UN Climate Forecast For India Makes For Grim Reading - Mail & Guardian

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Global climate change is likely to result in severe droughts and floods in the world's biggest democracy, with major impacts on human health and food supplies, according to India's report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. And India is not alone, according to other reports available on the Science and Development Network. An earlier UN report from Namibia predicts "extreme" impacts on water, fish stocks and agriculture in Southern Africa, resulting in economic hardship, food security problems, social conflict, displacement and increased disease.

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The report predicts that maximum temperatures will increase by two to four degrees Celsius over the next 50 years, with northern India expected to experience the greatest increase. This corresponds with claims made earlier this year by scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, who predicted "phenomenal" temperature increases. Rainfall patterns are also set to change. Western and central areas could have up to 15 more dry days each year, while in contrast, the north and north-east are predicted to have five to 10 more days of rain annually. In other words, dry areas will get drier and wet areas wetter.

The report predicts that the area of India prone to malaria will increase by at least 10% by 2080, as changing weather patterns will result in more potential breeding grounds for malarial mosquitoes at higher altitudes.

Most major river basins across the country are likely to become considerably drier, resulting in constant water shortages that will occasionally become acute, the report says. This could shift forest boundaries and affect biodiversity in the regions affected.

In coastal areas, the key climate-related risks include more frequent tropical cyclones and rises in sea level that will submerge mangrove forests and increase the salinity of wetlands. According to the report, if sea levels were to rise by 1m, more than seven million people in India could be displaced and more than 5 000 square kilometres of land and 4 000 kilometres of roads could be lost."

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