans used to live. It has a tiny house from 1920. It's on a river. It's near the Headwaters reserve in Humboldt county. Just up the street there are what remains of the oldest redwoods on earth. I contacted a neighbor last night. And luckily I did. He told me the whole story about the place. Thanks to everyone who wants lumber (population=demand), the clearcutting has let the rain just pummel the ground where there were no trees. And the runoff silted the river. So now instead of a nice farming area, the property is literally inaccessible for nearly two weeks out of each year. And fifty years ago there was never a flood day. Ever. The neighbors have watched this evolve over the years, and they would hardly let me off the phone since now they need a new place to put their septic since the county won't let them have a tank that is in the new flood zone, and they have no place to put it except up above on this farm. It's sad. And it's NOT about global warming. This is about population. This is the Bay Area needing a million homes worth of redwood in 1959.

Thanks to logging, I just missed out on yet another place to call home. And I just left my last place six months ago due to logging. But that was just not being able to sleep every night. Nothing serious.

We've identified the problem. Now we need to do something about it. Each person. Not just a leader making us change. Not just Al Gore.

And I'll even go a step further. Population is why we are in political trouble. More people equals more government. And I don't mean republican mantra less government here. I mean, as we grew to 300 million, and as we left farms and asked corporations to do everything for us, the corporations grew. And you all know the rest of the story.

[phantom power]

3. unfortunately, humans have no intuition for either hysteresis or exponential functions.

The outlook for raising consciousness is rather grim. It's only getting some traction now because the actual effects are starting to become immediately visible. Which means it's already too late to stop some major fraction of what's coming.

[Gregorian]

4. Until now we didn't have to. In a modern world we must.

I think it's a responsibility of people living like this to be aware of what they are doing. And I do mean right down to the details. Until then the idiots that live down the street from me can mindlessly pilot their cars down this street every day. I watch. Back and forth. It's like they buy the milk. Then they run off for the eggs. Or something. Maybe he has special diabetes that requires an injection five times a day. Here I am on what was the quietest street in California. Now it's a small freeway. I'm still reeling after being here half a year. I can't leave fast enough. What a disaster. Not just ecologically, but mentally. I feel totally trapped.

I was aware of all of this as a very young person. But when I saw the exponential graph of world population growth, and fully understood it, I blew up. That was the moment when the full awareness of the danger sank in.

All I'm saying is, you're right. And what I'm saying is "Now what?". My answer to that question is so frightening. I don't think things are going to change in time. What is set in place is not going anywhere.

My lack of brevity comes from thirty years of total disbelief. If people think Bush was bad, just wait until the realize what we do.

[garybeck]

5. never give up hope

i agree it's bleek but I never give up hope, and I believe that the power of human consciousness to change things is greatly untapped. ever hear of that experiment where lots of people in the DC area all medidated under a coordinated effort and the crime rate went down significantly? there's so much we could do if we just put our minds to it.

[phantom power]

6. I have hope for some things, but not others.

There is a point past which some consequences simply become inescapable, and hoping about that sort of thing is a waste of time. If you fall off a three story building, you can hope that you'll live, but it's a waste of time to hope for a soft landing.

I have a fair amount of hope that humans as a species will survive what's coming. I have less hope that the survivors will learn any lasting lessons from the ordeal. If some core of civilization survives, that is capable of preserving the history of what led up to 21st century, that civilization has a good chance to preserve some valuable lessons. Otherwise, I highly doubt it. By the time any civilization rises again, any memories of the blunders we made will be long forgotten.

I have no hope whatsoever that we are going to avoid a period of chaos and loss. In fact, I think indulging in that particular hope may actually be dangerous, to the extent that it delays action.

[Delphinus]

7. This is a wonderfully,

well thought out thread. Everyone who has spoken here has shared much and I thank you.

Phantom, in regard to your statement: I have no hope whatsoever that we are going to avoid a period of chaos and loss. In fact, I think indulging in that particular hope may actually be dangerous, to the extent that it delays action.

This brings up something that has been gnawing at me for a very long time - when I saw An Inconvenient Truth, it seemed like everyone NEEDED to walk away feeling there was hope. Even some other workshops I've attended on Global Climate Change - the presenters went out of their way to make sure when people left, they had hope that something good would happen to ameliorate the situation. Although I am like Gary Beck in feeling that the power of the unconscious has yet to be tapped, hope based on a false premise is a horrible place to start. We need to be honest about what our situation, what our dire straits are, and go forward from there.

And, Gregorian, I understand what you are saying about the population - I've thrown my two-cents worth in on that in a few E/E threads, always wondering if I was going to get whittled down to nothing. Thankfully, I think most of us over here in this forum understand.

[RestoreGore]

8. Fantastic response

I wish I could recommend responses because yours would definitely get one. It is about us and all of us realizing the end results of what we do. Such a simple concept, yet people on the whole for whatever reason seem to be having great difficulty dealing with it. Thank you for your insight.