In Notice To US Stock Markets, PEMEX Says It Has 7 Years' Worth Of Reserves Left - Prensa

[hatrack]

Mexico, Jul 27 (Prensa Latina) Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years. "Supplies of this economically exploitable resource are running out," informed a report sent by the state owned company to the United States stock market.

Until December 31, 2005 the report says proven reserves were about 8.978 billion barrels, while yearly production was 1.322 billion tons. If this rhythm continues oil will run out in the time stipulated..

El Universal newspaper reports that experts of the PFC Energy Advisory company based in Washington pointed out that investments for PEMEX exploration is also running out of time.

Even if heavy investments were made now, new oil fields would take from six to eight years to be ready and, consequently, Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the internal market, it warned.

EDIT

http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BF1F8B8FE-DA99-4717-8FBD-2B3C4F90FBA3%7D%29&language=EN

[phantom power]

1. Holy hell, they actually *said* that?

In public?

[peacetalksforall]

2. About six? months ago, someone posted an article saying new

fields/sources had been found? Maybe it was gas.

[jbonkowski]

3. He's only talking about Mexico's domestic oil field.

Relax.

[Nihil]

4. Umm ... Mexico are currently an oil exporter so ...

> The director of the state owned company, Jesus Reyes, insisted that these
> are difficult moments due to a reduction of production in Cantareli, the
> main oil field in the country.

+

> ... Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the internal market, it warned.

=

Brutally honest admission of shit hitting fan in near future.

[GliderGuider]

5. An R/P of 7 is just part of the picture.

They're saying that they have enough proved reserves for 7 years of production at current rates. While it's worrying that they're saying this out loud, there are 3 other things to keep in mind.

1. They may add to their reserves. They did announce a new find, Noxal, with great fanfare last year. Unfortunately, they have made such announcements in the past only to restate their importance after further testing. Even if Noxal proves out, it will take 5 to 10 years to bring it on line. They have little in the bag beyond that. They are down to Hail Mary plays at this point.

2. As production rates decline over time, the R/P will stretch out, meaning less oil will last longer as it is produced slower.

But the biggie is:

3. Net exports are going to decline much faster than production. The Mexican administration will probably have to try and stave off internal revolt by keeping their rising domestic demand supplied first. I expect to see Mexican oil exports go to 0 within 3 years. For the USA that is a big deal.

[amandabeech]

6. I am in complete agreement.

Mexico will destabilize over this, and that will not be favorable to the U.S.

On the other hand, the destabilization could force Mexico to accept foreign investment, which might help it keep Cantarell going longer and help develop new fields, if done properly scientifically and politically.

Of course, the oil will still run out.

If Mexico stops exporting, it may force many important folks to wake up and take the transportation energy problem seriously.

I assume that you visit theoildrum from time to time. It's a great site.

[GliderGuider]

7. Mexico is past the point where investment will help.

The net export problem is the one people need to start paying close attention to. It's going to bite the world a lot sooner and a lot harder than simple oil field declines.

You guessed correctly, I visit The Oil Drum a lot. In fact I read just about everything that gets posted there, plus 90% of the comments. It's the best oil and energy site out there right now. They were even kind enough to put up one of my articles as a keypost (Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room). It caused a lot less acrimony than I expected, given that it's about a possible (probable?) population crash triggered by Peak Oil. For some reason most people object to being asked to consider such a thing....

[4dsc]

11. Yet 99% of the sheeple sleep

The reason most people will sleep through the coming crisis is do to the fact they dont' bleive it(peak oil) can or will happen.. They are living in a make believe world created by oil and thus cannot imagine a world in which oil is not there..

It reminds of the recent article by Graham Strouts about "The free energy delusion" in which he writes:


Beliefs in “free energy” are common amongst the beneficiaries of the oil industry- ie middle-class consumers in the West- and I believe this is because fossil energy and the technology it has made possible has created for us a mythical fairy-tale world in which all our dreams and fantasies can be answered. Peak Energy seems to have brought with it Peak Fantasy.It has kept us in a state like little children believing that anything is possible if only we just believe. Father Christmas will always come on time, or the Fairy Godmother, wave his or her magic wand and give us all the goodies and free energy we could wish for.

Unfortunately- or perhaps fortunately- the world just doesnt work like this. We are indeed in this physical realm inescapably tied to the rules of the game which are the Laws of Thermodynamics. It is painful to grow up but that is what we are called upon to do if we want to find appropriate responses to the end of the Oil Age.

[amandabeech]

12. I skimmed your post, and am in general agreement,

although I am not as pessimistic as you are. And I still think that the Mexicans could use some money.

One my pet concerns is that here in the U.S., we are paving over first class farmland that generally gets sufficient rainfall to grow a variety of crops. Even with global warming, some of these acres will still be useful for small grains or grazing, and with a little irrigation from electric pumps, could churn out veggies, beans and some corn, which is an incredibly useful crop but hard on soil.

When I lived in Pennsylvania, there was a huge issue in Lancaster County, former home of the Amish. The issue was rezoning farmland to commercial so that you could put used-car places on former farms as Phillie expanded westward. In the Harrisburg area, where I lived, former pastures started sprouting McMansions. In the D.C. are where I now live, I've rented a temporary space near Shady Grove Metro that crowds townhouses and condos onto a former dairy farm.

And where are we going to get the phosphorus? I wish that we were recycling every bit of that precious mineral that emerges from the digestive systems of every living thing. Today's agricultural practices, particularly animal husbandry produces liquid instead of solid wastes that are difficult to return to fields without contaminating streams, etc.

I have mixed feelings about immigration's relationship to the farmland issue. I think that our growing population is one of the reasons why we're chewing up farmland along with others like McMansions. We have 100,000,000 more people than we had in 1970 or thereabouts. You have to put them somewhere.

[phantom power]

8. The most interesting bit: I haven't seen any evidence that the stock markets get it.

[NickB79]

9. That border fence is starting to look better all the time

I hate myself for saying that :(

[Dead_Parrot]

13. Depends which way round they built it

Peak oil won't be a picnic for the US, either: At least the average Mexican has less to loose.

[hunter]

14. The "less to lose" argument has a lot going for it.

I'm not at all certain the U.S. middle class has the cultural resources to deal with this sort of economic disaster. The Great Depression was a long time ago.

[4dsc]

10. And 20 years of reserves for the USA!!

Oh we are living in interesting times!!